Thinking Through Tier 2

The big things you need to know:

• First, the tactical indicators we’ve been tracking to gauge when equity investors’ fears may have gone too far continue to show signs of significant deterioration but are not yet pointing to extreme fear suggesting more downside in stocks remains possible in the near term.
• Second, other things that jump out include new stress tests on our valuation/EPS model, the latest C-suite tone, the signals from our US GDP model for the S&P 500 if consensus forecasts start to erode, and evidence of derisking in equities in the latest funds flows data.