The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is entering a far more complex and dangerous phase than many expected.

In this conversation, I’m joined by Ali Vaez - Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President of the International Crisis Group to examine what is actually happening behind the headlines. Why the war has shifted into a grinding war of attrition, why Iran’s leadership prepared for a long confrontation rather than a quick collapse, and how the balance of power inside Iran may now be shifting toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

We also discuss the growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli strategic objectives, the limits of military escalation, and the wider regional risks—from Kurdish separatism to the possibility of a broader regional conflict drawing in major powers.

If the fighting stops, it may only produce a fragile ceasefire, not a real resolution.

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The United States has deployed one of its largest military buildups in the Middle East in decades — and yet, nothing has happened. So why assemble overwhelming force if conflict was never inevitable?

In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor at The Daily Telegraph, to unpack the real strategy behind America’s military pressure on Iran. We explore how Donald Trump is using military leverage to force a new nuclear deal, why Iran’s weakened regional position has shifted the balance, and how Tehran is relying on diplomacy, Russia, and China to survive.

This is a conversation about coercion, credibility, and why the most powerful military deployments are often designed not to be used — but to reshape the negotiating table.

Chapters

00:00 The Military Buildup and Its Implications

10:01 Iran's Current Position and Internal Dynamics

19:57 The Role of External Influences and Regional Dynamics

29:42 Future Scenarios: Engagement or Conflict?

Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin

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Summary

In this episode I engage Larissa Brown, the defence editor at The Times, to discuss the current state of geopolitics, defence dynamics, and the implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They explore insights from the Munich Security Conference, the UK's defence spending, military readiness, and the evolving threat posed by Russia. The conversation also delves into the US-UK defence relationship, public sentiment on military spending, and the challenges facing the UK military in terms of manpower and logistics. As they look ahead, they consider the impact of populism on European defence and the importance of collaboration among European nations.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Geopolitics and Defense Dynamics

02:38 Insights from the Munich Security Conference

05:41 Assessing the UK Military's Readiness

08:26 The Threat of Russia and Hybrid Warfare

11:22 UK's Defense Spending and Political Challenges

14:08 The US-UK Defense Relationship

16:43 European Strategic Autonomy and Cooperation

19:36 The Role of Drones in Modern Warfare

22:28 Joint Operations Against ISIS and Future Threats

25:02 The Future of UK Defense and European Relations

28:17 Looking Ahead: Key Global Events and Developments

Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin

• X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin
• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/

• Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit
• Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit

Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me?

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