China's yield curve is being reshaped in a way that has created confusion across the spectrum. Even policymakers at the PBOC are talking about the need to do something. However, market behavior is consistent with what we're seeing around the rest of the world and how it all relates to China finding a way out of its mess and hitting upon a real recovery.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Bloomberg China Bond Slump Fuels Speculation PBOC Will Resume Debt Buying
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-14/china-bond-slump-fuels-speculation-pboc-will-resume-debt-buying

Reuters Chinese money flows into bonds even as central bank warns of risks
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinese-money-flows-into-bonds-even-central-bank-warns-risks-2024-06-27/

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For the first time ever, French bond spreads are higher than those seen in Italy (both compared to Germany). This isn't just about "fiscal consolidation" worries and France's government budget, the real issue behind everything is economic differentials. Those need to be turned around and soon else France risks being the new, well, Italy.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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NYT French Government Collapses, Again, Deepening Paralysis
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/world/europe/france-vote-government-collapse.html

CNBC France’s Macron names loyalist Lecornu as new prime minister
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/france-macron-names-lecornu-new-prime-minister.html

CNBC France’s borrowing costs rise after Fitch downgrade — and there could be more bad news ahead
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/frances-borrowing-costs-rise-after-fitch-downgrade-.html

Bloomberg French Borrowing Costs Top Italy’s in Historic Market Shift
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/french-borrowing-costs-top-italy-s-in-historic-market-shift

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The oil business is heading for a big bust, putting Texas in the crosshairs. While that's obviously not good for the economy as a whole, energy does tend to be a leading indicators and when the jobs starting being lost in the space in a big way it's a big red flag. Consumers know it, given what was also just reported from them, too.

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU