Episodios

  • Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior

    Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior
    Mar 27 2026
    The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption. His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.--Timestamps:00:00 Welcome01:32 Beer And Banter05:05 Trump Pause And Troops06:43 Oil Shock Timeline08:41 Houthis And Red Sea11:31 Shortages Beyond Oil13:43 Troop Math Reality18:06 War Outlook Shifts24:38 Island Invasion Scenarios28:50 Iran Constraints Debate32:20 Market Mispricing Pain34:12 China And Allies Fallout35:09 China Leverage on Iran36:55 Low Conviction Warnings37:53 Middle East War Normalized40:00 Tacit Rules of Engagement42:19 Pushback and Pain Threshold48:36 Markets Start to Crack53:24 Munitions and Time Limits54:55 Europe Energy Exposure56:52 Europe Must Get Real59:51 Germany Nuclear Wake Up01:07:05 Multipolar Pragmatism01:09:56 Europe Virtue Signaling01:12:37 Summing Up the Fog01:14:19 Two Week Ticking Clock01:16:11 Constraint Framework Equilibrium01:17:32 Israel Leverage And Lebanon01:20:19 Age Of Revisionism01:24:46 Realism And The 19th Century01:27:55 Inequality And Soft Power01:29:39 NBA Talk Starts Here01:30:10 Relegation And 30 Teams01:34:13 Baseball Overtakes Basketball01:43:01 Wrap Up Mad Max Title--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 h y 46 m
  • Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation

    Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation
    Mar 13 2026
    Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts: (Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup(00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter(01:44) - Friday Updates and Personal Chaos(04:49) - Cuba Iran and US Moves Roundup(06:20) - How Long Will This War Last(07:29) - Marko's Pain Airpower Global Response Equation(11:56) - History Lessons and Iran Deterrence(13:16) - Where Are the Houthis(15:53) - US Firepower and Proxy Calculus(19:09) - Devils Advocate Iranian Endurance(23:53) - Next Week Risks Houthis vs Iraq(28:34) - Nightmare Scenario Land War(31:50) - Should US Seize Kharg Island(35:26) - Boots on Ground Politics and Mission Creep(38:17) - Threaten Terminals and Seize Tankers(42:05) - Straits Threats Dismissed(43:02) - Israel Interests Explained(45:15) - Iran Pain Tolerance Debate(47:17) - Missile Capacity Counterpoint(48:46) - Risk Desensitization Rant(54:00) - Pandemic Policy Lessons(01:02:19) - US Prep Failures Critique(01:08:37) - China And Iran Support(01:13:24) - Why Straits Matter Globally(01:17:22) - Food And Fertilizer Fallout(01:18:45) - Weekend Wrap And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:Heggseth Clip - https://x.com/i/status/2032458784199655784--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 h y 22 m
  • They Don't Want the Smoke

    They Don't Want the Smoke
    Mar 10 2026

    Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello!

    (01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap

    (02:15) - Trump War Quotes

    (02:54) - Menu Metaphor

    (04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity

    (07:20) - Fire and Fury Tweet

    (09:50) - Punitive Campaign Logic

    (12:35) - Iran Succession Shock

    (14:43) - Attack Data and B52s

    (16:44) - Red Sea vs Hormuz

    (20:17) - Why Hormuz Matters

    (24:25) - Vietnam and Tanker Risk

    (27:06) - Regime Instability Scenario

    (30:37) - Trump and Market Downside

    (32:50) - Basketball Geopolitics Analogy

    (36:56) - Shaq Strategy Not Nation Building

    (38:09) - Ditching the Hormuz Dependency

    (40:31) - China Taiwan and Energy Timelines

    (41:24) - Why Oil Is Hard to Replace

    (43:42) - Dune Metaphor Breaks Down

    (45:13) - Middle East Oil Still Matters

    (47:09) - India China Pressure on Iran

    (51:46) - Stock Versus Flow Reality Check

    (53:58) - Global Naval Coalition Scenario

    (59:21) - Is Iran Backing Down

    (01:05:41) - Iraq Militias and Iran Isolation

    (01:08:54) - Final Thoughts Taco Skit

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

    --

    Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

    Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

    Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

    Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

    Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 h y 12 m
  • Epic Heat Check

    Epic Heat Check
    Mar 6 2026

    Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces a global recession.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Welcome

    (00:47) - Oval Office Firings

    (01:29) - Is This Becoming Regional War

    (05:04) - Closing Hormuz Drones Threat

    (08:57) - Iran Pain Threshold And Escalation

    (12:37) - Azerbaijan Kurds Regime Change Signals

    (13:44) - Why Iran Hits Everyone

    (19:53) - Why Trump Shifted On Iran

    (23:38) - Israel Influence Conspiracy Talk

    (27:07) - America Heat Check And Oil Shock

    (34:37) - Sparta Versus Athens Worldview

    (38:07) - Deep State Distraction Theory

    (39:36) - Strait of Hormuz Pain Threshold

    (41:43) - Red Lines for Escalation

    (44:39) - Iraq and Hezbollah Wildcards

    (46:25) - Why America Reveres the Military

    (51:54) - Let Them Drink Bleach Scenario

    (56:47) - April 5 Base Case Forecasts

    (01:03:50) - Polling and Midterm Pressure

    (01:08:52) - Eurotrip Meme Detour

    (01:11:14) - Oil Food Prices Final Warning

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

    --

    Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

    Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

    Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

    Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

    Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 h y 13 m
  • Why Hormuz Matters

    Why Hormuz Matters
    Mar 5 2026

    We brought in Ed Richardson - tanker maven, shipping expert, and one of the sharpest minds on how the world actually moves its oil. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, we break down why insurance isn't really the problem, what Red Sea Part Two looks like, why India might be the most exposed economy on the planet, and whether this is finally the moment the world starts building around the Middle East rather than through it.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (01:02) - Meet Ed Richardson

    (01:26) - Why Hormuz Matters

    (02:47) - Shipping Crisis Era

    (06:36) - Asia Demand Explained

    (08:18) - Flows Stop Prices Spike

    (11:24) - Insurance Myth GPS Spoofing

    (16:11) - Risk Premium Tanker Boom

    (21:21) - Can US Build Tankers

    (23:16) - How To Reopen Confidence

    (27:08) - Red Sea Part Two

    (30:48) - Rethinking Energy Routes

    (35:11) - Oil Types, Geology Limits

    (37:27) - Where To Follow Ed

    (38:41) - Closing Thanks

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Ed's Substack: https://edfin.substack.com/

    --

    Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

    --

    Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

    Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

    Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

    Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

    Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    39 m
  • Thin Ice

    Thin Ice
    Mar 4 2026
    Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue. They dive into Trump's escort policy, the rules-based order debate, Ukraine hitting Russian oil infrastructure, and whether any of this even qualifies as a war. There's also some serious time spent debating Dubai - who it actually serves, whether its neutrality holds, and who could rival it as the next real safe haven. Throw in AI wargames going nuclear, Taiwan logic, brain drain, Venezuela as a leverage play, and a World War Z detour, and that's your episode :)--Timestamps:(01:23) - Wisconsin field research(02:22) - Thin ice markets framing(04:38) - Yom Kippur energy shock(07:51) - Regime collapse scenario(12:00) - Iran capabilities and drones(15:46) - Trump shipping insurance rant(26:08) - Allies reactions and Europe(30:05) - Spain politics and energy(31:48) - Combat Operation Wordplay(34:50) - Ukraine Hits Russian Oil(37:11) - Rules Based Order Myth(39:31) - Why No World War(42:00) - Nukes Change Everything(46:51) - How Many Countries Bombed(50:10) - World War Incentives(51:16 AI War Games Go Nuclear(53:19) - Dubai Safe Haven Debate(01:01:57) - UAE Risks And Rivals(01:03:42) - Picking New Safe Havens(01:05:14) - What Makes UAE Hard to Copy(01:08:35) - Neutrality and No Opinions(01:10:50) - Rubio Quote and Exit Ramps(01:13:26) - Israel Tech Debate and Stats(01:18:56) - Regional Hegemon and PR Problem(01:25:05) - Gulf States Need Israel Intel(01:35:26) - World War Z Detour(01:37:05) - Venezuela Leverage and Wrap Up--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 h y 41 m
  • The Iranian Leviathan Loses Its Head

    The Iranian Leviathan Loses Its Head
    Mar 1 2026

    The US and Israel struck Iran. Khamenei is dead. Marco got the biggest break of his career. And yet... the Islamic Republic lives on. The lads spend this episode digging into why this operation is less transformative than Twitter would have you believe.

    History is clear: America doesn't have a great track record of turning regime change into geopolitical wins - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... Iran will get a new Supreme Leader, probably a so-called "pragmatist" who was sanctioning protesters six weeks ago, but the operation won't end when Trump decides that it ends. So temper the triumphalism and strap in for another fun episode of "America Intervenes Without Doing the Math Beforehand."

    --

    Timestamps:

    (01:01) - The Most Important Geopolitical Development This Week

    (02:51) - Seguing Into Iran War

    (04:48) - Regime Change Reality Check

    (10:56) - Decapitation Strike Fallout

    (12:20) - Saudi Angle And Gulf Targets

    (13:50) - Hormuz And Market Shock

    (19:26) - Drone War Asymmetry Risk

    (22:46) - Trump Regime Calibration

    (25:41) - Why Trump Could Do It

    (33:02) - Is Iran A US Threat

    (35:01) - Multipolar Message To World

    (38:58) - Unipolar Limits

    (40:24) - Deterrence Arms Race

    (41:49) - Multipolar 19th Century

    (44:24) - Is It About China

    (47:46) - Strait of Hormuz Signal

    (49:33) - Russia Oil Windfall

    (51:31) - Missiles and Deal Logic

    (53:58) - Eurasian Conflict Crescent

    (55:53) - Iran Civil War Risk

    (01:00:22) - Revolution Timing Debate

    (01:05:17) - Israel Factor in Uprisings

    (01:10:24) - Purim and Perceptions

    (01:12:16) - Ahmadinejad Legacy

    (01:15:44) - Wrap Up and Sign Off

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

    --

    Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

    Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

    Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

    Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

    Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 h y 16 m
  • The Board of Peace (And Other Jokes)

    The Board of Peace (And Other Jokes)
    Feb 20 2026

    No notes, just two geopolitical degenerates (Jacob and Marko) running a full-court press on the week’s chaos. The lads spar over Trump’s “Board of Peace,” ask whether a U.S. strike on Iran is strategy or pure domestic theater, and map out what escalation could really look like - from drones in the Strait of Hormuz to oil shocks and asymmetric retaliation.

    Then... they zoom out: nuclear proliferation in a multipolar world, Europe’s slow strategic awakening in Munich, and whether America’s foreign policy is performance art or hard power. It’s unscripted, blunt, and - annoyingly - extremely serious.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Beginning

    (02:29) - Who Showed Up to the Beijing Parade & “Board of Peace”?

    (04:24) - What Even Is the “Board of Peace”?

    (07:32) - Iran Time!

    (11:14) - Iran Capabilities & Asymmetry

    (14:54) - Worst-Case Escalation

    (25:36) - Trump’s “Punch-Then-Deal” Strategy

    (33:06) - Did the US Miss the Protest Window?

    (36:27) - So What Happens Next?

    (39:26) - Why Airstrikes Became America’s Default

    (40:45) - Geopolitics vs. US Domestic Politics

    (42:35) - Nuclear Proliferation Returns

    (48:18) - The Real Proliferation Risks

    (54:20) - Clean Energy, Cartels, and Why States Control Nukes

    (58:18) - Munich Security Conference Check-In

    (01:06:20) - Europe’s Next Security Umbrella

    (01:11:48) - Europe’s Demographics & Integration Debate

    (01:15:57) - The Multi‑Ethnic Europe That Might Return

    --

    Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

    --

    Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

    Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

    Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

    Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

    Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 h y 18 m