The US and Iran have agreed to a two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, but the deal continues to look fragile. Markets have reacted swiftly, with crude oil prices falling sharply while gold and equity markets rebounded. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping energy supply risks firmly in focus. In this complex backdrop, how attractive is the current market risk‑reward, and how might the geopolitical landscape evolve from here?

Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, to assess the implications for global markets and China. They discuss whether investors should chase the recent rebound or stay defensive, the outlook for oil, gold, and the US dollar, and why China’s equity market has shown relative resilience. The conversation also covers China’s economic momentum, sector preferences, and the role of defensive, value, and high‑dividend stocks -- particularly Chinese banks -- in navigating ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty.

This episode was recorded on 9 April, 2026.

• (00:00) - A fragile ceasefire and the market rebound
• (02:00) - Assessing the market risk-reward, geopolitical landscape
• (04:44) - Has the USD/gold long-term trend changed?
• (09:22) - How vulnerable is China to high oil prices?
• (14:58) - Green shoots in China’s economy – signal or seasonal?
• (19:05) - China’s consumption sector – staples vs discretionary
• (24:02) - Views on Chinese banks

Equity markets are trading higher amid renewed optimism that the ceasefire will hold, reinforced by Israel’s signal that it is ready to enter direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rebound following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Investors’ focus now turns to today’s US CPI data for March. In this episode, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his perspective on what lies ahead for the US dollar.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (06:45) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions
• (10:00) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

The last 24 hours were a game of two halves for equity markets – Europe and the US rallied as they celebrated the Middle East ceasefire and crude oil ended Wednesday 16% lower. But then the cracks in the terms of the ceasefire appeared – Israel attacked Lebanon, which Iran said breached the agreement, and Iran claimed that it has the right to enrich uranium, which the US says it does not. And so, oil rose again and Asian equity markets fell. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the podcast today to unravel the reaction of commodity markets to the ongoing situation. He explains how the ceasefire fits into a pattern in which extreme price spikes trigger both behavioural and political responses, and that markets respond in a monochrome fashion. Tune in to find out more about the possible shades of grey that need consideration.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (05:38) - Reaction of commodities to ceasefire: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (10:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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