Please find below the text of my side of the chat about the races we worked on for the weekend.

NEWBURY 1-25

Unsurprisingly, this has gone to a seasonal debutante on each of the last five occasions.

Now down to seven runners it is best left to one of:

• SUNWAY
• ANCIENT WISDOM
• BELLUM JUSTUM

There has been no winner in the last 10 years return an SP bigger than 7/1, and it is currently 10/1 bar that trio.

We did have an 18/1 winner in 2023 but I’ve put that down as an anomaly.

They all fit perfectly from an age perspective and weights do not matter.

The only thing that really matters in April is match fitness….for a Group 3, you’d assume the trainers have them ready.

I guess the form horse has to be SUNWAY, who was only beaten 10 lengths and bits in last years Arc de Triomphe but despite racing often at Group 1 level, he’s also been beaten at odds on in his last two runs at Group 3. His last win came in 2023 on very soft ground, and I just think he’s hard to win with.

I’m going with ANCIENT WISDOM. He’s preferred to ARABIAN CROWN, who Godolphin also had in here. A winner of five of his nine career starts to date, his only unplaced effort to date was in the Derby last season….I’ll forgive any horse a bad run at Epsom….he’s rated just 1lb shy of SUNWAY, and 4LBS better than BELLUIM JUSTUM.

The yard is already going well, three winners from eight runners in the last two weeks.

RON – ANCIENT WISDOM

SEAN - SUNWAY

NEWBURY 2-00

We have 16 x 3-y-o’s going to post here….which have trained on? Your guess is going to be as good as mine.

I’m relying very much on the markets when it comes to such races in April and that’s as good a way in here as any because we’ve seen just three winners bigger than 5/1 in the last decade, no winner bigger than 5/1 in the last four running’s, and applying those market stats to this we get a shortlist of three:

• SIMMERING
• MOUNTAIN BREEZE
• HEAVENS GATE

Thing is, and as we’ve already seen plenty of times already this season, the markets are moving like crazy in the run up to the races starting and would anyone be surprised if the Haggas trained NADRA went of favourite come Saturday?

Just one run, currently around 8/1, drawn 2 and a low draw no disadvantage so keep a close eye on the tissue….I will be.

I have to go with MOUNTAIN BREEZE, who is clearly out to pot hunt early doors, two wins ay Meydan in January/March, and he will be cherry ripe for this. The other two return from breaks of 188 and 162 days respectively so mine has surely got a fitness edge.

Appleby has only run one in this before….it won.

RON – MOUNTAIN BREEZE

SEAN – MOUNTAIN BREEZE

NEWBURY 2-35

Originally 16 runners declared, down to 10 runners as I was starting to work on it. Again all 3-y-o’s. We had a runner in this many moons ago, HIDDON COIN….had no chance but he gave our members a great day out.

This has been a bit trickier to solve in the last 10 years, two 16/1 shots going in, in the last nine, David O’Meara winning it last year with ESQUIRE @ 16/1.

He has ROGUE ALLEGIANCE in here and I was reading a very interesting article by the owners. He’s in the 2000Gns but they doubt he’ll stay. He has apparently really strengthened up over the winter and is going well at home….16/1 > 8/1, now eased back to 10/1.

They turned down big money for him after he won at Newcastle in December and expect a big run

I’d be looking front four on the tissue usually though and that one currently sits fifth best….keep watching that market though!

JONQUIL has moved from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard to Balding and looks fancied 11/2 > 4/1 but all these...

Sean can be heard battling his man-flu as we look back at Cheltenham, and try to find some Saturday winners from what is the "fag end" of the NH season.

1. The Irish at Cheltenham – how did they REALLY do and how can British racing compete? (I make it 252 runners and a level stakes profit to BSP of £202.32 backing them all blindly.

Very much helped out by that 100/1 winner, which paid 225.81 BFSP but yep, a fact is a fact.

How did they really do? They smashed us up 20-8, with Mullins getting another 10 winners. It wasn’t too bad until we got to the Friday, then our lot might just as well have not turned up.

• Crowds down but fun up – what can Cheltenham do to get the people back next year?

I don’t think Cheltenham can do much of anything to be honest. NH racing is losing its flavour but that’s the fault of the racecourses….and that applies to the flat, too.

What I see as the problem is, the Saturday and Festival meetings attract the poseurs, and for years they have pandered to them. Now they are not going and the tracks are wanting the folk that love the sport to come back….but to pay the same prices the poseurs would pay.

They will not do that.

I told you a few days back, I have already had an email offering me 50% off ticket prices for Cheltenham 2026 and I’ll guarantee some listening to this have had that same offer.

If you start looking for an alternative audience to the one that produced your bread and butter, because there is not enough of us to cover the costs, and those beer swillers that are there just to be seen then decide it’s time to be seen somewhere else, you get the situation you now see. There will never be enough lovers of horse racing to fill those coffers now….and even if I went, I’d not pay £8 for a pint of Guinness….so they have some figure juggling to do.

• Cheltenham review in brief – our own individual highs and lows from last week

Personal high was making a profit from the meeting, and the performance of FACT OR FILE, which was the best of the week by a country mile…he’ll win next season’s Gold Cup if that same horse turns up.

The biggest low was the number of false starts. That above everything else properly got my goat.

Another high was the two top sellers on the Thursday Cheltenham sales will race in the UK next season. Someone is digging deep for Harry Derham, who is a champion trainer in waiting.

Saturday racing

Kelso 1.50pm

Just the six runners and as it has never been run before, I’m pretty much stuck. As I’ve been saying in recent Newsletters, this is now the “fag end” of the NH season and I’m looking forward to us doing our first video together, when we’ll be discussing the forthcoming flat season….date to be decided on that one and I need to iron my green screen!

We have a rock solid odds on shot in WYENOT here, rated 9lb and more superior to these, and yet only has to give the next best of these, the Irish trained OTTIZINI, 4lb….and she beat that one by nine lengths the last time they met.

In April last year she ran this years Champion Hurdle winner, GOLDEN ACE, to less than nine lengths and she should beat this lot given she’s the joint least exposed runner, still open to improvement and has hardly been over raced this season, just four starts, two of which saw her in the winner’s enclosure.

Has to be WYENOT.

RON – WYENOT

SEAN - WYENOT