After a long hiatus, one of the people's most popular guests returns. Randy Baron ventures across the pond to talk about Victoria PLC. Victoria has run into hard times, driven by a bunch of debt and a vicious cyclical downturn, but Randy sees some light at the end of the tunnel and goes into all the ways the company can survive the downturn and the huge potential upside for the common stock if he's right.

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[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:01:59] Reintroducing guest Randy Barron

[00:02:43] Company overview: Victoria PLC

[00:05:16] Stock down 95%, what happened

[00:09:58] Audit issue worsens perception

[00:11:58] UK flooring market fragmentation

[00:15:23] Headlam distress affects Victoria

[00:16:40] Business story vs. distressed debt

[00:19:44] Victoria's debt breakdown

[00:21:04] Coke preferred equity explained

[00:25:54] Coke takeover rules in UK

[00:28:16] Preferred overhang and resolution

[00:30:22] Stock impact from deal structure

[00:33:02] Coke debt buyout possibility

[00:34:07] Cyclical vs. structural downturn

[00:36:36] Housing slowdown impacts demand

[00:37:32] 2028 bonds trade at heavy discount

[00:41:48] Asset sales to pay down debt

[00:43:01] Jeff Wilding's role and strategy

[00:47:28] Chairman’s capital allocation record

[00:48:01] Assessing market misjudgment

[00:50:19] UK market investment case

[00:51:46] UK stamp tax impact

[00:52:19] Making UK more investible

[00:54:38] Macro vs. valuation gap in UK

[00:55:16] Downside risk and cash flow

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Judd Arnold from Lake Cornelia Capital joins for a wide ranging discussion of inflection investing, $TOI's unique oncology model, and tons of stuff on risk management and portfolio construction.See Lake Cornelia's Substack here: https://lakecornelia.substack.com/

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[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest announcement

[00:02:41] Judd on becoming a father

[00:03:40] Judd discusses launching Substack

[00:06:30] Complexity versus simplicity in investing

[00:07:52] Liquidity and investor interest matter

[00:11:06] Inflection investing over valuation focus

[00:15:59] Sector and story versus fundamentals

[00:19:55] TOI scalability and market potential

[00:25:26] TOI business model and economics

[00:31:32] Comparisons with other healthcare models

[00:39:31] Consulting impact on investment process

[00:44:21] Sizing up at inflection points

[00:50:48] Risk profiles in portfolio strategy

[00:53:20] M&A strategy and market perceptions

[00:57:35] Netflix synergies and investor worries

[01:01:45] Warner Bros bidding strategy discussion

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Host Andrew Walker delivers his monthly random ramblings for December 2025, reflecting on a decade of "professional public-market investing". Andrew shares a developing thesis on why markets are becoming increasingly strange, drawing parallels to evolution in sports, chess, and technology. He examines how efficiency, quant strategies, leverage, and speculative behavior have reshaped market dynamics. Andrew also walks through several investing beliefs he’s changed his mind on over the past ten years, including valuation metrics, buybacks, real estate, technical analysis, and holding periods. He closes by reflecting on lessons learned from podcast guests, risk-taking, arrogance, and the role of luck versus skill in generating outsized returns.

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[00:00:00] Episode introduction

[00:02:19] Monthly solo rambling format

[00:04:14] Ten-year investing reflection

[00:04:59] Markets growing increasingly strange

[00:05:20] Sports and strategy analogy

[00:06:45] Market efficiency reaching extremes

[00:07:34] Weird situations driving returns

[00:09:38] Changing minds over decade

[00:10:31] Pure valuation metrics questioned

[00:11:36] Buybacks losing importance

[00:13:39] Hidden real estate disappointments

[00:15:13] Technical analysis partial acceptance

[00:16:19] Rethinking long-term holding

[00:18:25] Three-year reevaluation rule

[00:19:31] Risk management maturation

[00:22:12] Podcast shaping investor thinking

[00:24:14] Luck versus skill debate

[00:26:31] Media deal commentary critique[

00:28:45] Looking ahead next decade

[00:29:38] Holiday wishes and closing

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/