If you were to go off of only data collected by the Federal Reserve on the economy, you'd be left with no other option than to see it at best on the doorstep of full-blown recession. Yet, officials argue inflation anyway. The real question is where all this information and evidence instead fits the "labor curve." Unfortunately, the Fed's numbers all fall on flat.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Fed Beige Book April 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdf

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504#tab-report

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While other airlines were pulling their forecasts afraid to tell the truth and preferring to hide under behind "uncertainty", Southwest's CEO bluntly stated there's a recession. And that's exactly what is starting to emerge from the Federal Reserve's very own contacts, thus why former FOMC hawks are now sounding incredibly dovish, the fundamentals of interest rates in all directions.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Bloomberg Southwest CEO Says US Airline Industry Is Already in a Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/southwest-ceo-says-us-airline-industry-is-already-in-a-recession

Fed Beige Book April 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdf

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Weakness in key Asian bellwether has authorities there panicking into bailouts, setting its central on course to be the next major to head into "historically" low interest rates. That's not all, there's already spillover from the tariff shock in China where reports show work stoppages and factory closings. And rates there are right back near record lows.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

ChosunBiz South Korea's economy faces 0.2% GDP decline amid tariff and political turmoil
https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/04/24/O6H63WLPC5BHDE3HUEYUTF6UUM

South Korea Ministerial Meeting on Economic Affairs and Ministerial Meeting on Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness (Apr.15, 2025)
https://english.moef.go.kr/pc/selectTbPressCenterDtl.do;jsessionid=ngE3YYBKCpQ6L--F1ty-I76Sl7rjfIGh94TDtjlr.node20?boardCd=N0001&seq=6146

FT Chinese factories slow production and send workers home as US tariffs bite
https://www.ft.com/content/d5784258-4de3-44a1-94ae-6f763857b034

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Walmart isn't sitting on tariffs. They instead rolling back more prices understanding what Chipotle just found out the hard way. The burrito bowl restaurant reported its first sales decline since the lockdowns, and the reason why has everyone from airlines to Walmart scrambling.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Walmart Amps Up Discounts as Rivals Weigh Tariff-Driven Hikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/walmart-amps-up-discounts-to-lure-cost-conscious-customers

Bloomberg Walmart Keeps Price Pressure on Suppliers After Beijing Pushback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/walmart-keeps-price-pressure-on-suppliers-after-beijing-pushback

CNBC Chipotle is seeing a ‘slowdown’ in consumer spending as 2025 gets off to a rough start
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-q1-2025-earnings.html

Bloomberg American Air Is Latest US Carrier to Give Up on 2025 Forecast
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/american-air-aal-pulls-full-year-outlook-on-soft-travel-demand-worry

Bloomberg United Airlines Is So Unsure About the Economy It Offers Two Profit Scenarios
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/united-air-flags-recessionary-risk-while-keeping-profit-target

CNBC Alaska Airlines warns of slower demand as second-quarter profit outlook falls short
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/alaska-air-alk-1q-2025-earnings.html

SPG Composite PMI flash April 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/9ee36c52b8a649adada211c1842512be

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While the whole world seems convinced the rest of it is rotating away from Treasuries, the actual evidence unequivocally shows something very different. This isn't a one-time relationship, either. Instead, a deep fundamental basis that connects repo, interest rates foundations, global banks, and the recent deflationary developments.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Traders View Treasury Auctions as Litmus Test for Foreign Buyers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/us-treasury-auctions-offer-latest-clues-on-foreign-buyers-strike

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Another day, another major warning this time once again from the Swiss. This one is a critical dollar signal. Even though the mainstream gets it completely backward, that diminish the significance of the surge. Plus, it is being corroborated by others along with changes to macro interpretations even among official bodies like the IMF.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

SNB's Martin Schlegel December 12, 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-12-12/snb-s-schlegel-on-interest-rate-decision-negative-rates

IMF WEO April 2025
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025

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We're moving out of the theoretical impacts from tariffs and global weakness and into the reality of the situation. The first data from April is coming in from a variety of sources. China is seeing major reactions, as did South Korea. Hardly being spared, the response in Philly manufacturing was near-historic. Here comes the data for all those dependent.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC Trade war fallout: Cancellations of Chinese freight ships begin as bookings plummet
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/trade-war-fallout-china-freight-ship-decline-begins-orders-plummet.html

Bloomberg Shrinking Korea Exports Send Global Warning on Trump Tariffs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-21/south-korea-s-early-trade-data-show-exports-shrank-after-tariffs

Hankyoreh BOK warns of negative economic growth in Q1, hinting at another downgrade in May
https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_business/1193165.html

Conference Board March 2025 LEI
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators

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Foreign governments are selling large quantities of Treasury securities, including the Chinese. Several commentators have therefore suggested there is a growing probability China devalues the yuan. While all of these results and possibilities are indeed related, not all foreigners are selling dollar assets. According to the same data, this group has been a buying hand over fist.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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