Chinese investment crashed yet again in November, the second straight month of bigtime declines. Only this time FAI was joined by consumer spending. Retail sales over in China also crashed last month, dropping by almost half a percent in November alone. That’s enormous. It follows terrible data on household lending and bank credit. All of it points to an increasingly familiar topic and condition: China big economic slide is sliding right onto flat Beveridge.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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EDU's Webinar Series
Thursday December 17, 6pm ET

A Trillion-Dollar Eurodollar Bomb is going Off on Wall Street

The most important funding system in the world is flashing warning signals, and almost no one is paying attention.
https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/risks
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If you’re a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, join me at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To get your spot, just go here:

https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page
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Bloomberg China’s Labor Market Distress Spreads at Worst Time for Deflation Fight
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-22/china-s-labor-distress-spreads-at-worst-time-for-deflation-fight

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

So, Jay Powell just casually strolled to the podium at his press conference last week and announced the Fed now believes the US has been losing jobs at a rate of 20,000 per month. From strong and resilient to solid to, ah, so what we’re now shedding jobs by the tens of thousands per month. Do you see it yet? The Treasury curve does, which is why it is moving into its final form in this long un-inversion process, with the big moves taking shape and doing most of the reshaping right in Chair Powell’s conference room.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU's Webinar Series
Thursday December 17, 6pm ET

A Trillion-Dollar Eurodollar Bomb is going Off on Wall Street

The most important funding system in the world is flashing warning signals, and almost no one is paying attention.
https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/risks
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------
If you’re a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, join me at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To get your spot, just go here:

https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page
------------------------------------------------------------

NBER Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity
https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-december-1-2008

FOMC Press Conference, December 10, 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ko-_yb2UkDk
Transcript
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251210.pdf

Bloomberg Fed’s Goolsbee Says He Sees More Cuts Than Most Others Next Year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-12/fed-s-goolsbee-cites-need-for-more-data-in-dissent-against-cut

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

IBM’s CEO said there is “no way” that the massive spending on AI and data centers will ever pay off. For the first time in this bubble cycle people are finally wondering if maybe he is right. It couldn’t have come at a more critical time in light of Oracle’s shocking results. And then Broadcom failed to live up to the hype. In many ways, AI is the last pillar holding the forgot how to grow economy together, from both investments and stock-fueled consumer spending.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU's Webinar Series
Thursday December 17, 6pm ET

A Trillion-Dollar Eurodollar Bomb is going Off on Wall Street

The most important funding system in the world is flashing warning signals, and almost no one is paying attention.
https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/risks
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------
If you’re a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, join me at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To get your spot, just go here:

https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page
------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU