Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump vows to hit Iran ‘extremely hard’ within weeks, Crude oil surges 5% on Trump's defiant tone

In his address to the nation, President Trump declared that U.S. military objectives in Iran are “nearing completion” and that the war could wind down in about two to three weeks, assuming continued pressure and ongoing talks

Trump also struck a defiant tone on energy and global markets, insisting the U.S. will not bear the burden of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and arguing that American strength has forced Iran into a weakened position after a month‑long conflict.

Oil prices jumped over 4% after President Trump's prime-time address failed to offer a clear timeline for ending the U.S.-Iran war, with Trump vowing to hit Iran 'extremely hard' over the coming weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, disrupting an estimated 10–15 million barrels per day of supply — the largest oil supply shock in history by volume.

U.S. equities advanced yesterday for a second straight session as diplomatic signals eased tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose roughly 1.2%, and the Dow added 224 points, or 0.48%

Shares of Eli Lilly climbed more than 6% after the FDA cleared a new weight-loss medication with no food or water restrictions. Rival Novo Nordisk edged 0.2% lower following the announcement

Nifty staged a relief rally yesterday, gaining 348 points to close at 22,679 on optimism that the war that has jolted global markets and disrupted energy supplies may be nearing a conclusion.

22,283 will act as a key support, while upside resistance looms at 23,000.

Our markets are poised to open nearly 2% lower on rising fears of intensified military action in the coming weeks.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Geopolitical Risk Takes Centre Stage, RBI Comes to the Rupee Rescue

U.S. equity markets ended last week on a negative note, with the S&P 500 down about 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite slipping about 3.2%, marking the Nasdaq's worst weekly performance since the start of the U.S.–Iran conflict.

The S&P 500 closed at 6,369, suffering its fifth consecutive weekly loss and entering its longest losing streak in nearly four years.

Equity weakness was driven largely by renewed tensions in the Middle East, with Iran‑related headlines and fears of a prolonged conflict weighing heavily on risk appetite.

Rate‑sensitive sectors bore the brunt of the sell‑off. Overall, the week underscored a shift toward risk‑off positioning, with traders repricing the odds of an extended geopolitical standoff and higher-for‑longer rates.

Crude Oil jumped after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi launched missile and drone strikes on Israel over the weekend, widening the Middle East conflict. Brent crude surged, putting it on track for a record monthly gain as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, disrupting an estimated 15–16 million barrels of daily oil flow.

Over the past 48 hours, the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran in the Gulf has intensified, with fresh missile and drone attacks across the region amid stalled diplomacy. Iran has continued to fire missiles and drones at Israeli‑held territory and Gulf‑based US military facilities, while Israel and the US have carried out retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and nuclear‑related sites. The conflict has left the Strait of Hormuz under intermittent Iranian naval pressure, with ripple effects unsettling global energy markets.

US‑backed diplomatic outreach and Gulf‑led shuttle diplomacy have gained modest momentum, but no ceasefire or de‑escalation has been announced yet.

Indian benchmarks extended their decline for the fifth consecutive week, marking one of the most prolonged periods of weakness in recent times. The Indian Rupee hit a fresh record low on Friday, touching the 93.98 level against the US Dollar, further dampening investor confidence.

RBI comes to the Rupee Rescue:

The RBI imposed a uniform $100 million limit on the net open foreign exchange positions of banks, replacing the previous flexible cap of 25% of capital to stifle speculative "long-dollar" bets. Banks have been directed to unwind large currency positions by April 10, a move designed to trigger a temporary surge in dollar supply and provide immediate relief to the Rupee. RBI shifted its strategy from direct market intervention to regulatory tightening to preserve its "war chest."

Indian equity markets face a weak open, with a 1% to 1.5% drop expected amid flaring geopolitical tensions and a spike in crude oil prices. Technically, 23,465 remains a key resistance level, with 22,471 as the nearest support.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump announces 10-Day Pause on Strikes, A Reprieve for Oil and Markets

President Trump announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6 and offering markets near-term relief — though substantial uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz closure persists.

Brent crude and WTI each fell nearly 1% in early trading, a brief respite following the prior session's 5% surge driven by supply disruption fears.

The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 25% of global oil and LNG transits — has pushed Brent futures up approximately 40% and WTI up over 30% since hostilities began on February 28.

US equity markets deteriorated sharply on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% — its steepest single-session decline since the conflict's onset — while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.4%, slipping into correction territory. Losses deepened as investors grew increasingly concerned about the conflict's implications for inflation and growth.

The 10-year US yield climbed to 4.41% — its highest closing level since July 2024 — while the 2-year yield reached its highest point since June 2025, as traders reassessed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay rate cuts.

Despite the equity rebound, the Indian rupee remains under pressure, hovering near record lows of approximately ₹94.1 against the dollar. The currency's weakness reflects sustained foreign institutional outflows, which totalled nearly $11 billion in March alone — underscoring persistent macroeconomic anxiety even as near-term energy price fears have partially abated.

Indian equity markets reopen today, March 27, following the Ram Navami holiday. Heading into the break, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 posted gains exceeding 1.6%, buoyed by broad-based buying and stabilising global cues — though persistent geopolitical tensions are likely to keep sentiment in check.

The recent pullback has nudged the Nifty back above its 10-day SMA (23,240) — its first close above that level since the drawdown sparked by the West Asia conflict. Key support has shifted higher to 23060, with resistance clustered in the 23378–23618 zone.

Indian markets are poised to open around 0.5% lower on weak global cues.