Jeremy & Gareth, having skipped a week, cover the macro news of the last fortnight.

Trump's new tariff "magic money tree" has encouraged him to ramp up the rhetoric on tariffs. Critically, the inflationary impact of higher tariffs is now coming into focus, impacting the growing feud between the White House and the Federal Reserve.

Japan has struck a deal with the US, but the EU and China are awaiting their turn. Both of these larger trading partners present difficulties that the market seems relatively sanguine about. The risk that China plays hardball has been all but discounted.

Macro data shows that inflation remains elevated in both the US and the UK. The UK labour market has softened over the past eight months as the economy faces rising taxes in the Budget and the government deals with higher-than-expected borrowing.

EY has reported on the highest level of UK profit warnings in 25 years. Several businesses, such as Treatt and Judges, have warned due to exposure to the US market and the weaker dollar. The UK market, meanwhile, continues to move higher, which appears to be more a result of capital flows than fundamentals.

Gareth discusses recent results from Van Elle and Severfield in the construction space.

Looking ahead, it is jobs week in the US, which should indicate a further slowing in the labour market. Additionally, the Fed Chair's press conference should be worth watching, even though no one is expecting any movement in rates.

We also receive the BoJ rate decision, which, as ever, can send shockwaves through the rest of the world's financial markets. Let's see.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss how an emboldened Trump has raised the tariff temperature while also considering the potential for a version of the future to be one of US economic growth. But whatever the path forward, Paul Tudor Jones' mantra, that all roads lead to inflation, seems increasingly appropriate.

Risk assets continue their march higher with Nvidia and Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. Nvidia is the first company to be valued at over $4 trillion.

In the UK, Gareth talks about housebuilder Springfield and merchanting business Lords Trading as prime examples of UK small-cap companies executing well on sensible capital allocation policies.

Looking ahead, it is mainly about inflation with data releases in the US, the UK and Japan.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Jeremy and Gareth discuss the week's macro market news and developments, comparing the plight of the Trump and Starmer administrations, which are six months and a year in, respectively. The differing outcomes, at least in part, reflect the degree to which the bond markets constrain the UK government more than the US.

We are halfway through 2025 and have had a turbulent Q2. Equity markets are recovering everywhere, but persistent dollar weakness has made the US seem less exceptional than usual.

In H2, the pressure will be on Scott Bessent to deliver some magic in the treasury markets and refinance well over a $1 trillion of longer-duration paper. The stronger-than-expected labour market, as measured by the non-farm payrolls yesterday, is not helpful. He is still wishing for a 10-year rate below 4.

The UK equity market remains attractive, and there are signs that the IPO market may reopen during H2. Let's see.

We discuss Secure Trust Bank's decision to put its motor finance activity into run-off, which investors appear to have welcomed. However, it is a sign that the regulations are driving this lending activity away from the transparency of the PLC world, which would be a shame.

Looking ahead, we have some UK GDP data, and Wednesday marks the deadline for Trump's tariffs, which could lead to increased volatility.