In this high-stakes update, Nicholas Frappell examines the "U-turn" in the gold market following a period of extreme volatility. After gold hit a significant low of US$4,100 on March 23rd, it staged a US$300 rally, creating a powerful "Hammer" candlestick that has redefined the short-term technical floor.

The discussion focuses heavily on the fragile two-week ceasefire in the Gulf and its immediate impact on the energy-gold nexus.

Key Discussion Points

• The Hammer Reversal: Analysing the March 23rd price action where gold recovered from US$4,100 to close at US$4,407, providing a definitive technical signal.
• The Ceasefire Catalyst: How the cessation of hostilities led to a US$15/bbl drop in Dated Brent and a US$90 surge in gold over the week.
• Asymmetric Shocks: Why the US Dollar outperformed Eurozone and Asian currencies during the Hormuz blockade due to America's status as a net petroleum exporter.
• The Fragile Peace: Differing interpretations of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, specifically regarding the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Economic Scars: Why the shocks to refinery runs in Singapore and Southeast Asia are already "baked into the cake," regardless of the ceasefire’s duration.

Timestamps

• (00:00) – Introduction: Recording on 10 April 2026.
• 00:44) – Technical U-Turn: The US$4,100 low and the "Hammer" candle.
• (02:15) – Currency Dynamics: The dollar as a safe haven and the balance of trade shock.
• (04:25) – The Ceasefire Stress Test: US, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz negotiations.
• (06:06) – Rate Expectations: Why Fed pricing remains largely unchanged despite the conflict.
• (07:32) – Positioning Update: Steady managed money longs and global ETF holdings (98.55m oz).
• (08:21) – Price Targets: Short-term upside to US$4,830; medium-term resistance at US$5,075.
• (11:25) – Global Investors Summit: Nick previews his upcoming trip to Hong Kong.

Current Trend: Gold remains technically bearish in the daily timeframe despite the rally; a close above US$5,100 is required to challenge the Daily Ichimoku Cloud top.

Resistance Levels: US$4,935 (Cloud Base) and US$5,075 (Cloud Top).

Support Levels: US$4,100 (Hammer Low) and US$4,450 (Short-term downside target).

More Resources

• Technical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional analysis at abcrefinery.com/podcast.
• Follow Shae Russell: @shaearussell
• Follow Nick Frappell: @nick_frappell

In this mid-March edition of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Nicholas Frappell distills the escalating US-Iran conflict. This discussion moves beyond the initial market shock to explore why gold is currently behaving more like a risk asset than a safe haven.

Nick provides a high-level tactical analysis of the Middle Eastern theatre, from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the potential for American "boots on the ground" at Kharg Island. The episode breaks down the energy supply shock—impacting everything from global chip production to fertilizer supplies—and why the markets may be dangerously "fading" these geopolitical risks.

Technical analysts will also find deep value in Nick’s breakdown of gold’s breach of the Daily Ichimoku Cloud and a Point & Figure target for Brent Crude that suggests the energy crisis is far from over.

📆 Recorded on Thursday 19th March 2026, this episode explores:

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction: Precious metals prices as of 19 March 2026.
• (01:09) – Geopolitical Realities: Analysing the widening downstream impacts of the Iran conflict.
• (03:22) – The Safe Haven Paradox: Why the US dollar is winning while gold retreats.
• (05:53) – Energy Mitigants: Pipelines, emergency reserves, and the "Tank Top" countdown.
• (08:00) – Military Dimensions: The USS Tripoli and the risk of American boots on Iranian soil.
• (09:32) – Positioning: Managed Money’s surprising caution in the face of high volatility.
• (10:46) – Brent Oil Forecasts: Technical targets as the energy shock intensifies.
• (11:51) – Technical Analysis: Gold’s first breach of the Daily Ichimoku Cloud since mid-2025.
• (14:40) – The End of the Carry Trade? Second-order effects of yen weakness and energy imports.
• (16:24) – Key Takeaways: Headline risk, the Macbeth quote, and the legacy of war.

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

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In this special location episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets from ABC Refinery, records on the final day of the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle. Following his keynote address, Nick unpacks the "uncertainty bingo card," explaining why traditional indicators like gold and the US dollar are defying historical correlations.

This episode dives deep into the technical and macroeconomic cross-currents defining 2026, including the shift from "de-dollarisation" to "de-fiatisation", the unprecedented retail silver frenzy in China, and why Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Fed might actually mean more expensive money. Nick also provides exclusive technical updates using Ichimoku Cloud analysis and provides the probabilities for gold and silver’s next major moves.

📆 Recorded on Thursday 19th February 2026 at the RIU Explorers conference, this episode explores:

• Market dynamics, price targets, and the role of managed money in these movements

• The implications of Fed policy and inflation on precious metals.

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction: From the floor of the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle.

• (01:17) – The Uncertainty Proxy: Why measles outbreaks and the Fed narrative track with gold.

• (03:00) – The Warsh Factor: Quantitative tightening and the "belly of the curve."

• (05:51) – Breaking Correlations: Analysing gold’s rally alongside high real rates and a strong dollar.

• (08:16) – De-fiatisation vs. De-dollarisation: Why China is still accumulating greenbacks.

• (12:38) – Silver’s Forgotten Story: Comex inventory shifts and Chinese retail premiums.

• (16:55) – Managed Money Data: Identifying "Fast Money" trends in gold and silver.

• (21:17) – Technical Analysis: Ichimoku Cloud support levels and Point & Figure upside targets.

• (24:00) – Option Market Probabilities: Is a $140 silver price actually on the cards?

• (28:09) – The "Big Macro" Indicator: Monitoring the US Net International Investment Position.

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell