Asia is suddenly awash in deflation. Japan is now experiencing it. And while not necessarily new for China, the acceleration downward to producer prices hints at deterioration in demand, overseas as well as locally. It's become a big enough change the government in Beijing crucially appears to shifting its own economic focus, a potentially profound worldwide signal. Oh, and Jamie Dimon.

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre

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The country's top bank regulators have proposed a major change to the banking rules. Some say this is like a stealth QE, everyone else appears equally confused. We'll get into what the new changes mean. More important, where these various ratios came from and why bank they are so hyped when they really shouldn't be.

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A July rate cut is far from off the table. In addition to the macroeconomic evidence, the FOMC minutes from last month’s meeting make clear there really isn’t some divide among policymakers. In fact, the text leaves the distinct impression officials really don’t want to a repeat of last year.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Amazon Prime Days have been doubled to four, simply confirming just how this year really is different for the consumer economy. It is merely the latest to testify for highly unusual weakness. Along with a sharp drop in credit card usage, the historically unusual decline in weekly worker earnings show exactly why there are four Prime Days this year.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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NBC News Amazon extends Prime Day discounts to 4 days as retailers weigh tariffs and price increases
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/amazon-extends-prime-day-discounts-4-days-retailers-weigh-tariffs-pric-rcna217510

Bloomberg Amazon Sellers Curb Prime Day Discounts With Tariffs Taking Bite
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/amazon-sellers-curb-prime-day-discounts-with-tariffs-taking-bite

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This wasn't supposed to happen. In fact, many said it was impossible up to and including central bank officials at the Federal Reserve. Yet, one of them, the head of the all-important New York branch, just released a report which say the market is taking ZIRP possibilities very seriously - and so should those at the highest levels of the Fed.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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FRBNY Liberty Street Blog The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium‑Term Risk
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/07/the-zero-lower-bound-remains-a-medium-term-risk/

FOMC Transcript March 2007
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20070321meeting.pdf

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The world is supposed to be all over the "sell America" trade, so why is it only this one key currency is? The thing is now sticking out like a sore thumb as more and more pile onto "sell America" here without any corroboration at all. Even FX modelers are confused by this insistence. What happens when everyone is on one side of a transaction under false assumptions? It converges. Sometimes violently.

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Bloomberg Misfiring Models Leave Wall Street Currency Traders Flying Blind
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-07/misfiring-models-leave-wall-street-currency-traders-flying-blind

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Is this the payback? The rate cuts aren't working and that can only mean more of them. The best current examples are to north and south of the US where rolling over has taken on a new sense of urgency, especially since both are, at the margins, a proxy for American demand.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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It was supposed to be one single out-of-control Wall Street bank. When authorities were forced to look into the matter, what they uncovered was a shocking. Not one but EVERYONE. Yet, after uncovering what was going on, the full astonishing scale, they never figured out WHY. And that was the whole thing, what the scandal said about a world that had already drastically changed.

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Treasury Joint Report on the Government Securities Market (Jan 1992)
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/276/joint-report-on-the-government-securities-Market-1992.pdf

LA Times Taming the Bond Buccaneers at Salomon Brothers : How Warren Buffet and friends swept up after the Salomon scandal, possible saving the firm from federal regulators furious after a decade of skuldggery [sic] on Wall Street.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-02-16-tm-4654-story.html

SEC Chronology of Salomon Scandal
https://www.sechistorical.org/collection/papers/1990/1991_1016_ChronologySalomonT.pdf

Jay Powell Treasury Markets and the TMPG (Oct 2017)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20171005a.htm

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