Jeremy and Gareth discuss the week's events, with a greater focus on the UK, following the Reeves bombshell overnight that she has pivoted away from her previous indication that she would raise income tax for the first time in 50 years at the upcoming Budget on November 26th.

This suggestion across most front pages today has thrown the gilts and the value of the pound into some turmoil.

Meanwhile, in the US, the government is reopening, but to the realisation that continuing to borrow without spending has exacerbated tight dollar liquidity, as evidenced by the sharp fall in Bitcoin.

We are entering a more volatile market phase amid the absence of official US government data on October's employment and inflation. Essentially, investors must fly blind through a period of stormy weather. What could go wrong?

In the UK equity market, despite the politics, things are looking incrementally better, with the IPO market showing signs of fully opening up.

Gareth highlights FDM and Jeremy 4imprint as examples of how to cope with difficult times and manage expectations. Both companies had inline or marginal upgrades, and their share prices responded strongly.

Looking ahead, with the US remaining quiet, it's about inflation data from the UK and Japan, both high and sticky, and increasingly problematic.

Investors in the UK will be on the latest developments from the rumour mill at No. 11. In the US, investors will be looking for unofficial signs that the authorities might be prepared to loosen conditions to ease the impact of the shutdown.

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This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss a relatively calm week in the markets - China and the USA have reached a deal of sorts, the USD is slightly stronger but not so strong as to cause trouble elsewhere. The Fed is confused (and will be careful, likely meaning rates staying higher) because America remains in Federal shutdown and data is scarce. Still, US equity markets remain robust, and Elon Musk is rejoicing at his trillion-dollar deal.

The UK, however, is still quaking at the impending budget, with so many possible taxes discussed that they can't all be needed...there may even be relief once the bad news is out. Trainline's results looked solid, but Tim Martin at Wetherspoon used a trading update as a platform to berate the government on everything from corporate regulation to nuclear power.

Next week - and perhaps many weeks to come - will see the US Supreme Court deliberate the legality of Trump's tariffs...so this week's lack of fireworks may be a postponement rather than a cancellation. What will happen when Liberation Day meets its own Judgement Day...?

Jeremy and Gareth discussed the week's main market news, starting with the historic meeting between Trump and Xi, and praised Treasury Secretary Bessent for his role in positioning the market.

The Fed FOMC delivered a hawkish rate cut, which sent markets higher; however, things might get more uncertain as the US government shutdown starts to affect the collection of macroeconomic data for future releases.

They also discuss the improved prospects for Javier Milei to deliver his small-state solution in Argentina, following a surprisingly positive congressional midterm election result.

Meanwhile, the Mag Seven US mega tech companies continue their remarkable rise, with Nvidia still the clear winner. And the primary constraint on these tech titans' ambitions is reliable baseload energy, so it was unsurprising that Bill Gates and the UK government are signalling a retreat from specific net-zero policies and targets.

Finally, the backdrop and outlook for the UK's stock market is looking and feeling more positive than perhaps was feared only a few weeks ago, ahead of next month's Budget. A string of IPOs and anecdotal evidence, including the update from broker Cavendish, suggests we could have a better run into year-end after the Budget is out of the way.

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This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the fragile peace in hot wars and trade wars.

There is a sense of finality about Trump's latest attempts to get Putin and Zelensky to agree on ceasefire terms. Trump is losing patience with both parties. The choice of Budapest as the location for Trump and Putin's meeting was no coincidence.

Meanwhile, Trump's on-and-off talks with Xi seem to be on again. The prospect of an emergent Grand Bargain remains on the table, giving equity markets hope.

Asset markets saw a significant rotation on Tuesday, with a dramatic collapse in precious metals prices and a spike in bond prices, leading to a decline in key sovereign yields. Helpful for both Rachel Reeves and Scott Bessent.

However, it remains unclear if this is just a short-term price correction in gold or a longer-term structural shift. Should investors, still fearful of the pending fiat collapse, buy the dip in precious metals?

Similarly, one needs to ask why bond yields are falling. Jeremy doesn't think there is any reassessment of governments' fiscal responsibility, but rather that it reflects worries about slowing economies or worsening credit quality in private markets.

Regarding the ongoing debate on the AI bubble, they discuss whether former UK deputy PM Nick Clegg can add any value to the issue. What do you think?

Looking ahead, Jeremy covers imminent US and Japanese inflation data and also notes the prospect for updates from the Mag Seven NASDAQ giants over the coming few weeks.

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This week, Jeremy and Gareth consider Trump's quick switch from declaring peace in the Middle East to opening a (new) trade war with China - which has almost as quickly subsided, with the Trump/Xi meeting now "back on".

Jeremy highlights the ongoing strength of gold - FOMO bubble or long-term trend driven by debasement of currencies ? And the great rewards of being a gold miner - with unparalleled revenue per ounce, and costs of drilling and transport (often oil-based) in decline.

Bitcoin hasn't participated in the recent gold rally - although over a longer timeframe than the last few months, it has hugely outperformed. Perhaps both can be safe havens in a world of unaffordable government debt and spiralling-down currencies ?

Meanwhile equity markets have been relatively stable, although slightly spooked by the current pressure on US lenders, driven by greater-than-apparent losses flowing from a number of insolvencies that shouldn't have rippled the way they have.

Gareth talks about Gear4Music, Sanderson Design Group and Oxford Metrics, all of which this week have highlighted decent trading (or better) along with the benefit of much cost-control, in each case well received by investors.

Next week we have Chinese growth data and UK inflation which could exceed 4% for the first time in over a year. The end of the week will bring US inflation (they're still publishing despite the government shutdown) - anything much above 3.0% will both rattle markets and possibly cost someone at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics their job. Finally, don't forget Japan...Friday also brings their latest inflation print; as always we better hope there's nothing too surprising.

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the highlights of the last week in financial markets.

Gold (and other precious metals) move to all-time highs, representing a foot on the brake. What are they worried about? Well, there are emerging risks around credit conditions in private markets and increasing concerns that the AI capex cycle is turning into a fully fledged bubble, one that Jeff Bezos, no less, called a good bubble. Jeremy mentioned the under-reported British Bicycle Bubble of the 1890s. See link for details: https://www.historyhit.com/the-great-british-bicycle-bubble-of-1896/

Trump, the peacemaker, is making progress in the Middle East, but not in time to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize. However, the consequences for any deal could involve much lower oil prices and maybe a disruption to the ascent of precious metals prices.

Gareth discusses the UK car loan mis-selling update from the FCA, its impact on Vertu Motors and Secure Trust, and this week's results from Beeks Financial Cloud.

Looking forward, the macro news includes trade and inflation data from China, as well as employment and GDP data from the UK.

With the US government shut down, there are question marks over what to expect from the US market or whether the inflation data on October 15th will even be released.

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After a short break, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the current state of markets as we head into Q4 of 2025. Jeremy suggests that the US recession has been cancelled, and while the music is playing, equity investors feel compelled to dance.

Over Q3, the $ has stabilised and the £ has weakened. The US is "boom baby boom", while the UK is flatlining with no economic growth and a long wait for the Budget on November 26th.

The primary driver of growth in the US is a vast circular investment pattern in AI data centres. With increasing political pressure, the Fed is being compelled to initiate a rate-cutting cycle. However, AI might be a world-changing technological revolution, but as the dot-com bubble showed us, it can also be a financial bubble.

In a week that Open-AI was valued at $500bn Gareth talks about the similarities to the early 2000s.

To complete the bearish take, there are also some early signs of stress in the US credit sector, which some compare to the early stages of the GFC.

Gareth covers updates from some UK companies, including Pharos Energy, Watkin Jones, and Xaar, that continue to show resilient performance.

Finally, there are signs of life in the IPO market as Beauty Tech begins life as a new £300m market cap company, which might be the first of several new issues on their way to the London market in the coming months.

Looking forward, the US government shutdown has put the production of economic data in doubt, with the inflation numbers for October 15th also in question.

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Gareth and Jeremy discuss the key factors that have impacted financial markets over the past week and take a look ahead to what lies ahead for investors.

Bond markets got the yips over talks of IMF visits for France and the UK. However, no one informed the FX market, and the value of the £ remained solid, helped in part by the weakening of the $. However, it's all relative, and the real value of things is reflected in gold and other real assets.

US labour markets showed more signs of weakness, but with persistent inflation.

US tech giants continue to dominate, but with little scrutiny of the returns that their substantial AI capital expenditures might yield. Oracle was in the spotlight this week, with some extraordinary results, launching its founder back into the top spot on the world's richest person leader board.

Despite our volatile politics, UK equities remain in demand, and risk assets more broadly remain in good fettle.

The long wait for the UK Budget might be because they are working on a cunning plan for growth, or they are simply waiting for things to improve. Of course, both could be true. Either way is a frustrating wait.

Meanwhile, the results and updates offer a mixed bag, indicating that the UK consumer remains active.

Jeremy offers a view on Treatt's fall from grace and its Board's disappointing acceptance of the modestly pitched PE offer the company received this week.

Looking ahead, the main focus will be on the Fed's rate decision, where the overwhelming expectation is for a 25 bps cut to 4.25%.

But most people will be more interested in President Trump's second state visit to the UK, which begins on Tuesday. Shhh, nobody mention Jeffrey Epstein.

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