In this episode, we delve into the complexities of Sino-Russian intelligence cooperation, examining whether their partnership is truly boundless or if there are limits to their collaboration. We explore how historical experiences have influenced their contemporary intelligence strategies and the dynamics of their cooperation both before and after the Sino-Soviet rapprochement. Additionally, we discuss the independent nature of their respective intelligence agencies, the role of Taiwan in Russia's operations against China, and the intricacies of managing intelligence-related issues. Finally, we look at how their intelligence operations intersect in regions like the Indo-Pacific and Europe. This episode is part of our special series featuring Japanese thinkers and academics on current Indo-Pacific affairs and in the field of foreign and security policies.

This month's guest: Sanshiro Hosaka is a Research Fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) in Estonia. His current research interests include strategic narrative, disinformation, political technology, Soviet/Russian active measures, intelligence history, epistemic community, Sino-Russian relations, and Baltic security. Previously, he served as a Project Management Officer in the Japan-funded intergovernmental committees in the field of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. He also worked at Japanese diplomatic missions in Dushanbe and Kyiv.

Show notes:

https://icds.ee/en/a-forbidden-zone-of-no-limits-friendship-possibilities-and-constraints-in-sino-russia/

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-russia-alignment-cooperation-ukraine-war-military-supplies-putin-xi-jinpin/

https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/11/intelligence-china-russia-information-operations-against-nato/

https://www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/clock-tower-security-series/strategic-competition-seminar-series/russia-and-chinas-intelligence-and-information-operations-nexus

In this episode, we explore the growing presence of Chinese electric vehicle companies like BYD and Leapmotor in Europe, challenging the region’s automotive dominance despite efforts like EU tariffs. The story unfolds with Germany's industrial base grappling with the "second China shock," revealing how its overreliance on China has left it vulnerable in the face of shifting global dynamics. As Central and Eastern Europe finds itself caught between German supply chains and increasing Chinese influence, the episode delves into the consequences of this dependency and the tough choices facing these economies. We also explore how Europe is being forced to rethink its approach, shifting from a traditional market mindset to one that embraces system competitiveness, all while considering the potential creation of Special Economic Zones to safeguard the region’s future. It’s a story of shifting power, economic risks, and the evolving battle for industrial dominance in Europe. This episode belongs to the special series which is part of the collaboration between CHOICE, ECFR, and OSW.

Janka Oertel is director of the Asia programme and a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She previously worked as a senior fellow in the Asia programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Berlin office, where she focused on transatlantic China policy including on emerging technologies, Chinese foreign policy, and security in east Asia. Prior to joining the GMF, she served as a programme director at Körber Foundation’s Berlin office. She was also a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin) and worked at United Nations Headquarters, New York, as a Carlo-Schmid fellow.

Jakub Jakóbowski Deputy Director of the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) and the head of the China Department, having previosly served as the coordinator of the „Connectivity in Eurasia” project and a Senior Fellow on China’s economy. Formerly a Taiwan Fellow at Soochow University in Taipei and a European China Policy Fellow at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). He holds a PhD in political science from the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), based on a dissertation on China’s foreign economic policy towards the Global South. He gives lectures at the Warsaw University and the Warsaw School of Economics. Member of a number of international projects and associations, including the Think Visegrad, China Observers in Central Europe (CHOICE) and the Horizon 2020 EU-STRAT project.

Disclaimer: This episode has been recorded in February 2025.

In this exploration of Lithuania's bold diplomatic stance on Taiwan, Lithuania’s former Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis provides a first-hand account of navigating the complex geopolitical tensions between Beijing, Taipei, and Vilnius. The conversation examines China's escalating pressure tactics following Lithuania's controversial decision to open a Taiwanese representative office, offering valuable lessons for democracies confronting authoritarian coercion. Our guest analyzes the strategic linkages between Russia's war in Ukraine and Indo-Pacific security challenges, evaluating NATO's evolving approach to China and questioning whether Western powers are sending appropriate deterrence signals. The episode delivers rare insights into how smaller democratic nations can shape international relations while navigating the increasingly interconnected security challenges across Europe and Asia.

This month's guest: Gabrielius Landsbergis is a Lithuanian politician and diplomat who served as Lithuania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs from December 2020 until November 2024.

Links:

https://geopolitique.eu/en/2025/01/14/a-conversation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis-lithuanias-former-minister-of-foreign-affairs/

https://kyivindependent.com/us-russia-talks-are-the-last-warning-for-europe-gabrielius-landsbergis-says/

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2423737/nato-must-draw-red-lines-for-russia-over-hybrid-attacks-lithuanian-fm

https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/resilience-resolve-lessons-lithuanias-experience-chinese-economic-coercion

https://globaltaiwan.org/2022/07/lithuanias-confrontation-with-china-over-taiwan-lessons-from-a-small-country/

When discussing Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, we often focus on its broader, pan-European implications. In doing so, we sometimes overlook the profound local impact on Ukrainian communities, with individual stories only occasionally reaching the mainstream. How has the war affected the Ukrainian people as a nation, and how are they coping? What has Ukraine discovered about the so-called "Axis of Evil" warfare alliance through its analysis of Russian military technology? How does China support the Russian military? We explore these questions - and much more - with Kateryna Musiienko.

This month's guest: Kateryna Musiienko is a Senior Foreign Policy Expert at the National Interests Advocacy Network (ANTS), Kremenchuk City Council Member, and the Deputy Head of the Committee for Foreign Relations, Education, and Youth. Kateryna is a former Advisor to Andrius Kubilius, a Member of the European Parliament, and former advisor to the Head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament. She is a founder of the Ukraine Development Center NGO, which focuses on local European projects and reconstruction. She holds master’s degrees from the University of Oxford, the University of Passau, and the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv.

As China continues to speak about "peaceful reunification" while raising regional tensions, and Donald Trump's new administration takes full effect, Japan faces growing uncertainty. Despite maintaining a strong working relationship with president Trump during his first term, Japan can no longer fully count on U.S. military intervention. What does this mean for Japan’s future, and what steps will it take next?

This month's guest: Nobushige Takamizawa is currently Visiting Professor at the University of Tokyo. Before coming back to Tokyo, he served as Ambassador of Japan to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva from December 2016 to January 2020. Between 2013 and 2016, he worked for the Cabinet Secretariat as Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary and Deputy Secretary-General of the National Security Secretariat (NSS), and Director-General of the National Centre for Incident Readiness and Strategy for Cybersecurity (NISC). He joined the Ministry of Defense in 1978 and has taken various positions in MOD including Director-General of the Bureau of Defense Policy and President of the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS).

Since Xi Jinping's rise to power, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been undergoing extensive reforms. From increasing defense spending, to investing in new technological capabilities and learning from Russia's war in Ukraine, China has been set on transforming its military into a top-tier force. In this episode, Meia Nouwens discusses China's road to military modernization under Xi Jinping as China's President as well as the chairman of the Central Military Commission.

This month's guest:Meia Nouwens is a Senior Fellow for Chinese Security and Defence Policy at IISS, specializing in China’s defence industry, military innovation, and regional strategic affairs. She leads research on China’s Digital Silk Road and previously co-led the China Security Project with MERICS. Before joining IISS, she worked for the European External Action Service in Taipei and New Zealand, as well as in private-sector consulting on foreign policy and defence. She holds degrees in international relations from Macquarie University and Leiden University, and an MPhil in modern Chinese studies from Oxford and Peking University.

See notes:

• Three Dates, Three Windows, and All of DOTMLPF-P
• China’s Military Modernisation: Recent Trends - 2024
• DOD Report Details Chinese Efforts to Build Military Power
• China’s Modernizing Military | Council on Foreign Relations

In November 2024, a tragic roof collapse at Novi Sad’s train station claimed 15 lives and ignited nationwide protests in Serbia. But what really happened? Who bears responsibility? And how do Chinese firms and their involvement in the station's reconstruction fit into the bigger picture? In this episode, we explore the fallout of this disaster, its impact on Serbia’s politics, and the potential effects on Sino-Serbian relations with expert insight from Stefan Vladisavljev.

This month's guest:

Stefan Vladisavljev holds program director position at Foundation BFPE for a Responsible Society since April of 2024. Prior to that, Stefan was BFPE program coordinator and assistant. He is also part of the team behind Belgrade Security Forum. As a part of the program team, Stefan is responsible for program planning, speaker selection and analytical writing. During his engagement in BFPE, so far, he is mostly dealing with the topics in the field of international relations and security and foreign policy. His main expertise is cooperation between actors in the field of international relations, and foreign actors influence, with the focus on cooperation between Western Balkans countries and China. Stefan is also a CHOICE Fellow for the Western Balkan region.

See notes:

Serbia and China: What Does the “Shared Future” Hold for “Steel Friends”?⁠⁠

Chinese Influence in Serbia⁠

⁠“Steel Friendship” — Forging of the Perception of China by the Serbian Political Elite⁠

⁠FACILITATING KLEPTOCRACY: THE CONSEQUENCES OF CHINA’S CORROSIVE CAPITAL IN SERBIA⁠

⁠China’s 'Digital Silk Road' Enters the Western Balkans

The results of the 2024 US presidential election are set to shape the future of global politics, with potentially far-reaching effects on the balance of power, international relations, and economic strategies. How do key players like China perceive this pivotal moment, and what might a second Trump term mean for the evolving dynamics between the US, China, and Russia? Dive into this episode for an in-depth look at these critical developments and their implications.

This month's guests:

• Vivian Wu - CEO & Founder of Dasheng Media
• Maria Repnikova - Scholar of China political communication, Associate Professor at Georgia State University

See notes:

• What Does Trump’s Election Victory Mean for Russia?
• What Trump’s Win Means for U.S. Foreign Policy
• What does Trump’s return mean for America’s relations with Russia?
• As the U.S. Votes, China Is Watching
• Dasheng Media