Elliptical Orbit? Belarusian Foreign Policy in Fraught Times

In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Valery Kavaleuski, former Belarusian diplomat and Executive Director of the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Agency, about Minsk’s evolving foreign policy and how it is constrained by enduring Russian influence. They discuss the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise Zapad 2025, which took place just after 19 Russian drones crossed into Poland, heightening tensions between NATO and Moscow. They unpack Belarus’ continued participation in the Vienna Document, its recent engagement with Washington, which seems to have led to prisoner releases in exchange for sanctions relief, and whether the EU and its members should adopt a more pragmatic approach when engaging with Minsk. They also look at the future of Belarus’ domestic politics, the prospects for dialogue between the opposition and the Lukashenka government, and what a post-Lukashenka Belarus might look like.

This episode was made possible through extra-budgetary funding from the OSCE. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the OSCE.

For more, check out our Belarus and Europe & Central Asia pages.

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