Despite a significant selloff following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global emerging market equities have demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience. What explains this contained drawdown, and how should investors differentiate across regions even as volatility persists?

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:11) - Current resilience of emerging markets
• (01:59) - Earnings revisions and relative performance
• (03:18) - Market sensitivity and the nature of the drawdown
• (04:23) - Energy costs and financial conditions
• (06:16) - Monetary policy impact and US dollar outlook
• (07:00) - AI as a growth driver in emerging markets
• (07:30) - Outlook for EM equities
• (09:14) - Closing remarks and legal information

In his highly anticipated address to the nation, President Trump dashed hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict with Iran, announcing that the US would ‘hit Iran very hard’ in the coming weeks. Markets reacted immediately: stocks reversed earlier gains, government bond yields rose, and oil prices and the US dollar moved sharply higher on the news. In this episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on the increasingly concerning developments in the aluminium market - and what these dynamics could mean for the market in the weeks ahead.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (06:29) - Aluminium: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (09:46) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Global markets showed signs of recovery yesterday after a highly volatile March, with European equities stabilising and US indices staging an impressive rally. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on sentiment, fuelling higher energy prices and pushing Eurozone inflation above the ECB’s target. Asian markets opened April on a strong footing, led by a sharp surge in Japanese and South Korean equities. Today we’re joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, to explore the latest developments in corporate credit markets and explain the headlines in private credit. We also welcome Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who discusses how equity markets are reacting to the ongoing geopolitical situation and offers a deep dive into emerging market equities.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (07:13) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
• (11:26) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
• (16:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Despite strong German inflation, global bond yields fell as markets shifted from inflation concerns to weakening growth signals. Soft Swiss KOF and Eurozone confidence data reinforced this move, pushing investors into bonds. Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has limited influence over supply‑driven price spikes, reducing expectations of imminent US rate increases. In equities, Europe held up, while US markets weakened as sentiment stayed fragile, oil prices stayed high, and volatility persisted after a month of war. Gold is recovering, up nearly 10% from last week’s low. Overall, traders point to cleaner positioning, weak sentiment after a sharp global equity drop and a bond‑yield spike this month, and quarter‑end flows as key drivers of market moves at the end of the month. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research highlights a promising outlook for healthcare, driven by better diagnostics and AI‑enabled drug discovery.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:24) - Future Health: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research
• (12:55) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Risk-off sentiment dominated the end of last week, with the S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Markets remained broadly cautious amid scepticism about any near-term geopolitical de-escalation after several days of headline-driven volatility. Concerns over a prolonged conflict and the risk of spillover effects on inflation and demand as a result of higher oil prices continued to weigh on sentiment. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, highlights why lower oil prices are critical for equity markets and what it implies now that the S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day moving average.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (01:00) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (06:17) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (09:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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As the war in the Middle East continues, energy markets are still at the centre of investors’ attention. How resilient are global oil and gas flows, and what are the possible scenarios as the situation evolves?

In this episode Helen Freer is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy markets and investors. The conversation covers the current level of oil supply disruptions, the effectiveness of alternative trade routes, the role of storage buffers, and the potential for lasting structural changes in global energy markets. Norbert outlines the key scenarios for the months ahead, the economic risks at play, and what investors should keep in mind as uncertainty persists.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (00:49) - Crisis dynamics and early surprises
• (02:01) - The Strait of Hormuz situation
• (03:03) - How oil is moving around the disruption
• (04:00) - The role and limits of oil in storage
• (05:21) - Energy infrastructure
• (06:41) - Economic implications
• (07:58) - Could the conflict drive lasting structural changes?
• (09:36) - Central banks and policy response
• (10:54) - Scenarios analysis
• (14:55) - Key takeaways for investors
• (15:45) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

Markets saw another sharp risk‑off move yesterday as fears of escalation in the Iran war pushed investors out of everything except oil. Inflation worries strengthened after the OECD raised its US forecast, while growth concerns deepened in Europe, where data points to a weak start to 2026. Corporate news added pressure, with technology stocks hit by Meta’s legal setbacks and renewed doubts about memory‑chip demand. Asian markets steadied after the US extended its deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s power plant infrastructure, though geopolitical risks remain high. Key releases today include Spain’s inflation data, BYD’s earnings, and US consumer sentiment figures. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the recent sharp moves in bond yields and what it means for investors amid an uncertain war trajectory.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (05:54) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
• (09:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global equities rose on Wednesday as hopes of a path to peace in the Middle East and lower oil prices lifted sentiment. The MSCI World Index gained nearly 1%, its best performance since 9 February, and bond yields eased sharply. Beneath the positive market tone, economic surveys from Switzerland and Germany pointed to weakening confidence. Company news was mixed: Arm Holdings rallied on progress in AI hardware, while Meta and YouTube lost a landmark social‑media addiction case. In Asia, sentiment reversed as oil rebounded and memory stocks weakened after Google flagged an LLM compression method that could cut memory use. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that aluminium prices have fallen back after an initial spike following the outbreak of the Iran war, despite the region’s central role in the market.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:45) - Aluminium: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (10:05) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content