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How to Expect the Unexpected
- The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To
- Narrated by: Kit Yates
- Length: 11 hrs and 41 mins
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Publisher's summary
A fascinating exploration of how we can make better, accessible, mathematically-informed predictions about the world around us.
- Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball?
- Is winning the National Lottery not once, but twice really as unlikely as it sounds?
- Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting?
- How do you prevent a nuclear war?
Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?).
For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.
How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 983
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Story4 out of 5 stars 979
Hilarious, fascinating, and a roller coaster of dizzying, historical what-ifs, Napoleon's Hemorrhoids is a potpourri for serious historians and casual history buffs. In one of Phil Mason's many revelations, you'll learn that Communist jets were two minutes away from opening fire on American planes during the Cuban missile crisis, when they had to turn back as they were running out of fuel. You'll discover that before the Battle of Waterloo, Napoleon's painful hemorrhoids prevented him from mounting his horse to survey the battlefield.
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3 out of 5 stars
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They just throw the facts too fast
- By Concerned_llama on 12-11-20
By: Phil Mason
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The Selfish Gene
- By: Richard Dawkins
- Narrated by: Richard Dawkins, Lalla Ward
- Length: 16 hrs and 12 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 8,867
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 7,496
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 7,418
Richard Dawkins' brilliant reformulation of the theory of natural selection has the rare distinction of having provoked as much excitement and interest outside the scientific community as within it. His theories have helped change the whole nature of the study of social biology, and have forced thousands to rethink their beliefs about life.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Better than print!
- By J. D. May on 07-31-12
By: Richard Dawkins
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Inspired
- How to Create Tech Products Customers Love, Second Edition
- By: Marty Cagan
- Narrated by: Marty Cagan
- Length: 7 hrs and 45 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 2,631
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 2,142
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 2,116
How do today's most successful tech companies - Amazon, Google, Facebook, Netflix, Tesla - design, develop, and deploy the products that have earned the love of literally billions of people around the world? Perhaps surprisingly, they do it very differently from the vast majority of tech companies. In Inspired, technology product management thought leader Marty Cagan provides listeners with a master class in how to structure and staff a vibrant and successful product organization and how to discover and deliver technology products that your customers will love.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Great book, terrible audio wanted to ask a refund
- By Srikanth Ramanujam on 11-15-18
By: Marty Cagan
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Bernoulli's Fallacy
- Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
- By: Aubrey Clayton
- Narrated by: Tim H. Dixon
- Length: 15 hrs and 14 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 108
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 95
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 95
Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the 17th-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Rigorously Bayesian
- By Anonymous User on 01-25-22
By: Aubrey Clayton
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Gut
- The Inside Story of Our Body's Most Underrated Organ
- By: Giulia Enders
- Narrated by: Katy Sobey
- Length: 7 hrs and 26 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 4,603
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 4,017
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 3,974
Our gut is almost as important to us as our brain, yet we know very little about how it works. Gut: The Inside Story is an entertaining, informative tour of the digestive system from the moment we raise a tasty morsel to our lips until the moment our body surrenders the remnants to the toilet bowl. No topic is too lowly for the author's wonder and admiration, from the careful choreography of breaking wind to the precise internal communication required for a cleansing vomit.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Doctors opinion
- By KevinMcVeigh on 03-02-17
By: Giulia Enders
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Chemistry and Our Universe
- How It All Works
- By: Ron B. Davis, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Ron B. Davis
- Length: 30 hrs and 6 mins
- Original Recording
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 503
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 398
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 394
Chemistry and Our Universe: How It All Works is your in-depth introduction to this vital field, taught through 60 engaging half-hour lectures that are suitable for any background or none at all. Covering a year’s worth of introductory general chemistry at the college level, plus intriguing topics that are rarely discussed in the classroom, this amazingly comprehensive course requires nothing more advanced than high-school math. Your guide is Professor Ron B. Davis, Jr., a research chemist and award-winning teacher at Georgetown University.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Great Professor, Hard to Follow.
- By Jen on 05-14-19
By: Ron B. Davis, and others
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Your Brain Is a Time Machine
- The Neuroscience and Physics of Time
- By: Dean Buonomano
- Narrated by: Aaron Abano
- Length: 8 hrs and 51 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 550
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 446
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 446
In Your Brain Is a Time Machine, brain researcher and best-selling author Dean Buonomano draws on evolutionary biology, physics, and philosophy to present his influential theory of how we tell and perceive time. The human brain, he argues, is a complex system that not only tells time but creates it; it constructs our sense of chronological flow and enables "mental time travel" - simulations of future and past events.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Great book on an underrated subject
- By Neuron on 05-09-17
By: Dean Buonomano
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The Theory of Everything: The Quest to Explain All Reality
- By: Don Lincoln, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Don Lincoln
- Length: 12 hrs and 21 mins
- Original Recording
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 1,622
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 1,430
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 1,428
At the end of his career, Albert Einstein was pursuing a dream far more ambitious than the theory of relativity. He was trying to find an equation that explained all physical reality - a theory of everything. Experimental physicist and award-winning educator Dr. Don Lincoln takes you on this exciting journey in The Theory of Everything: The Quest to Explain All Reality. Suitable for the intellectually curious at all levels and assuming no background beyond basic high-school math, these 24 half-hour lectures cover recent developments at the forefront of particle physics and cosmology.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Audible’s Best Science Offering, A Gem
- By MikeB on 12-08-18
By: Don Lincoln, and others
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Consciousness Explained
- By: Daniel C. Dennett
- Narrated by: Paul Mantell
- Length: 21 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 509
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 440
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 431
The national bestseller chosen by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 1991 is now available as an audiobook. The author of Brainstorms, Daniel C. Dennett replaces our traditional vision of consciousness with a new model based on a wealth of fact and theory from the latest scientific research.
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2 out of 5 stars
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Confuses Consciousness with Ego
- By Rahul Yadav on 07-11-19
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Mother of God
- An Extraordinary Journey into the Uncharted Tributaries of the Western Amazon
- By: Paul Rosolie
- Narrated by: Jonathan Yen
- Length: 11 hrs and 27 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 328
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 294
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 296
For fans of The Lost City of Z, Walking the Amazon, and Turn Right at Machu Picchu comes naturalist and explorer Paul Rosolie’s extraordinary adventure in the uncharted tributaries of the Western Amazon - a tale of discovery that vividly captures the awe, beauty, and isolation of this endangered land and presents an impassioned call to save it.
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1 out of 5 stars
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This whole book is B.S.
- By bob fields on 09-30-18
By: Paul Rosolie
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Storytelling with Data
- A Data Visualization Guide for Business Professionals
- By: Cole Nussbaumer Knaflic
- Narrated by: Cole Nussbaumer Knaflic
- Length: 5 hrs and 43 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 409
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 350
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 347
Storytelling with Data teaches you the fundamentals of data visualization and how to communicate effectively with data. You'll discover the power of storytelling and the way to make data a pivotal point in your story. The lessons in this illuminative text are grounded in theory but made accessible through numerous real-world examples - ready for immediate application to your next graph or presentation.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Very insightful and actionable
- By Amazon Customer on 04-27-18
What listeners say about How to Expect the Unexpected
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Adam Richardson
- 07-08-23
Brilliant
This is off the scale fantastic. The information in this book is worth so much to my clinical reasoning as a Physio.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- bean481
- 07-11-23
Gripping, even on 2nd listening!
Yates describes so many laws, biases, and effects I needed to listen a second time to get a fuller grasp of his thesis. His illustrations (both personal and international) served to ground his concepts in easily graspable terms.
I look forward to a third and subsequent listen to refresh and cement his suggestions.
Huge thanks to the doctor!!!
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