The Hammer & The Ceasefire: Gold’s Resilience Amidst Gulf Volatility

In this high-stakes update, Nicholas Frappell examines the "U-turn" in the gold market following a period of extreme volatility. After gold hit a significant low of US$4,100 on March 23rd, it staged a US$300 rally, creating a powerful "Hammer" candlestick that has redefined the short-term technical floor.

The discussion focuses heavily on the fragile two-week ceasefire in the Gulf and its immediate impact on the energy-gold nexus.

Key Discussion Points

• The Hammer Reversal: Analysing the March 23rd price action where gold recovered from US$4,100 to close at US$4,407, providing a definitive technical signal.
• The Ceasefire Catalyst: How the cessation of hostilities led to a US$15/bbl drop in Dated Brent and a US$90 surge in gold over the week.
• Asymmetric Shocks: Why the US Dollar outperformed Eurozone and Asian currencies during the Hormuz blockade due to America's status as a net petroleum exporter.
• The Fragile Peace: Differing interpretations of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, specifically regarding the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Economic Scars: Why the shocks to refinery runs in Singapore and Southeast Asia are already "baked into the cake," regardless of the ceasefire’s duration.

Timestamps

• (00:00) – Introduction: Recording on 10 April 2026.
• 00:44) – Technical U-Turn: The US$4,100 low and the "Hammer" candle.
• (02:15) – Currency Dynamics: The dollar as a safe haven and the balance of trade shock.
• (04:25) – The Ceasefire Stress Test: US, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz negotiations.
• (06:06) – Rate Expectations: Why Fed pricing remains largely unchanged despite the conflict.
• (07:32) – Positioning Update: Steady managed money longs and global ETF holdings (98.55m oz).
• (08:21) – Price Targets: Short-term upside to US$4,830; medium-term resistance at US$5,075.
• (11:25) – Global Investors Summit: Nick previews his upcoming trip to Hong Kong.

Current Trend: Gold remains technically bearish in the daily timeframe despite the rally; a close above US$5,100 is required to challenge the Daily Ichimoku Cloud top.

Resistance Levels: US$4,935 (Cloud Base) and US$5,075 (Cloud Top).

Support Levels: US$4,100 (Hammer Low) and US$4,450 (Short-term downside target).

More Resources

• Technical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional analysis at abcrefinery.com/podcast.
• Follow Shae Russell: @shaearussell
• Follow Nick Frappell: @nick_frappell