This morning, I'm going to pretty much let Toss Grumley do the opener for me.
Who's Toss Grumley? Well, Toss is a New Zealand business advisor and investor. The Post has run an editorial he wrote, bemoaning the Christmas shutdown. In it he said New Zealand's Christmas break has started to become way too extreme, and it's impacting our productivity on an individual business level and at the level of the economy.
The summer break, he says, seems to be extending, leaving less room for leave later in the year. But the most concerning part is the circle back mid-February mentality, which means that while many are at work, they aren't doing much productive work. And the mentality of circle back Feb seems to start late November or early December.
He says having 10 weeks of no productive conversation simply isn't good for business. He points out our productivity has grown at around 1.2% per year since 1996, while Australia's has grown at around 1.8%, and we're getting left behind. We need to work longer as we're producing less. We are 30 to 40% below top performers like the US, Norway, and Ireland. He also points out that March and April are the peak months for business arrears. This, he says, is not by chance, it's driven by business habits over December and January. Additionally, our GDP quarterly volatility is in the top third of the OECD.
Again, he says, this is the Christmas season. For retail, we have a huge October to December quarter, then everyone stops spending all of January, creating cash flow problems for our businesses. He says while we all need to recuperate at times, in a country where our recovery is so fragile, we need to work hard up to the break, take some well-deserved time off, then get back into it and get our lives and businesses moving again swiftly.
Thank you very much Toss and The Post for doing the heavy lifting on the editorial for me this morning.
He does have a point though, doesn't he? Because we have our very own Mike Hosking who's, even as I speak, roaring down the motorway in his fine European vehicle, heading off on his hols before December's been here for a week. The Chrissy decks have barely been put up around the office, and he's gone. And it's unsettling for people when the routine is disrupted.
I myself will be heading off – I don't go until the 19th, but I won't be back for a while. Most of January I'll be gone. It's a long time. They're the sort of holidays I could only dream of when I was a junior woodchuck reporter. Penny and Robert, our favourite coffee shop downstairs, they're paying rent on their space. They don't stop paying rent over Christmas and New Year, so they'll be back. Heaven knows who'll be around to buy the coffees and the excellent muffins that Helen barely ever touches because our people are clearing off apart from a skeleton staff. The council offices over the road will be deserted too, I imagine, apart from the skeleton staff.
I'd be really interested to hear from you as to what you want. If you are one of the many, many small business owners, small to medium business owners, do you work like a navy right up until Christmas Eve, and then think, thank heavens, put the closed sign up on the shop and head off for three weeks, four weeks, and think, no, I'm not doing anything over January. I'm done. Do you wish that you could take two weeks off, recover, and then come back and everybody else came back too and business as usual, like Toss is saying.
He got a fair bit of flak for this when he posted this initially on LinkedIn. People were really grumpy, saying he begrudged people holidays. And he doesn't. He says he just wishes they were spaced out throughout the year, rather than having the great Christmas shutdown.
Do people order their bathroom or kitchen renos in December and January, or do you wait until February? Is it a case of, oh well, might as well take the time off because my supplier's taken the time off and customers aren't responding to calls, and then it becomes a domino effect. One topples and the next thing, you know, we all fall over and lie in the sand with a cool drink by our side, thinking, well, circle back February.
How many weeks for you is optimum for a holiday? How many would you like other people to take? When it comes to the schools and the teachers, when it comes to radio stations and the hosts, when it comes to businesses, when it comes to suppliers. Is it six weeks, four weeks, three weeks? What to you would be the optimum?
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Dec 12 20253 mins