In this episode, we delve into the complexities of Sino-Russian intelligence cooperation, examining whether their partnership is truly boundless or if there are limits to their collaboration. We explore how historical experiences have influenced their contemporary intelligence strategies and the dynamics of their cooperation both before and after the Sino-Soviet rapprochement. Additionally, we discuss the independent nature of their respective intelligence agencies, the role of Taiwan in Russia's operations against China, and the intricacies of managing intelligence-related issues. Finally, we look at how their intelligence operations intersect in regions like the Indo-Pacific and Europe. This episode is part of our special series featuring Japanese thinkers and academics on current Indo-Pacific affairs and in the field of foreign and security policies.

This month's guest: Sanshiro Hosaka is a Research Fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) in Estonia. His current research interests include strategic narrative, disinformation, political technology, Soviet/Russian active measures, intelligence history, epistemic community, Sino-Russian relations, and Baltic security. Previously, he served as a Project Management Officer in the Japan-funded intergovernmental committees in the field of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. He also worked at Japanese diplomatic missions in Dushanbe and Kyiv.

Show notes:

https://icds.ee/en/a-forbidden-zone-of-no-limits-friendship-possibilities-and-constraints-in-sino-russia/

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-russia-alignment-cooperation-ukraine-war-military-supplies-putin-xi-jinpin/

https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/11/intelligence-china-russia-information-operations-against-nato/

https://www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/clock-tower-security-series/strategic-competition-seminar-series/russia-and-chinas-intelligence-and-information-operations-nexus

In this episode, we explore the growing presence of Chinese electric vehicle companies like BYD and Leapmotor in Europe, challenging the region’s automotive dominance despite efforts like EU tariffs. The story unfolds with Germany's industrial base grappling with the "second China shock," revealing how its overreliance on China has left it vulnerable in the face of shifting global dynamics. As Central and Eastern Europe finds itself caught between German supply chains and increasing Chinese influence, the episode delves into the consequences of this dependency and the tough choices facing these economies. We also explore how Europe is being forced to rethink its approach, shifting from a traditional market mindset to one that embraces system competitiveness, all while considering the potential creation of Special Economic Zones to safeguard the region’s future. It’s a story of shifting power, economic risks, and the evolving battle for industrial dominance in Europe. This episode belongs to the special series which is part of the collaboration between CHOICE, ECFR, and OSW.

Janka Oertel is director of the Asia programme and a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She previously worked as a senior fellow in the Asia programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Berlin office, where she focused on transatlantic China policy including on emerging technologies, Chinese foreign policy, and security in east Asia. Prior to joining the GMF, she served as a programme director at Körber Foundation’s Berlin office. She was also a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin) and worked at United Nations Headquarters, New York, as a Carlo-Schmid fellow.

Jakub Jakóbowski Deputy Director of the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) and the head of the China Department, having previosly served as the coordinator of the „Connectivity in Eurasia” project and a Senior Fellow on China’s economy. Formerly a Taiwan Fellow at Soochow University in Taipei and a European China Policy Fellow at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). He holds a PhD in political science from the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), based on a dissertation on China’s foreign economic policy towards the Global South. He gives lectures at the Warsaw University and the Warsaw School of Economics. Member of a number of international projects and associations, including the Think Visegrad, China Observers in Central Europe (CHOICE) and the Horizon 2020 EU-STRAT project.

Their Paper

Disclaimer: This episode has been recorded in February 2025.

In this exploration of Lithuania's bold diplomatic stance on Taiwan, Lithuania’s former Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis provides a first-hand account of navigating the complex geopolitical tensions between Beijing, Taipei, and Vilnius. The conversation examines China's escalating pressure tactics following Lithuania's controversial decision to open a Taiwanese representative office, offering valuable lessons for democracies confronting authoritarian coercion. Our guest analyzes the strategic linkages between Russia's war in Ukraine and Indo-Pacific security challenges, evaluating NATO's evolving approach to China and questioning whether Western powers are sending appropriate deterrence signals. The episode delivers rare insights into how smaller democratic nations can shape international relations while navigating the increasingly interconnected security challenges across Europe and Asia.

This month's guest: Gabrielius Landsbergis is a Lithuanian politician and diplomat who served as Lithuania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs from December 2020 until November 2024.

Links:

https://geopolitique.eu/en/2025/01/14/a-conversation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis-lithuanias-former-minister-of-foreign-affairs/

https://kyivindependent.com/us-russia-talks-are-the-last-warning-for-europe-gabrielius-landsbergis-says/

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2423737/nato-must-draw-red-lines-for-russia-over-hybrid-attacks-lithuanian-fm

https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/resilience-resolve-lessons-lithuanias-experience-chinese-economic-coercion

https://globaltaiwan.org/2022/07/lithuanias-confrontation-with-china-over-taiwan-lessons-from-a-small-country/