HP becomes the latest big name to announce major layoffs, said to be around 6000 more white collar jobs. It’s getting to the point where despite all the mainstream and social media attention, call it fixation, on the tariff inflation faction at the Fed, the latest economic update from the central bank has almost nothing in it about that. Instead, it’s cover-to-cover with worries about HP, Amazon, and all the smaller businesses we never hear about who nonetheless are finding themselves on the same part of the flat Beveridge curve.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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China sold a record amount of Treasuries last quarter, which is actually more confirmation of the monetary tightening story over the summer which is now spilling out into the mainstream in the form of elevated repo rates, SOFR, and repo borrowing from the Fed. At the same time and for very much related reasons, private foreign counterparties were buying huge amounts of, yes, US Treasuries. There was no rejection at all, quite the contrary all of it pointing to growing expectations for the fallout from flat Beveridge.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Eurodollar University's EARLY BLACK FRIDAY SALE
Get our DDA+ subscription including the DDA, a membership, and the Daily Briefing for one ultra-low price. Not only that, we'll also include the Substack One Big Weekly Theme subscription to. Huge value and huge savings.
https://https://www.eurodollar.university/black-friday-2025
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https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Repo. It’s back. Or more accurately, never really left. When we last left off with it, things were calming down which is not unusual in these circumstances. That didn’t mean it was a one-time, one-off matter, just that in the middle of the month there isn’t a whole lot going on. But now with the Thanksgiving holiday here and December approaching, repo rates are up, borrowing from the Fed is back, and in related developments the hedge fund-private credit world is getting spicier.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Eurodollar University's EARLY BLACK FRIDAY SALE
Get our DDA+ subscription including the DDA, a membership, and the Daily Briefing for one ultra-low price. Not only that, we'll also include the Substack One Big Weekly Theme subscription to. Huge value and huge savings.
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Bloomberg UBS Boss Is Right on Private Credit Rating Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-11-06/ubs-boss-scores-one-for-banks-over-private-credit

BIS The transformation of the life insurance industry: systemic risks and policy challenges
https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap161.htm

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU