Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

S&P & Dow Hit New Records, US Trade Deal Hope Sparks 300-Point Nifty Rally

The S&P 500 and Dow registered record closing highs on Monday as technology stocks and Walmart gained, with investors largely dismissing concerns about the Justice Department's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Stocks opened lower on the Powell news. The Justice Department's threat of indictment, ostensibly focused on Powell's congressional testimony regarding a building renovation project, heightened concerns about the Fed's independence.

Powell called the move a "pretext" to gain influence over interest rates that President Donald Trump has pressed to cut sharply since taking office in January 2025.

Credit card company stocks fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump proposed capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year. Capital One Financial fell 8%, while Citigroup and American Express dropped 4%. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo each declined approximately 2%.

The dollar held its losses on Tuesday after the Trump administration opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, threatening the central bank's independence and confidence in U.S. assets.

Japan's Nikkei average surged to a record high on Tuesday as markets caught up with Wall Street's recent two-day rally following a public holiday in Japan earlier this week.

Investors also bought Japanese equities on expectations of increased fiscal spending amid speculation that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early election to bolster her coalition government's parliamentary majority.

Gold jumped 2.5% to an all-time high on Monday, while silver futures climbed 7.3% to a record level. The moves followed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's disclosure that he received Justice Department subpoenas regarding testimony on headquarters renovations, raising concerns about central bank independence.

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as heightened concerns about Iran and potential supply disruptions outweighed prospects of increased crude supply from Venezuela.

TCS and HCL Tech reported mixed quarterly results yesterday, with TCS keeping revenue and margin gains on a steady path while HCL Tech faced profitability pressures despite stronger topline growth.

The Nifty 50 broke its five-day losing streak, climbing 106 points to close at 25,790. The reversal came swiftly after 12:00 PM, when optimistic remarks from U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gor sparked a dramatic rally. His confirmation that India and the USA are actively finalising a trade deal triggered a sharp recovery of more than 300 points from the day's lows.

A sustained move above 25,800 could extend the rally toward the next resistance levels at the 50-day and 20-day DEMAs, positioned near 25,900 and 26,000, respectively. On the downside, the recent low of 25,473 may provide short-term support.

Indian markets are positioned to open modestly higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street Hits All-Time Highs as Weak Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Optimism, Indian Markets Tumble on Trump Tariff Threat.

US stocks advanced in the first full trading week of 2026, with investors largely ignoring geopolitical tensions and pushing major indexes to all-time highs.

Rotation from mega-caps to cyclicals broadened market participation, while focus on President Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's rate path supported industrials and small caps.

The S&P 500 rose 1.6% last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.9%.

The weaker-than-expected jobs report fuelled optimism about potential rate cuts, lifting Wall Street broadly.

December nonfarm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, below the expected 60,000-70,000 and down from November's revised 56,000.

Unemployment fell to 4.4% from 4.5%, signalling a low-hiring, low-firing environment.

Housing stocks surged after President Trump announced $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases to lower rates.

Indian stock markets suffered their worst weekly loss in over three months, driven by profit-booking and global tariff concerns.

President Trump's threat of 500% tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil rattled emerging markets, triggering risk-off sentiment and a rotation out of cyclicals.

With no domestic catalysts, investors booked profits after recent highs.

The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 2.55%, and the Nifty 50 fell 2.45% to 25,683, while the Sensex shed over 2,100 points.

A decisive break below the 100-day EMA at 25,619 could accelerate selling toward the next major support at 25,318 (November 2025 swing low).

Any recovery attempts will likely face stiff resistance in the 25,950- 26,000 zone.

Investors now await upcoming IT sector earnings and US inflation data for the next directional triggers.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Dow, S&P 500 Give Back Ground, But Nasdaq Moves Modestly Higher

US Markets remain cautiously positioned amid geopolitical developments, upcoming Supreme Court tariff decisions, and the early stages of Q4 earnings season.

American stocks fluctuated throughout the trading day on Wednesday before ending the relatively lacklustre session mixed.

Energy stocks declined sharply, with Exxon Mobil falling 3% and Chevron dropping 4%, after oil prices retreated following Trump's announcement that Venezuela would provide up to 50 million barrels to the US at market prices.

Housing stocks moved sharply lower over the course of the session, dragging the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index down by 2.6 per cent.

Semiconductor stocks steadied after explosive gains yesterday, with SanDisk surging nearly 28% after AI-optimised storage breakthroughs.

Precious metals faced profit-taking ahead of commodity index rebalancing.

ADP's December employment data showed 41,000 jobs added, slightly missing expectations. Economists had expected private-sector employment to increase by 47,000 jobs, compared with the 32,000 job loss originally reported for the previous month.

Asian equity markets showed mixed performance, with moderate declines in major indices amid cautious sentiment. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1%.

Nifty extended its losing streak to a third straight session yesterday, slipping 37 points to settle at 26,140, but managing to close off the day’s low.

Despite the short-term softness, the broader positional trend remains bullish, supported by a pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms on the daily charts.

On the upside, the recent swing high at 26,373 is likely to act as an immediate resistance level, while 26,000 is expected to provide strong near-term support.

Indian markets are poised to open modestly lower on the back of weak Asian cues.