Geopolitical Cousins Podcast Por Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic arte de portada

Geopolitical Cousins

Geopolitical Cousins

De: Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic
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Geopolitical Cousins throws together analysts Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic for some of the most in-depth, off-the-wall geopolitical analysis in the world.Copyright 2026 Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic Ciencias Sociales Economía Filosofía Finanzas Personales
Episodios
  • The Spice Must Flow!

    The Spice Must Flow!
    Apr 2 2026

    We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catastrophe. There might be a "third, secret door" - but you'll have to tune in to learn more :)

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    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Open

    (00:53) - Pregame Iran Updates

    (01:56) - Trump Speech Predictions

    (02:56) - NATO Exit Distraction

    (08:19) - Two Doors A Or B

    (11:43) - Door C War But Oil

    (16:09) - Escalation Odds And Markets

    (20:51) - Tolling Debate Predictability

    (24:39) - Israel Spoiler Scenarios

    (35:48) - Gulf States And China Leverage

    (37:46) - Spice Leverage Limits

    (38:37) - Iran Hormuz Toll Scenario

    (39:54) - Maritime Chokepoints Debate

    (41:09) - Trump and Sea Power Shift

    (43:40) - US Exit and Regional Equilibrium

    (46:12) - Industrial Policy Reality Check

    (49:25) - Russia Ukraine Energy Spillover

    (50:46) - Power Is Fungible Argument

    (54:30) - Who Guards Gulf After US

    (59:41) - Multipolar Stability Case

    (1:05:28) - Ukraine as Garrison State

    (01:09:30) - Doom Gloom Endgame Risks

    (01:17:23) - Wrap Up and Lakers

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    Referenced in the Show:

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    Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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    Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

    Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

    Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

    Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

    Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 h y 18 m
  • Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior

    Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior
    Mar 27 2026
    The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption. His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.--Timestamps:00:00 Welcome01:32 Beer And Banter05:05 Trump Pause And Troops06:43 Oil Shock Timeline08:41 Houthis And Red Sea11:31 Shortages Beyond Oil13:43 Troop Math Reality18:06 War Outlook Shifts24:38 Island Invasion Scenarios28:50 Iran Constraints Debate32:20 Market Mispricing Pain34:12 China And Allies Fallout35:09 China Leverage on Iran36:55 Low Conviction Warnings37:53 Middle East War Normalized40:00 Tacit Rules of Engagement42:19 Pushback and Pain Threshold48:36 Markets Start to Crack53:24 Munitions and Time Limits54:55 Europe Energy Exposure56:52 Europe Must Get Real59:51 Germany Nuclear Wake Up01:07:05 Multipolar Pragmatism01:09:56 Europe Virtue Signaling01:12:37 Summing Up the Fog01:14:19 Two Week Ticking Clock01:16:11 Constraint Framework Equilibrium01:17:32 Israel Leverage And Lebanon01:20:19 Age Of Revisionism01:24:46 Realism And The 19th Century01:27:55 Inequality And Soft Power01:29:39 NBA Talk Starts Here01:30:10 Relegation And 30 Teams01:34:13 Baseball Overtakes Basketball01:43:01 Wrap Up Mad Max Title--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 h y 46 m
  • Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation

    Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation
    Mar 13 2026
    Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts: (Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup(00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter(01:44) - Friday Updates and Personal Chaos(04:49) - Cuba Iran and US Moves Roundup(06:20) - How Long Will This War Last(07:29) - Marko's Pain Airpower Global Response Equation(11:56) - History Lessons and Iran Deterrence(13:16) - Where Are the Houthis(15:53) - US Firepower and Proxy Calculus(19:09) - Devils Advocate Iranian Endurance(23:53) - Next Week Risks Houthis vs Iraq(28:34) - Nightmare Scenario Land War(31:50) - Should US Seize Kharg Island(35:26) - Boots on Ground Politics and Mission Creep(38:17) - Threaten Terminals and Seize Tankers(42:05) - Straits Threats Dismissed(43:02) - Israel Interests Explained(45:15) - Iran Pain Tolerance Debate(47:17) - Missile Capacity Counterpoint(48:46) - Risk Desensitization Rant(54:00) - Pandemic Policy Lessons(01:02:19) - US Prep Failures Critique(01:08:37) - China And Iran Support(01:13:24) - Why Straits Matter Globally(01:17:22) - Food And Fertilizer Fallout(01:18:45) - Weekend Wrap And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:Heggseth Clip - https://x.com/i/status/2032458784199655784--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 h y 22 m
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