Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Brace as Trump's Iran Ultimatum Nears

Global markets are on high alert as a critical geopolitical deadline approaches. Investors are focused on President Donald Trump’s 8:00 PM ET (6:30 AM IST, Wednesday) ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with threats of military escalation if a deal is not reached.

WTI Crude Oil climbed to $115 as President Trump reaffirmed his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges. The Strait, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, has remained disrupted since the conflict began on February 28, driving crude prices up approximately 90% year-to-date.

Iran dismissed a U.S.-backed 45-day ceasefire proposal supported by mediators including Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye, instead demanding a permanent end to hostilities, sanctions relief, and war damage compensation.

U.S. stocks advanced on Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.44%, the Nasdaq rising 0.54%, and the Dow adding 165 points, as investors parsed mixed signals on Iran negotiations. However, overnight futures retreated as Trump's escalating rhetoric dampened optimism for a ceasefire.

The rupee appreciated by 4 paise supported by risk-on sentiment fuelled by hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East.

The Nifty climbed 255 points to close at 22,968, marking its third consecutive session of gains. Nifty has never risen for more than three consecutive trading sessions since the U.S-Iran War started in late February. Whether this streak holds or breaks will be the defining market moment of today's session.

The short-term resistance for the Nifty is at 23,465, with supports at 22,800 and 22,540.

Our markets are slated to open half a percent lower on the back of cautious global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Pin Hope on Early Resolution to the Hormuz Crisis

The weekend offered no respite - fighting in the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict intensified, peace talks made no headway, with President Donald Trump sharply escalating rhetoric on social media.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly extended his self‑imposed deadlines for bombing Iran’s civilian infrastructure to April 7. In his latest social‑media posts, he has framed these extensions as temporary respites, warning that if Iran does not comply by the new deadline, he will unleash “Power Plant Day and Bridge Day” targeting power plants, bridges, and other critical civil infrastructure.

US markets ended the holiday-shortened week higher, snapping a five-week losing streak amid volatility from US-Iran tensions and oil price surges.

Major indices posted strong weekly gains last week - S&P 500 +3.4%, Dow +3.0%, Nasdaq +4.4%.

The U.S. economy generated 178,000 jobs in March, well above economists’ consensus expectations and rebounding from the previous month’s revised net loss of 133,000 jobs.

Indian equity benchmarks ended the shortened week marginally lower, with the Sensex and Nifty closing around 73320 and 22713, respectively, after a sharp intraday recovery on Thursday.

The week saw heavy volatility, beginning with deep corrections on global geopolitical worries and crude oil spikes, but sentiment improved in the latter sessions, halting a multi‑week losing streak for the indices.

Sectorally, IT stocks outperformed while banking and financials remained under pressure, reflecting selective risk‑on flows and ongoing caution in broader midcap and small‑cap segments.

The RBI's MPC meeting is the key event of the week, as it will be the first since the war.

The U.S. and several Gulf states have publicly pushed for mediation, with Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye positioning themselves as potential intermediaries.

Negotiations are underway for a 45‑day ceasefire, but no concrete breakthrough has emerged.

Donald Trump expressed optimism in a recent social media post that a deal with Iran is imminent, extending the negotiation deadline to Tuesday at 8:00 PM EST (early Wednesday morning Indian time). The development signals a potential de-escalation in tensions. Should a truce materialise, markets — which have seen notable corrections recently — could be poised for a meaningful rebound.

Indian markets are likely to open flat, digesting the latest geopolitical developments.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump vows to hit Iran ‘extremely hard’ within weeks, Crude oil surges 5% on Trump's defiant tone

In his address to the nation, President Trump declared that U.S. military objectives in Iran are “nearing completion” and that the war could wind down in about two to three weeks, assuming continued pressure and ongoing talks

Trump also struck a defiant tone on energy and global markets, insisting the U.S. will not bear the burden of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and arguing that American strength has forced Iran into a weakened position after a month‑long conflict.

Oil prices jumped over 4% after President Trump's prime-time address failed to offer a clear timeline for ending the U.S.-Iran war, with Trump vowing to hit Iran 'extremely hard' over the coming weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, disrupting an estimated 10–15 million barrels per day of supply — the largest oil supply shock in history by volume.

U.S. equities advanced yesterday for a second straight session as diplomatic signals eased tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose roughly 1.2%, and the Dow added 224 points, or 0.48%

Shares of Eli Lilly climbed more than 6% after the FDA cleared a new weight-loss medication with no food or water restrictions. Rival Novo Nordisk edged 0.2% lower following the announcement

Nifty staged a relief rally yesterday, gaining 348 points to close at 22,679 on optimism that the war that has jolted global markets and disrupted energy supplies may be nearing a conclusion.

22,283 will act as a key support, while upside resistance looms at 23,000.

Our markets are poised to open nearly 2% lower on rising fears of intensified military action in the coming weeks.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Geopolitical Risk Takes Centre Stage, RBI Comes to the Rupee Rescue

U.S. equity markets ended last week on a negative note, with the S&P 500 down about 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite slipping about 3.2%, marking the Nasdaq's worst weekly performance since the start of the U.S.–Iran conflict.

The S&P 500 closed at 6,369, suffering its fifth consecutive weekly loss and entering its longest losing streak in nearly four years.

Equity weakness was driven largely by renewed tensions in the Middle East, with Iran‑related headlines and fears of a prolonged conflict weighing heavily on risk appetite.

Rate‑sensitive sectors bore the brunt of the sell‑off. Overall, the week underscored a shift toward risk‑off positioning, with traders repricing the odds of an extended geopolitical standoff and higher-for‑longer rates.

Crude Oil jumped after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi launched missile and drone strikes on Israel over the weekend, widening the Middle East conflict. Brent crude surged, putting it on track for a record monthly gain as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, disrupting an estimated 15–16 million barrels of daily oil flow.

Over the past 48 hours, the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran in the Gulf has intensified, with fresh missile and drone attacks across the region amid stalled diplomacy. Iran has continued to fire missiles and drones at Israeli‑held territory and Gulf‑based US military facilities, while Israel and the US have carried out retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and nuclear‑related sites. The conflict has left the Strait of Hormuz under intermittent Iranian naval pressure, with ripple effects unsettling global energy markets.

US‑backed diplomatic outreach and Gulf‑led shuttle diplomacy have gained modest momentum, but no ceasefire or de‑escalation has been announced yet.

Indian benchmarks extended their decline for the fifth consecutive week, marking one of the most prolonged periods of weakness in recent times. The Indian Rupee hit a fresh record low on Friday, touching the 93.98 level against the US Dollar, further dampening investor confidence.

RBI comes to the Rupee Rescue:

The RBI imposed a uniform $100 million limit on the net open foreign exchange positions of banks, replacing the previous flexible cap of 25% of capital to stifle speculative "long-dollar" bets. Banks have been directed to unwind large currency positions by April 10, a move designed to trigger a temporary surge in dollar supply and provide immediate relief to the Rupee. RBI shifted its strategy from direct market intervention to regulatory tightening to preserve its "war chest."

Indian equity markets face a weak open, with a 1% to 1.5% drop expected amid flaring geopolitical tensions and a spike in crude oil prices. Technically, 23,465 remains a key resistance level, with 22,471 as the nearest support.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump announces 10-Day Pause on Strikes, A Reprieve for Oil and Markets

President Trump announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6 and offering markets near-term relief — though substantial uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz closure persists.

Brent crude and WTI each fell nearly 1% in early trading, a brief respite following the prior session's 5% surge driven by supply disruption fears.

The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 25% of global oil and LNG transits — has pushed Brent futures up approximately 40% and WTI up over 30% since hostilities began on February 28.

US equity markets deteriorated sharply on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% — its steepest single-session decline since the conflict's onset — while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.4%, slipping into correction territory. Losses deepened as investors grew increasingly concerned about the conflict's implications for inflation and growth.

The 10-year US yield climbed to 4.41% — its highest closing level since July 2024 — while the 2-year yield reached its highest point since June 2025, as traders reassessed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay rate cuts.

Despite the equity rebound, the Indian rupee remains under pressure, hovering near record lows of approximately ₹94.1 against the dollar. The currency's weakness reflects sustained foreign institutional outflows, which totalled nearly $11 billion in March alone — underscoring persistent macroeconomic anxiety even as near-term energy price fears have partially abated.

Indian equity markets reopen today, March 27, following the Ram Navami holiday. Heading into the break, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 posted gains exceeding 1.6%, buoyed by broad-based buying and stabilising global cues — though persistent geopolitical tensions are likely to keep sentiment in check.

The recent pullback has nudged the Nifty back above its 10-day SMA (23,240) — its first close above that level since the drawdown sparked by the West Asia conflict. Key support has shifted higher to 23060, with resistance clustered in the 23378–23618 zone.

Indian markets are poised to open around 0.5% lower on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Celebrate Trump's Peace Overtures

U.S. stock indexes posted their best single-day performance since early February, after a five-day pause in planned military strikes against Iranian infrastructure. The Dow gained over 630 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.15%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.38%.

Iranian state media, however, denied that any direct negotiations had taken place.

Oil markets reversed, a relief that lifted airline and cruise line stocks, which had been under pressure from soaring fuel costs.

Asia-Pacific markets rallied sharply on Tuesday. South Korea's Kospi surged 3.5%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced 2.2%, aided by data showing headline inflation fell to 1.3% in February — its lowest reading since March 2022 — giving the Bank of Japan room to hold off on rate hikes.

The diplomatic shift pulled capital out of safe-haven assets. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.34%, and gold briefly dropped toward $4,100 an ounce before stabilising near $4400 as investors rotated back into equities.

Indian equity markets suffered a significant crash yesterday as geopolitical friction between the U.S. and Iran intensified. The Sensex plunged over 1,800 points, while the Nifty dropped approximately 2.6% to settle near the 22512 level, driven by widespread risk aversion across nearly all sectors.

The Indian rupee fell to a record low of 93.94 against the U.S. dollar. This depreciation is largely attributed to escalating import energy costs for India and sustained capital outflows from foreign portfolio investors who have withdrawn over ₹1 trillion so far this year.

Fitch Ratings has increased India's economic growth projection for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to 7.5%, citing robust domestic demand and infrastructure investment.

Despite the previous session's heavy losses, early indicators suggest a positive opening for Indian markets. The GIFT Nifty is indicating a 1.5% higher opening, reflecting a potential recovery following reports of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Equity markets have corrected roughly 15% from their recent highs, driven by geopolitical uncertainties. While there are early signs of a potential truce, the outcome of these peace talks cannot be predicted with certainty. If one waits for a complete cessation of hostilities before acting, current price levels may no longer be available. It is therefore prudent to begin deploying capital into markets where stocks have corrected sufficiently, and valuations offer an adequate margin of safety. A reasonable strategy would be to deploy at least 25% of the capital you have been holding in reserve for the right opportunity. That opportunity is now — the time has come to begin taking measured risks.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Beginning of the End of War?

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel is supporting U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait, would not strike Iranian oil and gas targets again, and that the war could end sooner than expected.

His "verge of victory" remarks lifted risk assets as markets priced in a shorter conflict — though volatility persisted, with reports of renewed Iranian missile launches emerging even as he spoke.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, but recovered sharply from session lows following Israel's pledge to halt strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and President Trump's confirmation that there would be no ground troop deployments. Equity futures edged higher Thursday night on the back of Netanyahu's remarks.

U.S. oil prices extended their decline after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled that Washington may soon lift sanctions on Iranian crude held aboard tankers, aiming to relieve price pressures following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In a joint statement, the U.S., Britain, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan affirmed their readiness to help ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets remained under pressure as investors weighed a hawkish Federal Reserve against ongoing tensions in the Gulf region. Assets sold off broadly — bonds, equities, and metals — as tit-for-tat strikes on regional energy infrastructure drove prices sharply higher.

After three sessions of pullback, the Nifty resumed its downtrend, plunging 775 points (3.26%) to close at 23002 yesterday — its steepest single-session drop in percentage terms since April 7, 2025.

As anticipated in yesterday's commentary, the Nifty found support at the lower end of the 22,923–23,207 band — and is now poised to rebound toward the upper end today.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Stocks surge on crude oil pullback

Stocks rebounded sharply on Monday after several consecutive sessions of notable losses, with all major averages closing higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the advance.

The indexes finished off their intraday highs but remained strongly positive. The Nasdaq surged 268 points, or 1.2%, to 22,374; the S&P 500 jumped 67 points, or 1%, to 6,699; and the Dow advanced 387 points, or 0.8%, to 46946.

It was the market's strongest session since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran. Easing oil prices reduced immediate concerns over energy-driven inflation and its drag on economic growth.

The technology and travel sectors led broad gains. Norwegian Cruise Line rose 5%, and United Airlines climbed 4%, both benefiting from lower fuel costs.

Semiconductor stocks were among the session's standout performers in the technology sector. NVIDIA and Micron posted notable gains as investors reassessed geopolitical risks to global supply chains and demand for digital infrastructure.

The surge in crude prices this month is likely to shift the inflation outlook and lead most central banks to hold rates steady at their policy meetings this ​week.

The Federal Reserve opened its March 17–18 policy meeting today, with markets broadly expecting rates to hold at 3.50–3.75%. Investor focus is on the updated dot plot, as energy-driven inflation has reduced 2026 rate-cut expectations from three to one.

Nifty snapped a three-day losing streak in a session defined by extreme volatility.

Having corrected nearly 13% from its all-time high, Nifty found support in the gap band of 22,923–23,207, setting the stage for a potential pullback rally.

This rebound was driven by bargain hunting in heavyweights across the banking, auto, and FMCG sectors, despite ongoing volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

On the upside, 23,700 emerges as a key resistance to monitor. A decisive break below 22,923 would signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Indian equity markets are set to open on a firm note, supported by favourable global cues.

Foreign investors are sitting on sizable short positions, and any unwinding of those bets could trigger a short-term rally.