Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

S&P 500 notched its longest winning streak since October

Major U.S. stock indexes rose as investors reacted positively to a fragile two-week ceasefire and reports of direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. The S&P 500 closed above the key 6,800 psychological level, while the Dow Jones turned positive for the 2026 calendar year.

The Nasdaq outperformed other major benchmarks, driven by significant gains in mega-cap technology firms. Amazon shares climbed over 5% following internal AI chip developments, while Intel and Alphabet rallied on news of an expanded semiconductor partnership for Google Cloud infrastructure.

Futures edged slightly lower overnight as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, and diplomatic talks remained fragile heading into Friday.

Asian equity indices opened higher and are expected to consolidate at higher levels ahead of important talks between the U.S. and Iran regarding the recent geopolitical situation.

TCS reported USD revenue growth of 1.2% QoQ CC, which was in line with estimates, and the margins expanded by 10bps QoQ to reach 25.3% (best in the last eight quarters). TCS indicated better growth visibility for FY27E, bolstered by healthy deal wins, improving outlook, and strategic investments made over the last two quarters.

The growth confidence is led by an improved vertical outlook where BFSI is prioritising data transformation and scaled GenAI, Consumer Business is gaining market share through large-scale renewals, Manufacturing is focusing on supply chain modernisation, and CMI is showing signs of a rebound in IT spending.

The rupee's five-session rally stalled yesterday, shedding 8 paise to end at 92.66, alongside weakening Asian peers, pressured by higher crude prices and relentless FII outflows.

Nifty surrendered some gains yesterday amid dented hopes for a ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict and fresh inflationary worries. Nifty ended the day with a loss of 222 points, closing at 23,775.

Immediate support is seen around 23,500, while immediate resistance is placed at 24,000 and 24,200 on any rebound attempt.

Indian markets are poised to open marginally higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire

President Trump announced a two-week suspension of military strikes against Iran just hours before his 8 p.m. ET Tuesday deadline, following last-minute Pakistani diplomatic efforts. Iran agreed to allow safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire, triggering sweeping market moves across oil, equities, currencies, and crypto.

WTI Crude Oil tumbled as much as 17% to below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Oil had surged above $115 earlier in the session after reports of strikes on Iran's Kharg Island — the hub of roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports — before the diplomatic breakthrough reversed the move.

After a muted regular session where the S&P 500 eked out a 0.1% gain, and the Dow fell 0.2%, futures exploded higher post-ceasefire announcement. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.2% to 6,804, Nasdaq futures rallied 2.7%, and Dow futures surged 2%, as investors priced in hopes of a durable peace deal and resumption of Gulf oil flows.

Spot gold climbed 2.5% to $4,821 per ounce, its highest level since March 19, as the weaker dollar made bullion cheaper for foreign holders. Silver surged 4.7% to $77 per ounce, while platinum gained 2.5%, with all three precious metals benefiting from the risk-on shift and dollar softness following the ceasefire.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee wraps up its meeting today and will announce its decision at 10:00 AM. The market expects the RBI's MPC to maintain the repo rate at 5.25%.

A neutral stance is likely to persist, balancing global risks such as tensions in West Asia with domestic liquidity support, and avoiding further cuts unless growth falters.

The Nifty rose 155 points yesterday to close at 23,123, marking its fourth consecutive gain.

The Indian rupee extended its four-session winning run, gaining 5 paise to 93.01, fueled by lower crude prices, domestic equity recovery, and RBI-driven unwinding of bank arbitrage positions.

Nifty has closed above its 10-day EMA for the first time since the U.S.-Iran-Israel War erupted, also topping last week's high. The short-term trend has reversed, with resistance near 23,800-24000 and support at yesterday's low of 22,719.

Indian markets are poised for a strong surge at the open following the announcement of a ceasefire in Iran, easing geopolitical tensions and boosting investors' risk appetite.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Brace as Trump's Iran Ultimatum Nears

Global markets are on high alert as a critical geopolitical deadline approaches. Investors are focused on President Donald Trump’s 8:00 PM ET (6:30 AM IST, Wednesday) ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with threats of military escalation if a deal is not reached.

WTI Crude Oil climbed to $115 as President Trump reaffirmed his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges. The Strait, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, has remained disrupted since the conflict began on February 28, driving crude prices up approximately 90% year-to-date.

Iran dismissed a U.S.-backed 45-day ceasefire proposal supported by mediators including Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye, instead demanding a permanent end to hostilities, sanctions relief, and war damage compensation.

U.S. stocks advanced on Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.44%, the Nasdaq rising 0.54%, and the Dow adding 165 points, as investors parsed mixed signals on Iran negotiations. However, overnight futures retreated as Trump's escalating rhetoric dampened optimism for a ceasefire.

The rupee appreciated by 4 paise supported by risk-on sentiment fuelled by hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East.

The Nifty climbed 255 points to close at 22,968, marking its third consecutive session of gains. Nifty has never risen for more than three consecutive trading sessions since the U.S-Iran War started in late February. Whether this streak holds or breaks will be the defining market moment of today's session.

The short-term resistance for the Nifty is at 23,465, with supports at 22,800 and 22,540.

Our markets are slated to open half a percent lower on the back of cautious global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Pin Hope on Early Resolution to the Hormuz Crisis

The weekend offered no respite - fighting in the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict intensified, peace talks made no headway, with President Donald Trump sharply escalating rhetoric on social media.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly extended his self‑imposed deadlines for bombing Iran’s civilian infrastructure to April 7. In his latest social‑media posts, he has framed these extensions as temporary respites, warning that if Iran does not comply by the new deadline, he will unleash “Power Plant Day and Bridge Day” targeting power plants, bridges, and other critical civil infrastructure.

US markets ended the holiday-shortened week higher, snapping a five-week losing streak amid volatility from US-Iran tensions and oil price surges.

Major indices posted strong weekly gains last week - S&P 500 +3.4%, Dow +3.0%, Nasdaq +4.4%.

The U.S. economy generated 178,000 jobs in March, well above economists’ consensus expectations and rebounding from the previous month’s revised net loss of 133,000 jobs.

Indian equity benchmarks ended the shortened week marginally lower, with the Sensex and Nifty closing around 73320 and 22713, respectively, after a sharp intraday recovery on Thursday.

The week saw heavy volatility, beginning with deep corrections on global geopolitical worries and crude oil spikes, but sentiment improved in the latter sessions, halting a multi‑week losing streak for the indices.

Sectorally, IT stocks outperformed while banking and financials remained under pressure, reflecting selective risk‑on flows and ongoing caution in broader midcap and small‑cap segments.

The RBI's MPC meeting is the key event of the week, as it will be the first since the war.

The U.S. and several Gulf states have publicly pushed for mediation, with Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye positioning themselves as potential intermediaries.

Negotiations are underway for a 45‑day ceasefire, but no concrete breakthrough has emerged.

Donald Trump expressed optimism in a recent social media post that a deal with Iran is imminent, extending the negotiation deadline to Tuesday at 8:00 PM EST (early Wednesday morning Indian time). The development signals a potential de-escalation in tensions. Should a truce materialise, markets — which have seen notable corrections recently — could be poised for a meaningful rebound.

Indian markets are likely to open flat, digesting the latest geopolitical developments.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump vows to hit Iran ‘extremely hard’ within weeks, Crude oil surges 5% on Trump's defiant tone

In his address to the nation, President Trump declared that U.S. military objectives in Iran are “nearing completion” and that the war could wind down in about two to three weeks, assuming continued pressure and ongoing talks

Trump also struck a defiant tone on energy and global markets, insisting the U.S. will not bear the burden of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and arguing that American strength has forced Iran into a weakened position after a month‑long conflict.

Oil prices jumped over 4% after President Trump's prime-time address failed to offer a clear timeline for ending the U.S.-Iran war, with Trump vowing to hit Iran 'extremely hard' over the coming weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, disrupting an estimated 10–15 million barrels per day of supply — the largest oil supply shock in history by volume.

U.S. equities advanced yesterday for a second straight session as diplomatic signals eased tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose roughly 1.2%, and the Dow added 224 points, or 0.48%

Shares of Eli Lilly climbed more than 6% after the FDA cleared a new weight-loss medication with no food or water restrictions. Rival Novo Nordisk edged 0.2% lower following the announcement

Nifty staged a relief rally yesterday, gaining 348 points to close at 22,679 on optimism that the war that has jolted global markets and disrupted energy supplies may be nearing a conclusion.

22,283 will act as a key support, while upside resistance looms at 23,000.

Our markets are poised to open nearly 2% lower on rising fears of intensified military action in the coming weeks.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Geopolitical Risk Takes Centre Stage, RBI Comes to the Rupee Rescue

U.S. equity markets ended last week on a negative note, with the S&P 500 down about 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite slipping about 3.2%, marking the Nasdaq's worst weekly performance since the start of the U.S.–Iran conflict.

The S&P 500 closed at 6,369, suffering its fifth consecutive weekly loss and entering its longest losing streak in nearly four years.

Equity weakness was driven largely by renewed tensions in the Middle East, with Iran‑related headlines and fears of a prolonged conflict weighing heavily on risk appetite.

Rate‑sensitive sectors bore the brunt of the sell‑off. Overall, the week underscored a shift toward risk‑off positioning, with traders repricing the odds of an extended geopolitical standoff and higher-for‑longer rates.

Crude Oil jumped after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi launched missile and drone strikes on Israel over the weekend, widening the Middle East conflict. Brent crude surged, putting it on track for a record monthly gain as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, disrupting an estimated 15–16 million barrels of daily oil flow.

Over the past 48 hours, the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran in the Gulf has intensified, with fresh missile and drone attacks across the region amid stalled diplomacy. Iran has continued to fire missiles and drones at Israeli‑held territory and Gulf‑based US military facilities, while Israel and the US have carried out retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and nuclear‑related sites. The conflict has left the Strait of Hormuz under intermittent Iranian naval pressure, with ripple effects unsettling global energy markets.

US‑backed diplomatic outreach and Gulf‑led shuttle diplomacy have gained modest momentum, but no ceasefire or de‑escalation has been announced yet.

Indian benchmarks extended their decline for the fifth consecutive week, marking one of the most prolonged periods of weakness in recent times. The Indian Rupee hit a fresh record low on Friday, touching the 93.98 level against the US Dollar, further dampening investor confidence.

RBI comes to the Rupee Rescue:

The RBI imposed a uniform $100 million limit on the net open foreign exchange positions of banks, replacing the previous flexible cap of 25% of capital to stifle speculative "long-dollar" bets. Banks have been directed to unwind large currency positions by April 10, a move designed to trigger a temporary surge in dollar supply and provide immediate relief to the Rupee. RBI shifted its strategy from direct market intervention to regulatory tightening to preserve its "war chest."

Indian equity markets face a weak open, with a 1% to 1.5% drop expected amid flaring geopolitical tensions and a spike in crude oil prices. Technically, 23,465 remains a key resistance level, with 22,471 as the nearest support.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump announces 10-Day Pause on Strikes, A Reprieve for Oil and Markets

President Trump announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6 and offering markets near-term relief — though substantial uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz closure persists.

Brent crude and WTI each fell nearly 1% in early trading, a brief respite following the prior session's 5% surge driven by supply disruption fears.

The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 25% of global oil and LNG transits — has pushed Brent futures up approximately 40% and WTI up over 30% since hostilities began on February 28.

US equity markets deteriorated sharply on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% — its steepest single-session decline since the conflict's onset — while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.4%, slipping into correction territory. Losses deepened as investors grew increasingly concerned about the conflict's implications for inflation and growth.

The 10-year US yield climbed to 4.41% — its highest closing level since July 2024 — while the 2-year yield reached its highest point since June 2025, as traders reassessed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay rate cuts.

Despite the equity rebound, the Indian rupee remains under pressure, hovering near record lows of approximately ₹94.1 against the dollar. The currency's weakness reflects sustained foreign institutional outflows, which totalled nearly $11 billion in March alone — underscoring persistent macroeconomic anxiety even as near-term energy price fears have partially abated.

Indian equity markets reopen today, March 27, following the Ram Navami holiday. Heading into the break, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 posted gains exceeding 1.6%, buoyed by broad-based buying and stabilising global cues — though persistent geopolitical tensions are likely to keep sentiment in check.

The recent pullback has nudged the Nifty back above its 10-day SMA (23,240) — its first close above that level since the drawdown sparked by the West Asia conflict. Key support has shifted higher to 23060, with resistance clustered in the 23378–23618 zone.

Indian markets are poised to open around 0.5% lower on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Celebrate Trump's Peace Overtures

U.S. stock indexes posted their best single-day performance since early February, after a five-day pause in planned military strikes against Iranian infrastructure. The Dow gained over 630 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.15%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.38%.

Iranian state media, however, denied that any direct negotiations had taken place.

Oil markets reversed, a relief that lifted airline and cruise line stocks, which had been under pressure from soaring fuel costs.

Asia-Pacific markets rallied sharply on Tuesday. South Korea's Kospi surged 3.5%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced 2.2%, aided by data showing headline inflation fell to 1.3% in February — its lowest reading since March 2022 — giving the Bank of Japan room to hold off on rate hikes.

The diplomatic shift pulled capital out of safe-haven assets. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.34%, and gold briefly dropped toward $4,100 an ounce before stabilising near $4400 as investors rotated back into equities.

Indian equity markets suffered a significant crash yesterday as geopolitical friction between the U.S. and Iran intensified. The Sensex plunged over 1,800 points, while the Nifty dropped approximately 2.6% to settle near the 22512 level, driven by widespread risk aversion across nearly all sectors.

The Indian rupee fell to a record low of 93.94 against the U.S. dollar. This depreciation is largely attributed to escalating import energy costs for India and sustained capital outflows from foreign portfolio investors who have withdrawn over ₹1 trillion so far this year.

Fitch Ratings has increased India's economic growth projection for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to 7.5%, citing robust domestic demand and infrastructure investment.

Despite the previous session's heavy losses, early indicators suggest a positive opening for Indian markets. The GIFT Nifty is indicating a 1.5% higher opening, reflecting a potential recovery following reports of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Equity markets have corrected roughly 15% from their recent highs, driven by geopolitical uncertainties. While there are early signs of a potential truce, the outcome of these peace talks cannot be predicted with certainty. If one waits for a complete cessation of hostilities before acting, current price levels may no longer be available. It is therefore prudent to begin deploying capital into markets where stocks have corrected sufficiently, and valuations offer an adequate margin of safety. A reasonable strategy would be to deploy at least 25% of the capital you have been holding in reserve for the right opportunity. That opportunity is now — the time has come to begin taking measured risks.