Mullins and Grand National Fallout

Please find below the text of my side of the chat about the races we worked on for the weekend.

NEWBURY 1-25

Unsurprisingly, this has gone to a seasonal debutante on each of the last five occasions.

Now down to seven runners it is best left to one of:

• SUNWAY
• ANCIENT WISDOM
• BELLUM JUSTUM

There has been no winner in the last 10 years return an SP bigger than 7/1, and it is currently 10/1 bar that trio.

We did have an 18/1 winner in 2023 but I’ve put that down as an anomaly.

They all fit perfectly from an age perspective and weights do not matter.

The only thing that really matters in April is match fitness….for a Group 3, you’d assume the trainers have them ready.

I guess the form horse has to be SUNWAY, who was only beaten 10 lengths and bits in last years Arc de Triomphe but despite racing often at Group 1 level, he’s also been beaten at odds on in his last two runs at Group 3. His last win came in 2023 on very soft ground, and I just think he’s hard to win with.

I’m going with ANCIENT WISDOM. He’s preferred to ARABIAN CROWN, who Godolphin also had in here. A winner of five of his nine career starts to date, his only unplaced effort to date was in the Derby last season….I’ll forgive any horse a bad run at Epsom….he’s rated just 1lb shy of SUNWAY, and 4LBS better than BELLUIM JUSTUM.

The yard is already going well, three winners from eight runners in the last two weeks.

RON – ANCIENT WISDOM

SEAN - SUNWAY

NEWBURY 2-00

We have 16 x 3-y-o’s going to post here….which have trained on? Your guess is going to be as good as mine.

I’m relying very much on the markets when it comes to such races in April and that’s as good a way in here as any because we’ve seen just three winners bigger than 5/1 in the last decade, no winner bigger than 5/1 in the last four running’s, and applying those market stats to this we get a shortlist of three:

• SIMMERING
• MOUNTAIN BREEZE
• HEAVENS GATE

Thing is, and as we’ve already seen plenty of times already this season, the markets are moving like crazy in the run up to the races starting and would anyone be surprised if the Haggas trained NADRA went of favourite come Saturday?

Just one run, currently around 8/1, drawn 2 and a low draw no disadvantage so keep a close eye on the tissue….I will be.

I have to go with MOUNTAIN BREEZE, who is clearly out to pot hunt early doors, two wins ay Meydan in January/March, and he will be cherry ripe for this. The other two return from breaks of 188 and 162 days respectively so mine has surely got a fitness edge.

Appleby has only run one in this before….it won.

RON – MOUNTAIN BREEZE

SEAN – MOUNTAIN BREEZE

NEWBURY 2-35

Originally 16 runners declared, down to 10 runners as I was starting to work on it. Again all 3-y-o’s. We had a runner in this many moons ago, HIDDON COIN….had no chance but he gave our members a great day out.

This has been a bit trickier to solve in the last 10 years, two 16/1 shots going in, in the last nine, David O’Meara winning it last year with ESQUIRE @ 16/1.

He has ROGUE ALLEGIANCE in here and I was reading a very interesting article by the owners. He’s in the 2000Gns but they doubt he’ll stay. He has apparently really strengthened up over the winter and is going well at home….16/1 > 8/1, now eased back to 10/1.

They turned down big money for him after he won at Newcastle in December and expect a big run

I’d be looking front four on the tissue usually though and that one currently sits fifth best….keep watching that market though!

JONQUIL has moved from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard to Balding and looks fancied 11/2 > 4/1 but all these...