On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs on Liberation Day, promising an investment boom, massive revenue, debt reduction, and lower prices. One year later, Kyle Hulehan and Erica York dig into the data to see how those promises held up.

0:00 - Liberation Day speech recap
2:00 - Were the tariffs actually "reciprocal"?
5:30 - The real math behind the tariff formula
10:00 - Market reactions and policy chaos
14:00 - The promised investment boom that never arrived
17:30 - Tariff revenue vs. projections and the national debt
22:00 - Who actually paid the tariffs?
25:30 - Business uncertainty and real-world impacts
29:30 - Could any version of these tariffs have worked?
36:00 - The five broken promises of Liberation Day
37:00 - What comes next after the Supreme Court ruling

Resources:
Tax Foundation Tariff Tracker: https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/
Tax Foundation Trade & Tariff Research: https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/topics/trade/
Subscribe to the Tax Foundation: https://taxfoundation.org/subscribe/

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AI is everywhere, and now it's in the tax policy debate. In this episode of The Deduction, hosts Kyle Hulehan and Erica York sit down with Alex Muresianu, Senior Policy Analyst at the Tax Foundation. Together they examine what current labor market data actually shows, why proposals from Senators Sanders and Kelly risk backfiring, and what smarter reforms like worker retraining deductions and consumption-based taxation would strengthen the tax code no matter how the AI story unfolds.

Connect with the Guests

Kyle Hulehan — Host, Senior Marketing Associate and Creative Producer Tax Foundation: taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/kyle-hulehan

Erica York — Co-Host, Vice President of Federal Tax Policy Tax Foundation: taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/erica-york Twitter/X: @ericadyork LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/erica-york-a68ab474 Substack: ericadyork.substack.com

Alex Muresianu — Senior Policy Analyst, Federal Tax Policy Tax Foundation: taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/alex-muresianu Twitter/X: @ahardtospell LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/alex-muresianu-2b1802181

Related Reading

• "When Taxing AI, Don't Reinvent the Wheel" — Alex Muresianu, Tax Foundation
• The Deduction Podcast
• Questions? Email: podcast@taxfoundation.org | Twitter: @DeductionPod

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Last Friday, the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs in a landmark 6-3 decision. In this episode of The Deduction, hosts Kyle Hulehan and Erica York break down what the ruling actually means, from how collections could be refunded to how the administration is already scrambling to put new tariffs in place. Erica walks through why businesses may face even more uncertainty in the near term as a messy patchwork of replacement tariffs takes shape.

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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 – Weekend tariff chaos and IEEPA "pdu"
2:00 – What the Supreme Court decided on IEEPA tariffs
4:36 – Which tariffs were struck down (Liberation Day, fentanyl, and more)
5:42 – Will importers get refunds on $160 billion in unlawful collections?
7:54 – Does the ruling improve the economic outlook?
9:00 – What tariff authority does the president still have?
9:42 – Updated Tax Foundation tariff model numbers
12:00 – Section 122 explained: 150-day tariffs and legal questions
14:00 – Section 232, Section 301, and the coming patchwork of tariffs
15:42 – The compliance and administrative waste of tariff policy
17:00 – Can Congress step in and reclaim tariff authority?

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RESOURCES:
Tax Foundation Tariff Tracker: https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/
Tax Foundation IEEPA Tariff Analysis: https://taxfoundation.org/tags/ieepa/

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CONTACT:
Email: podcast@taxfoundation.org
Twitter/X: @DeductionPod
Twitter/X: @EricaDYork
Drop a comment below with your tax questions.

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ABOUT:
The Deduction is a podcast by the Tax Foundation, the world's leading independent tax policy nonprofit. The Tax Foundation has been providing trusted, nonpartisan tax research and analysis since 1937.

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The One Big Beautiful Bill Act capped off a hectic year for tax policy. It extended key Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions, reshaped the outlook for 2026, and raised fresh questions about the deficit.

In this episode, Kyle Hulehan and Erica York are joined by Daniel Bunn, President and CEO, and Jared Walczak, Vice President of State Projects, to break down what the law did, walk through our projections, and zoom out to other defining fights of 2025: Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, the Supreme Court challenge over presidential tariff power, and the growing wave of property tax revolts across the states.

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In this episode of The Deduction podcast, host Kyle Hulehan and co-host Erica York are joined by Alex Durante, Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, to discuss the Supreme Court's upcoming decision on whether the president can impose $2.2 trillion in tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

The conversation covers the origins and implications of these tariffs, their economic impact on consumers and businesses, and the potential outcomes of the court ruling. They also explore the broader theme of presidential authority in trade regulation and the possible legislative responses. Stay tuned for an insightful breakdown of the tariff landscape and its future implications.

00:00 Introduction and Bananas

00:36 Welcome to The Deduction Podcast

01:15 Tariffs and Presidential Authority

04:15 Impact of Tariffs on Consumers and Businesses

06:58 Bananas as a Case Study

08:42 Personal Stories of Tariff Impact

10:43 Legal Battle Over Tariffs

14:25 Future of Tariff Policies

20:53 Congress vs. Presidential Power

23:32 Conclusion and Listener Engagement

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Property tax repeal would put roughly 70 percent of local tax revenue on the line—forcing states and localities to find something else. Can sales or income taxes really replace it without major rate spikes, burden shifts, and anti-growth incentives?

Kyle Hulehan is joined by Jared Walczak, Vice President of State Projects at Tax Foundation, to unpack the math behind replacement plans, the trade-offs voters should know about, and why reform may beat repeal.

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In this episode of The Deduction, host Kyle Hulehan discusses the complexities of the US tax system with Alex Muresianu, Senior Policy Analyst at the Tax Foundation. They delve into the staggering 7.1 billion hours Americans spend on tax compliance every year, and explore the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on simplifying and complicating the tax code. Key topics include the permanence of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions, the introduction of new deductions, and the challenges and missed opportunities for structural tax reform. They also discuss the significant costs associated with tax compliance and suggest potential reforms for the future. Join us for an insightful conversation on the intricacies of the US tax system and the path ahead.

Links:

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/obbba-income-tax-complexity-tax-breaks/

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-tax-changes/

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Congress may have passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), but state lawmakers now face big choices. Most states link their tax codes to the federal system, meaning OBBBA’s provisions—good and bad—are about to ripple across state budgets.

In this episode, we explain why federal tax changes can automatically affect your state tax bill, the costly new personal deductions with limited benefits, and the pro-growth business provisions that remove barriers to investment and jobs.

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