Episodios

  • WSJ Aug 6 Deep Dive: Is Trump Manipulating Economic Data?
    Aug 6 2025

    Fed Governor resigns early, BLS chief fired after July services PMI drops to 50.1. Palantir revenue hits $1B with 600% stock surge, GLP-1 drugs fall to $499/month, 10M children in poverty. Tariff threats reach 250%, Caterpillar faces $1.5B loss. New Rochelle housing model limits rent growth to 1.6%.

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    5 m
  • AI vs Profits: Goldman Exposes Tech Titans' Strategic Gamble
    Aug 6 2025

    Goldman Sachs' August 6 bombshell report exposes China's internet giants facing their biggest profit crisis since Q2 2022, with sector-wide earnings down 10% while AI cloud services surge 23%. The Big Three—Alibaba, Meituan, JD—are hemorrhaging profits (16%-70% decline) as they pour 30B+ yuan into instant delivery warfare. Tencent emerges victorious with 15% profit growth fueled by Delta Force's 9B yuan blockbuster and AI innovations. Market dynamics shift from duopoly dominance to three-way battle as competition intensity peaks in September quarter.

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    5 m
  • Can Copper Spread Recover After 30% Crash? BofA Unveils Global Arbitrage Play
    Aug 5 2025

    BofA Securities August report exposes copper tariff turmoil: CME-LME spread collapsed from record 30% to zero in single day as US stockpiled 600kt (40% annual demand). Report identifies LME-CME spread as strongest mean-reversion relationship outside energy pairs. Recommends overweight gasoline, soymeal, precious metals while underweight WTI crude. 16% effective tariff rate reinforces stagflation risks with 6-month positive outlook for Brent and industrial metals.

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    6 m
  • Developer Stocks Crash 6%!Goldman Aug Report Unveils Property Market's Triple Threat
    Aug 5 2025

    Goldman's Aug 5 weekly shows China's Week 31 developer stocks tumbled 6% to historic 0.5x P/B lows with 33% NAV discount. Inventory clearance needs 25.9 months while Politburo omitted stimulus becomes key variable. Tier-1 cities' 6% WoW sales growth shows resilience vs central/western -6% decline deepening divergence. CIFI bucked trend with -1% drop earning buy rating.

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    5 m
  • WSJ Aug 5 Analysis: AI Boom's Cash Flow Crisis & Data Credibility Collapse
    Aug 5 2025

    U.S. employment data credibility faces political threats while Big Tech AI investments drive 73% profit growth but 30% free cash flow decline. Musk receives $23.7B compensation package amid tariff uncertainty hampering corporate investments. Academic "paper mills" threaten research integrity as Gen Z workplace anxiety intensifies. Colorectal cancer screening age lowered to 45, boosting early detection by 62%.

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    5 m
  • Conglomerate Evolution or Breakup? Goldman's August Pick on Jardine's Transformation Path
    Aug 4 2025

    Goldman Sachs released August APAC Conviction List update on Aug 3, adding Jardine Matheson and Namura Shipbuilding. Jardine targets $68.10 with 21.7% upside, 38% NAV discount offers revaluation opportunity. PAG partner Lincoln Pan appointment drives portfolio review, expecting 15%/9% earnings growth in FY25/26. Namura targets ¥3,700 with 18.8% upside, benefiting from geopolitical reshaping and US tariffs on China shipbuilding, Japan's market share rising from 10% to 13%. Goldman upgrades capital goods, tech hardware to overweight, favors North Asia with six alpha themes.

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    5 m
  • Fed's Immigration Theory Wrong? UBS Exposes Economic Truth
    Aug 4 2025

    UBS latest report challenges Fed Chair Powell's "immigration shock" narrative on US economic slowdown. Data reveals weakness stems from demand shortfall, not population decline, with GDP growth at mere 1.2% annualized and unemployment rising to 4.25%. New tariffs expected to push core PCE inflation to 3.4% while dragging growth by 0.1-0.2pp. UBS forecasts Fed will cut rates 25bps in September, totaling 100bps by year-end.

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    6 m
  • WSJ Digest Aug 4: AI Upends Consulting, Tariffs Disrupt Trade
    Aug 4 2025

    This edition highlights five key trends: (1) Despite a low 4.2% unemployment rate, long-term joblessness hits a multi-year high; (2) A sudden M&A boom sees mega-deals flourish amid political tailwinds; (3) AI radically transforms McKinsey’s operations, triggering layoffs and new work models; (4) The US shocks Switzerland with a 39% tariff, fueling global trade uncertainty; (5) Earnings from giants like Berkshire and Boeing reveal profit strain and operational restructuring.

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    5 m