Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

S&P & Dow Hit New Records, US Trade Deal Hope Sparks 300-Point Nifty Rally

The S&P 500 and Dow registered record closing highs on Monday as technology stocks and Walmart gained, with investors largely dismissing concerns about the Justice Department's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Stocks opened lower on the Powell news. The Justice Department's threat of indictment, ostensibly focused on Powell's congressional testimony regarding a building renovation project, heightened concerns about the Fed's independence.

Powell called the move a "pretext" to gain influence over interest rates that President Donald Trump has pressed to cut sharply since taking office in January 2025.

Credit card company stocks fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump proposed capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year. Capital One Financial fell 8%, while Citigroup and American Express dropped 4%. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo each declined approximately 2%.

The dollar held its losses on Tuesday after the Trump administration opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, threatening the central bank's independence and confidence in U.S. assets.

Japan's Nikkei average surged to a record high on Tuesday as markets caught up with Wall Street's recent two-day rally following a public holiday in Japan earlier this week.

Investors also bought Japanese equities on expectations of increased fiscal spending amid speculation that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early election to bolster her coalition government's parliamentary majority.

Gold jumped 2.5% to an all-time high on Monday, while silver futures climbed 7.3% to a record level. The moves followed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's disclosure that he received Justice Department subpoenas regarding testimony on headquarters renovations, raising concerns about central bank independence.

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as heightened concerns about Iran and potential supply disruptions outweighed prospects of increased crude supply from Venezuela.

TCS and HCL Tech reported mixed quarterly results yesterday, with TCS keeping revenue and margin gains on a steady path while HCL Tech faced profitability pressures despite stronger topline growth.

The Nifty 50 broke its five-day losing streak, climbing 106 points to close at 25,790. The reversal came swiftly after 12:00 PM, when optimistic remarks from U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gor sparked a dramatic rally. His confirmation that India and the USA are actively finalising a trade deal triggered a sharp recovery of more than 300 points from the day's lows.

A sustained move above 25,800 could extend the rally toward the next resistance levels at the 50-day and 20-day DEMAs, positioned near 25,900 and 26,000, respectively. On the downside, the recent low of 25,473 may provide short-term support.

Indian markets are positioned to open modestly higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street Hits All-Time Highs as Weak Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Optimism, Indian Markets Tumble on Trump Tariff Threat.

US stocks advanced in the first full trading week of 2026, with investors largely ignoring geopolitical tensions and pushing major indexes to all-time highs.

Rotation from mega-caps to cyclicals broadened market participation, while focus on President Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's rate path supported industrials and small caps.

The S&P 500 rose 1.6% last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.9%.

The weaker-than-expected jobs report fuelled optimism about potential rate cuts, lifting Wall Street broadly.

December nonfarm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, below the expected 60,000-70,000 and down from November's revised 56,000.

Unemployment fell to 4.4% from 4.5%, signalling a low-hiring, low-firing environment.

Housing stocks surged after President Trump announced $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases to lower rates.

Indian stock markets suffered their worst weekly loss in over three months, driven by profit-booking and global tariff concerns.

President Trump's threat of 500% tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil rattled emerging markets, triggering risk-off sentiment and a rotation out of cyclicals.

With no domestic catalysts, investors booked profits after recent highs.

The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 2.55%, and the Nifty 50 fell 2.45% to 25,683, while the Sensex shed over 2,100 points.

A decisive break below the 100-day EMA at 25,619 could accelerate selling toward the next major support at 25,318 (November 2025 swing low).

Any recovery attempts will likely face stiff resistance in the 25,950- 26,000 zone.

Investors now await upcoming IT sector earnings and US inflation data for the next directional triggers.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Dow, S&P 500 Give Back Ground, But Nasdaq Moves Modestly Higher

US Markets remain cautiously positioned amid geopolitical developments, upcoming Supreme Court tariff decisions, and the early stages of Q4 earnings season.

American stocks fluctuated throughout the trading day on Wednesday before ending the relatively lacklustre session mixed.

Energy stocks declined sharply, with Exxon Mobil falling 3% and Chevron dropping 4%, after oil prices retreated following Trump's announcement that Venezuela would provide up to 50 million barrels to the US at market prices.

Housing stocks moved sharply lower over the course of the session, dragging the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index down by 2.6 per cent.

Semiconductor stocks steadied after explosive gains yesterday, with SanDisk surging nearly 28% after AI-optimised storage breakthroughs.

Precious metals faced profit-taking ahead of commodity index rebalancing.

ADP's December employment data showed 41,000 jobs added, slightly missing expectations. Economists had expected private-sector employment to increase by 47,000 jobs, compared with the 32,000 job loss originally reported for the previous month.

Asian equity markets showed mixed performance, with moderate declines in major indices amid cautious sentiment. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1%.

Nifty extended its losing streak to a third straight session yesterday, slipping 37 points to settle at 26,140, but managing to close off the day’s low.

Despite the short-term softness, the broader positional trend remains bullish, supported by a pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms on the daily charts.

On the upside, the recent swing high at 26,373 is likely to act as an immediate resistance level, while 26,000 is expected to provide strong near-term support.

Indian markets are poised to open modestly lower on the back of weak Asian cues.

Dow Reaches Record as Energy Stocks Surge Following U.S. Strike on Venezuela

Wall Street climbed on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting an all-time high driven by surging energy shares after a U.S. military operation captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Investors anticipate the move will grant U.S. companies access to the world's largest oil reserves. The Trump administration plans to meet with oil executives this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan production.

Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, but output has collapsed in recent decades due to mismanagement, limited foreign investment following the nationalisation of the industry, and international sanctions.

Energy stocks led Monday's gains, with Chevron—a leading private oil operator in Venezuela — surging 5.1%. Financial stocks also posted strong advances, helping push the Dow to its record close.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders weighed the prospect of increased Venezuelan crude output, adding to expectations of ample global supply amid weak demand.

On the currency front, the Indian rupee weakened for the fourth consecutive session, depreciating by 8 paise to 90.28 against the US dollar. The currency has now declined in nine of the past ten trading sessions, weighed down by uncertainty over potential trade negotiations between Washington and New Delhi.

Asian equities are trading at fresh record highs today, with MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific gauge extending its rally, led by Japanese and Hong Kong benchmarks near new peaks.

Nifty ended its three-day winning streak on Monday, slipping 89 points to close at 26,239.

Despite profit-booking at higher levels, the Nifty held comfortably above its 5-day EMA, currently placed at 26188, signalling that the short-term bullish undertone remains intact.

As long as the index remains above the crucial support zone of 26,100, the near-term trend is expected to stay positive. On the upside, a high of 26,373 is likely to act as an immediate resistance. A decisive move above this level could rekindle buying momentum, paving the way for a potential rally towards 26,500.

Foreign investors have continued to cover their short positions in the derivatives markets.

Indian markets are positioned to open higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Indian Markets look set to surge to record levels in the new year's first full trading week.

US stock markets navigated a holiday-shortened last week marked by early volatility and net weekly losses despite intraday recoveries.

Indian stock markets demonstrated resilience throughout the holiday-thinned week, closing higher on low volumes driven by year-end positioning.

Optimism was fuelled by robust GDP growth (8.2%), strong automotive sales, encouraging updates in the banking sector, anticipation of Budget 2026, and expectations of favourable US trade deal.

Asian equities reached record highs as investors extended their positioning in technology stocks. Oil prices fluctuated while precious metals gained.

The Trump administration launched what it termed a "large-scale strike against Venezuela," capturing President Maduro to face criminal charges. Trump announced the US will administer Venezuela until a "safe, proper, and judicious transition" can occur. As we expected in our Annual market strategy, crude oil is likely to remain subdued through the year on a gradually rising supply.

MSCI's Asian stock index surged 0.7% at the open after a closely watched technology gauge reached an all-time high. US equity-index futures also rose as Asian trading commenced following the Venezuelan president's ouster, creating a fresh geopolitical flashpoint.

Nifty has decisively breached previous swing-high resistance levels at 26,236 and 26,325, confirming a decisive breakout from its prior consolidation range. With the index now in uncharted territory, near-term upside targets extend toward 26,500 and beyond. Immediate support has shifted higher to approximately 26,100, likely providing a near-term floor during pullbacks.

As expected, FPIs have begun covering their short positions in index futures.

Indian markets are positioned to open higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Tensions, Dollar Begins 2026 on Weak Footing

Most of the global stock markets remained closed yesterday in observance of New Year's Day.

The UK's FTSE 100 index paused near record levels in the final stretch of 2025 on Thursday, wrapping up its strongest annual gain in 16 years in a shortened trading session.

The U.S. dollar made a feeble start to 2026 on Friday after struggling against most currencies last year, while the yen steadied near 10-month lows as traders awaited economic data this month to gauge the path of interest rates.

A narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and other economies has cast a shadow over the foreign exchange market, resulting in most major currencies appreciating sharply against the dollar in 2025, with the yen an exception.

Oil prices edged up on the first day of trade in 2026 after last year posting their biggest annual loss since 2020, as Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil facilities and a U.S. blockade pressured Venezuela's exports.

Brent crude futures climbed 14 cents on Friday to $60.99 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.56 a barrel, up 14 cents.

South Korea's factory activity expanded in December, after two months of contraction, on a rebound in export demand, a private-sector survey showed on Friday, with manufacturers' optimism surging to a 3.5-year high.

Nifty extended its winning streak for the second straight session yesterday, adding 16 points to close at 26,146. The index opened 44 points higher but remained range-bound through most of the session, consolidating within a narrow band.

A sustained move above 26,234 could signal a breakout from the current consolidation phase and open the door for a retest of all-time highs and potentially higher levels. On the downside, the 25,900 zone is expected to act as immediate short-term support for the index.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher on strong global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

The new year promises new highs for Indian markets.

Happy New Year! We hope 2026 brings you prosperity, good health, and success in all your endeavours. Thank you for including this commentary in your daily routine.

Wall Street's major indexes closed lower in the final trading session of 2025, yet still delivered substantial annual gains following a turbulent year shaped by President Donald Trump's tariff uncertainties and enthusiasm surrounding AI-focused stocks.

The Dow posted its eighth consecutive monthly gain, the longest such streak since 2017-2018.

The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will remain closed today in observance of New Year's Day.

For the full year, the S&P 500 climbed 16 per cent while the Nasdaq Composite surged 20 per cent, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit returns for both indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 13 per cent, while India's Nifty eked out 10.5 per cent gains.

Major Asian equity markets closed on Wednesday on a mixed note amid shortened sessions, holidays, and light trading volumes. Most regional markets remain positioned to finish the year with solid gains, buoyed by the AI-driven rally.

Oil prices declined on Wednesday, recording an annual loss of nearly 20 per cent as expectations of oversupply mounted in a year marked by geopolitical conflicts, elevated tariffs, increased OPEC+ output, and sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.

Nifty staged a strong recovery on the first day of the January derivative series, snapping a four-day losing streak with a sharp 190-point rebound to close at 26,129.

A sustained move above the previous swing high resistance at 26,234 would confirm a breakout, paving the way for a move to fresh all-time highs above 26,325 and beyond.

On the downside, 25,900 now serves as immediate support, with any dips toward this level likely to attract buying interest from positional bulls.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher in today's trade

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

US Markets Drift Lower in Choppy Session; Fed Minutes Signal Caution

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed marginally lower Tuesday amid choppy trading, as gains in communication services stocks were offset by weakness in technology and financials, with the latter also dragging down the Dow.

After the previous session's decline, stocks drifted without clear direction throughout Tuesday's trading day, with major averages oscillating around the unchanged line.

Communication services shares led the S&P 500's gainers, driven by Meta Platforms' 1.1% advance. The technology giant announced its acquisition of Chinese-founded artificial intelligence start-up Manus, accelerating its integration of advanced AI capabilities across platforms including Facebook and Instagram.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting revealed a deeply nuanced debate preceded the decision to cut interest rates, underscoring the central bank's careful assessment of economic risks. Even some policymakers who voted for the rate reduction acknowledged "the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged," the minutes released Tuesday showed. With the Fed's next meeting scheduled for January 27-28, investors currently expect the central bank to hold rates steady.

Government data released Tuesday showed U.S. home prices rose in October at their slowest annual pace in over 13 years—a potential sign of improving affordability in the beleaguered housing market.

Indian rupee snapped its five-day losing streak, appreciating 18 paise to close at 89.79 against the dollar. The recovery came after the RBI reference rate, aided by year-end settlements and rebalancing flows. Gains were further supported by thin liquidity conditions and steady dollar supply from banks.

Despite the minor decline yesterday, Nifty’s close above the 50-DEMA at 25,837 keeps the short-term bullish structure intact. Metals, PSU Banks, and Auto led the gainers.

The highly volatile December series concluded yesterday with modest gains. In the stock futures segment, the January series opens with record-high open interest of 1,618 crore shares, surpassing the 1,576 crore shares recorded at the start of November 2025.

For Bank Nifty, the January series begins with sharply lower open interest of 12.47 lakh shares—the lowest level since January 2021—indicating substantial short covering.

At the start of the January series, FIIs' long-to-short ratio in index futures stands at 0.10, down from 0.18 in the previous series. This means 91% of total FII positions in index futures remain on the short side. Such a low ratio signals oversold positioning and raises the possibility of near-term short covering, which would bode well for the markets.

On the upside, Nifty needs to clear the 26,100 – 26,150 resistance zone to regain its bullish momentum and open the path for higher levels.

Indian markets are expected to open on a subdued note amid the absence of compelling global cues.