Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode from Crisis Group's global podcast, Hold Your Fire!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, about progress in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks, U.S. involvement and shifting regional politics. They discuss U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s recent visit to Yerevan and Baku, why Washington got involved and U.S. efforts to broker agreement on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) – a proposed transit corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia. They talk about whether the corridor could move forward even without a fully ratified peace deal and examine the remaining sticking points. They also assess Türkiye’s expanding role in the region, Iran’s concerns about the corridor, Russia’s waning influence and European policy. They examine why the Trump administration’s peacemaking appears to have been more successful in the South Caucasus than elsewhere.

For more, check out Joshua’s recent Analyst’s Notebook, “Vance Visit Reaffirms U.S. Push to End Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict” and our Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Alissa are joined by Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, to discuss how European capitals are reacting to recent U.S. actions in Venezuela and the Trump administration’s aggressive rhetoric over Greenland, and how EU and NATO member states can navigate an increasingly strained transatlantic relationship. They explore how European governments may rethink security in order to reduce dependence on the U.S. as Washington increasingly disregards international norms and even threatens the territorial integrity of an ally. Finally, they consider how regional states can meaningfully approach multilateralism as the global order continues to shift rapidly.

This episode was made possible through extra-budgetary funding from the OSCE. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the OSCE.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Alissa de Carbonnel are joined by Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for the South Caucasus, to discuss the increasingly difficult situation facing people displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia after Azerbaijan regained control of the territory in a rapid 2023 offensive. They unpack the refugees’ mounting challenges–from insecure housing after cuts to government assistance to discrimination–and their growing frustration with Armenia’s government. They also examine the role refugees from Karabakh might play in Armenia’s 2026 elections and peace efforts with Azerbaijan, their hopes of return, and what the EU can do to help Yerevan respond.

For more, check out our Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict and Europe & Central Asia pages.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Elissa and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel are joined by Sabine Freizer Gunes, UN Women representative for Ukraine, about how the war in Ukraine has shaped and amplified gender inequalities in Ukraine and how women and women’s organisations are responding. They discuss the mood in Ukraine as it enters its fourth winter of full-scale war and the toll the conflict is taking on women from higher rates of sexual and gender-based violence, mounting mental health pressures and economic insecurity. They explore how women are navigating both the challenges and opportunities the war has created, how the Ukrainian government is addressing these issues, and how women’s organisations are affected by aid cuts. As Crisis Group marks its 30th anniversary, they also discuss how women’s roles in politics and peacemaking in Ukraine and beyond are evolving amid a global pushback against gender equality and women’s rights.

For more, check out our Gender and Conflict and Ukraine pages.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel are joined by Bob Deen, Head of the Security Unit at the Clingendael Institute, to assess the state of diplomacy aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. They discuss why peace efforts by the U.S. and others have struggled to gain traction, and what diplomacy can realistically achieve in the near term. They also look at Kyiv’s attempts to build broader global support for a peace initiative and which countries are best positioned to play a constructive role. They also consider the roles that international organisations such as the OSCE and UN might play in shaping a settlement in Ukraine and how these institutions could fit into a future European security order.

Note: This episode was recorded before President Trump’s call with President Putin last week, their announcement of a planned summit in Budapest, and Trump’s White House meeting with President Zelenskyy.

This episode was made possible through extra-budgetary funding from the OSCE. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the OSCE.

For more, check out our Ukraine and Europe & Central Asia pages.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Valery Kavaleuski, former Belarusian diplomat and Executive Director of the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Agency, about Minsk’s evolving foreign policy and how it is constrained by enduring Russian influence. They discuss the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise Zapad 2025, which took place just after 19 Russian drones crossed into Poland, heightening tensions between NATO and Moscow. They unpack Belarus’ continued participation in the Vienna Document, its recent engagement with Washington, which seems to have led to prisoner releases in exchange for sanctions relief, and whether the EU and its members should adopt a more pragmatic approach when engaging with Minsk. They also look at the future of Belarus’ domestic politics, the prospects for dialogue between the opposition and the Lukashenka government, and what a post-Lukashenka Belarus might look like.

This episode was made possible through extra-budgetary funding from the OSCE. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the OSCE.

For more, check out our Belarus and Europe & Central Asia pages.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker speaks with Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a non-resident Senior Associate at CSIS, about Russia’s changing role in the Middle East. They discuss how Moscow is responding to the fall of Assad in Syria and the twelve-day war between Israel (and the U.S.) and Iran. They explore how Russia’s relationships with regional capitals are evolving, what Middle Eastern states hope to gain from partnership with Moscow and the prospects for U.S.-Russia cooperation in the region.

For more, check out our Middle East and Europe & Central Asia page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Dr. Pia Fuhrhop, head of the International Security Research Division at SWP, about the upcoming NATO summit, transatlantic relations, and how European NATO allies are working to strengthen their own defence. They discuss expectations for the summit, the potential role of Ukraine, and the alliance’s push to raise defence spending targets to 5% of GDP amid growing U.S. pressure for more burden-sharing. They look at Germany’s evolving role in European security and the new government’s ambition to build “the strongest conventional army in Europe”. Finally, they consider the value of holding regular summits at a time when transatlantic relations are increasingly volatile.

For more, check out our report Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future and our Europe & Central Asia page.

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