The Man from the Train

The Solving of a Century-Old Serial Killer Mystery

By: Bill James, Rachel McCarthy James

Narrated by: John Bedford Lloyd

Length: 17 hrs and 4 mins

Publisher's Summary

Using unprecedented, dramatically compelling sleuthing techniques, legendary statistician and baseball writer Bill James applies his analytical acumen to crack an unsolved century-old mystery surrounding one of the deadliest serial killers in American history.

Between 1898 and 1912, families across the country were bludgeoned in their sleep with the blunt side of an axe. Jewelry and valuables were left in plain sight, bodies were piled together, faces covered with cloth. Some of these cases, like the infamous Villasca, Iowa, murders, received national attention. But few people believed the crimes were related. And fewer still would realize that all of these families lived within walking distance to a train station.

When celebrated baseball statistician and true-crime expert Bill James first learned about these horrors, he began to investigate others that might fit the same pattern. Applying the same know-how he brings to his legendary baseball analysis, he empirically determined which crimes were committed by the same person. Then, after sifting through thousands of local newspapers, court transcripts, and public records, he and his daughter, Rachel, made an astonishing discovery: They learned the true identity of this monstrous criminal. In turn they uncovered one of the deadliest serial killers in America.

Riveting and immersive, with writing as sharp as the cold side of an axe, The Man from the Train paints a vivid, psychologically perceptive portrait of America at the dawn of the 20th century, when crime was regarded as a local problem and opportunistic private detectives exploited a dysfunctional judicial system. James shows how these cultural factors enabled such an unspeakable series of crimes to occur, and his groundbreaking approach to true crime will convince skeptics, amaze aficionados, and change the way we view criminal history.

©2017 Bill James & Rachel McCarthy James. All rights reserved. (P)2017 Simon & Schuster Audio. All rights reserved.

Lighten Up a little

I almost didn't get this book for all the poor reviews of the author's writing style and format of his thesis. But there was something about the narrator that drew me in and I figured I could return if I didn't love it. Much to my surprise, I enjoyed the heck out of it and really enjoyed the tongue in cheek humor that occasionally arose and the way the author spoke directly to you the listener/reader. Given the material, this could have been a really dry, boring, horrific read/listen filled with so many dreary details. Instead, it felt more like Murder on the Orient Express - a little over the top at times and a lot of talking to the "camera". I thought it was a really good listen.
To the detractors: Yes, he could have been more concise; Yes, he could have laid it out in chronological order; But he didn't and I'm OK with that. I wonder if I would have enjoyed it as much with a different narrator... I think not. Mr. Lloyd was perfect for this book - just perfect.

Wow!

This was a very well thought out book about a series of murders I've never heard about. Although the layout is at times rather disorganized, I particularly enjoyed his descriptions of what life was like in that time period - how news papers and literacy were linked, the way policing worked, etc.

Assuming their research is solid and they didn't cherry pick facts to fit their narrative (I'm too lazy to do the research myself), I think their conclusion is pretty solid. And I got epic goosebumps when I listened to the last tidbit about where the murderer probably ended up.

I need to listen again and take notes and make diagrams to try to make sense of it all. Wow!

Extremely interesting

While I had known of the horrific 1912 murders of the Moore family in Vallisca, Iowa, I assumed with certainty it was an isolated case and perpetrated by someone known to the family. To learn of the countless similar family axe murders across the country in the same time period was astounding. Great job by the authors as far as research and telling the tale of this twisted psychopathic serial killer and how he managed to wipe out entire families for many years without ever being identified. Until this book, that is. While much of this story is extremely disturbing, it is also very historically educational. I learned so much about the justice system of the US in that era, or unjust system in many cases. For anyone who enjoys unsolved crime mysteries, this is a great story.

Repetitive and Frustrating

I enjoy true crime and initially I really enjoyed this book but it's just one chapter after another of axe murder without resolution. There are some really interesting anecdotes that break it up, but it's the same thing over and over again. Don't misunderstand, I'm not squeamish about gore and in fact I'd argue the author is actually a bit prudish in discussing the both the murders and the sexual assaults. I just found myself about halfway through thinking "ok, I got it. Is there no way we can move this along?" It's also a very conversational tone. There are a lot of author asides and "We'll tell you about that in the next chapter. " At first I thought this was charming. But by 30 chapters in ( and 15 more to go) I was frustrated. Overall it was like a college paper where an aspiring writer did a ton of research, failed to reach any satisfying conclusion, then got the narrator from the Dukes of Hazard to read their paper aloud. By the end it was a slog just to finish it.

Engrossing, but 2nd listening accentuates flaws

EDIT: I've re-read my original review and have to say that I still agree with most of it. The change I would make is that the negative aspects came far closer to the surface listening the second time around. The authors make very speculative assumptions to support their theories (as stated below, often with acknowledgement), yet it became more clear how dismissive they were of alternative speculations. Therefore the acknowledgements rang more and more hollow as the chapters went on.
Similarly, the sketchy statistical assertions wore thin. (Assigning % likelihood of the man from the train as the killer, and calculating by those percentages the deaths for each crime, to get a hypothetical total death toll). Moreover, earnestly promising that they were very conservative with the estimations of % likelihood, it rather defeated the purpose, and lessened their credibility. And for some reason, completely missed I think in my first listening, was the author (not sure if it was the father or daughter of the team) berating the listener, calling them expletives if they think the crimes happened in little towns where nothing ever really happens. Where did that come from? Unnecessary. Still, the book was quite engrossing, and I have to accept that my first impression was honest, but my second was a little more critical.

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First of all, I was completely captivated by the story. I eagerly listened, I anticipated listening, I listened at night in bed, and I re-listened what I had missed after falling asleep. So I definitely have to give this book a positive review. However, that doesn't mean there aren't a few shortcomings.

Typical of many books like this, is the review of being "well-researched". I suspect it was (for all I know), but it was oddly rather refreshing to hear how many times the authors said that they just don't know, or couldn't find information. It would be easy to claim laziness, but I just think that so much time had past, and rural records being so scant to begin with, it was always going to be a difficulty. They addressed it head-on, to their credit.

They very effectively (perhaps manipulatively, considering your perspective) present the most compelling crimes to assign to the man from the train, followed by those less apparently connected, and various seeming outliers. They create a profile of the killer and skilfully build up a case against him.

That being said, some of the conclusions edge to the sketchy. For example, most of the crimes were done with an axe, but when one killing used a different implement, the rationalization is that surely the killer, lacking an axe, would have used anything available in the madness of the moment. Any baseball fan whose ever heard a sabermetrician try to justify dWAR (defensive Wins Against Replacement), an attempt to statistically rank defensive baseball players' skills, you'll have the same rational skepticism (not the irrational skepticism the authors seem to hate). But yet again, the authors freely acknowledge that some conclusions are less convincing than others, and don't demand they all be accepted.

And it has to be said that the attempts at folksy humor get a bit tiring. In particular, the puns on names of victims, suspects and witnesses are unnecessary. (At one point, discussing the massacre of a family named Pfanschmidt, the phrase "the Schmitt hit the fan" is used.)

I waited for this from the moment it was introduced until it was available to be downloaded. And I was thoroughly intrigued, even with the minor annoyances. It was well worth the purchase.

Poorly written.

This would be a very interesting story if the author had done a better job writing it. I’m very disappointed in this book. The audio is also too low and hard to hear.

Parallels, Contradictions, Michael Lewis & FBI

As a law enforcement professional, I have been studying FBI profiling, data analytics and research techniques for decades. When I read Michael Lewis' "The Undoing Project", the story of two psychologists who developed a theory on rational analysis (my description, not theirs), I had to confront the the flaws in our criminal justice system and role subconscious bias plays in the decision-making process of investigators, prosecutors, defense attorneys, judges and juries. I also read Lewis' "Moneyball", the story of how Bill James' data analytics approach to baseball changed the way the game was played. I have read Robert Ressler's books on various serial killers (I'm including those where he was part of FBI profiling unit, was interviewed for the book, etc. and not exclusively the author) and the science behind deconstructing crime scenes into elements that help identify the perpetrator. Naturally, I was attracted to this book and I wanted to like it more than I did.

James and his daughter conducted some pretty thorough research on whole family homicides in the US (and Europe) from the late 1800s through the early 1900s. Unfortunately, official records from that period were inadequate and they had to rely on newspaper accounts. They detail all the "facts" reported about each murder, and they explain their process for culling through reports to identify the facts that they ultimately deem reliable and the reasons for it. There are times where they venture into speculation, and to be fair, they do readily admit when they are doing so. There is something that bothers me about the way these ideas are presented, but I can't fully articulate it. There is a rational way to present a hypothesis, then cite all the evidence in support of a particular conclusion. Perhaps, it's some of the snarky comments or the writing style overall that detracts from what is really a very well researched historical investigation of a series of unsolved homicides. In the end, the authors follow many rules/guidelines for identifying and analyzing facts consistent with the Michael Lewis books, FBI profiling techniques and data analytics on propensities, probabilities, projections and outcomes. However, they will then veer sharply and speculate. The personality profile and supposed physical description are not supported with the same attention to evidence and detail. Conclusions about the perpetrator's sexual history are baseless and contradict the rules of rational analysis. The authors revealed their personal contempt and disgust rather than creating a hypothesis based on known facts and criminal offender statistics. The book ends with "woulda, coulda, shoulda" criticisms. It makes me wonder if this was part of the original draft or added to satisfy a publisher/editor's request. Raw data and conclusion drawing can be dull and hard to market as entertaining or engaging. By the end, I was left somewhat unsatisfied with the "enjoyment" factor for this book due to writing style, inconsistent application of analytical rules and jarring intrusions of author voice.

On the research end, I thought the authors did a very good job. This part was particularly impressive given the lack of resource materials available on murder investigations from this period. I appreciated the historical context of small town America, lack of law enforcement resources, the significance of private investigators and reward money and the lifestyle data relevant to the victims' circumstances (railway, home heating fuel, logging/mining industry, etc.). It made want to review their raw research to expand my list of resources for future projects. My one criticism about their research is on their attempts to obtain more information about ***SPOILER ALERT***



Paul Mueller. If he immigrated from Germany/Europe after 1882, there should be immigration records for major ports of entry. German immigration was high during the late 1800s to early 1900s. Large German settlements on the East Coast and in the Midwest are well documented. His first few years in the U.S. might have been more stable as he acquired lumberjack skills or tried to use his experience in the German military for work in America. If he returned to Europe after 1912, there would be similar records for that trip. Ship passenger lists for this time period are preserved and available on family ancestry sites. If the name and address of his sister were known, genealogical records may also be available. Census records for his sister's home town may have documented him as a relative living with her. I am unfamiliar with the prison systems in the states where these crimes occurred, so I don't know whether there is a central database for inmates incarcerated during the years the authors suspected he was put on a chain gang for some petty crimes. If he had been incarcerated at the state prison level (as opposed to a local county jail), there is a reasonable likelihood that there is a record of it. The prison file may include a photo, fingerprints and other identifying data such as place of birth, birthdate, citizenship status, family contacts and records related to the criminal conviction underlying his prison sentence (police report, court records). Datamining the internet based on just a name for records during this period of time is not solid research. Perhaps the authors' description of their search for more identifying information was tongue-in-cheek. Given the detailed nature of all their other work, I would expect some explanation of their identification efforts had it been as rigorous as other leads they followed to a dead end as noted elsewhere in their book.

If you are a true crime fan, interested in crime data analysis or a fan of Bill James, Michael Lewis and/or Robert Ressler, I would recommend this audiobook. There is a lot to learn from what the authors did and their work helps expand our knowledge about topics Lewis examines in his work. It's another good case example for those studying psycho-criminal profiling, especially for understanding historical context and its impact on the M.O. of a serial killer. It might be better to get the book rather than the audiobook, as there might be citations, resource lists, maps, etc. which would enhance the reader's experience and provide a more satisfying read.

Good but Dry

This book was fantastically researched and factually facilitating. However it definitely reads more like a research paper at times. There’s very little descriptive narrative, it’s almost all laid out point by point. I liked the book, but would recommend listening at 1.25x or faster to get through it.

As good as true crime gets

Fascinating to have a sports statistician tackle this 100 year old mystery - actually dozens of mysteries that occurred in a time span around the beginning of the 20th century. The James team offers a pretty convincing case that this spate of mass murders can be tied together, and backs it up with numbers that are tough to argue with.
A great read, creepy as hell and hard to put down.

Interesting Story Mangled by the Author

I was intrigued by the premise of this book having seen a documentary on the tragic murders in Vallisca, Iowa that occurred in 1912. This really could have been an interesting story. However, the author's smug, ham-handed handling left me more irritated than enlightened.

The author is simply not a good writer. His attempts at humor come off as snarky at best and horribly insensitive at worst. Yes, the crimes discussed in the book occurred a very, very long time ago, but the victims were still human beings. Turning their deaths into bad puns that appear to have been leftover from a failed Vaudville act is just in poor taste.

What I found most irritating though, was the author's frequent use of the breaking the the fourth wall trope. Directly addressing the reader/listener without flatlining the story is difficult. Since he just isn't clever enough to pull it off, he comes off as condesceding and snarky. It's like having to listen to an unfunny, creepy, bachelor uncle on Thanksgiving who doesn't realize his jokes stink.

Since so much of the book consists of...I will tell you this- show you that, this is why everyone else missed... the author appears to thinks he's the smartest guy in the room but his conclusions are quite a stretch and his solution to the crimes falls flat.

I agree with another reviewer that the author's handling of the racial issues of the time (and ours) also fails.

It really goes on with nothing fresh to add

struggled to maintain the will to live. this really is a well researched book... yet honestly, never really managing to capture my interest. It turned into a test of endurance.

Best crime book I’ve nearly read in years

Great unknown mystery solved with logic and a little bit of humour. Narrator was fantastic. I hope Bill James (and Rachel) sound just like him.

Intriguing and persuasive argument

All the components of a good book here. All the evidence presented seems well researched and thought out. The suspect presented seems plausible if not probable. I was inspired to explore aspects further and re explore the arguments and evidence a second time.

The book opened up an area of American crime history to me in a very accessible manner and I am left in no doubt that there was more of a sequence to the murders of 1911/1912 than previously thought.

A thoroughly enjoyable read/ listen!

Complete conjecture. An utter waste of time.

Do not waste your time and money on this boring and pointless book. The only good thing was the narrator; everything else was extremely poor.

Fascinating unknown story.

Really interesting, frightening and atmospheric book about a series of axe familcides across North America at the beginning of the 20th century. Well researched and perfectly captures rural, small town life in the US at that time. Very frustrating at times, partly down to lack of available information and the attitude of law enforcement at the time. I also think there is too much repetition, I get it for linking the crimes, but certainly phrases or information was unnecessarily repeated again and again. However this was a fascinating story and I couldn't stop listening.