The big things you need to know:

• First, the tactical indicators we’ve been tracking to gauge when equity investors’ fears may have gone too far continue to show signs of significant deterioration but are not yet pointing to extreme fear suggesting more downside in stocks remains possible in the near term.
• Second, other things that jump out include new stress tests on our valuation/EPS model, the latest C-suite tone, the signals from our US GDP model for the S&P 500 if consensus forecasts start to erode, and evidence of derisking in equities in the latest funds flows data.

The big things you need to know:

1. First, we review our key takeaways from our review of March company commentary on the Middle East conflict on EPS calls and in conference presentations. What we read adds to our understanding of why the US equity market has been fairly resilient since the Iran strikes, and also leads us to believe that it may simply take more time for the equity community to fully understand the impacts from an extended conflict.
2. Second, other things that jump out this week include much better EPS estimate revisions trends in the top-10 market cap names in the S&P 500 than the rest of the index (a point in favor of mega cap Growth stocks continuing to outperform), the sharp drop in investor sentiment on our AAII model (a bullish data point for the broader market) and the return of the Russell 2000 FY2 P/E to its long-term average (important progress but not a return to “hold your nose and buy” territory).

The big things you need to know:

1. First, in tandem with the 5% decline in the S&P 500, investor and consumer sentiment have slipped in recent updates as investors have digested the possibility of a longer conflict in Iran and consumers have started to notice higher gas prices.
2. Second, we review our macro takeaways from RBC’s Financial Institutions conference, where we detected echoes of the lingering confidence and emerging concerns that are seen in the surveys we discuss.