Fed's Immigration Theory Wrong? UBS Exposes Economic Truth

UBS latest report challenges Fed Chair Powell's "immigration shock" narrative on US economic slowdown. Data reveals weakness stems from demand shortfall, not population decline, with GDP growth at mere 1.2% annualized and unemployment rising to 4.25%. New tariffs expected to push core PCE inflation to 3.4% while dragging growth by 0.1-0.2pp. UBS forecasts Fed will cut rates 25bps in September, totaling 100bps by year-end.