• Mental Game Decides Outcomes: The Dodgers' calm, strategic focus on capitalizing on mistakes (e.g., Yamamoto's intentional walk) overcame the Jays' superior talent, proving that composure under pressure is the ultimate differentiator.

• Risk is Frequency x Severity: True risk understanding requires analyzing both how often an event occurs (frequency) and its impact (severity). This framework explains why high-severity, low-frequency risks (like product liability) are so dangerous.

• Restaurant Industry is a "Supply Trap": The restaurant business is inherently difficult due to low barriers to entry (high supply), no scale advantage, and high customer switching costs. Success requires a habit-forming model (e.g., Starbucks) or a strong brand for milestone events (e.g., The Keg).

• Ethics Vary by Influence: Warren Buffett's distinction between owning stock (no control) and owning a company outright (directing activities) highlights that ethical responsibility is tied to one's level of influence.

• The Dodgers' World Series win over the Blue Jays was attributed to their superior mental game and composure under pressure.

• Key Play Analysis (Game 7):

• Context: Bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, runner on 2nd.

• Yamamoto's Intentional Walk: Yamamoto walked the hot-hitting Addison Barger on 4 pitches to face the slower-running Alejandro Kirk.

• Rationale: This strategic move increased the probability of a double play, as a home run's severity (game over) was the same regardless of runners on base.

• Outcome: Kirk hit a broken-bat grounder, resulting in a game-ending double play.

• Jays' Critical Mistakes:

• Game 6: Addison Barger was picked off 2nd base.

• Game 7: IKF took too small a lead on 3rd base, preventing him from scoring on a wild throw.

• Game 7: Kirk's broken bat on the final play.

• The World Series analysis led to a discussion on understanding risk in business.

• Defining Risk Understanding: True understanding goes beyond stating risks; it requires explaining how to mitigate them and living with the downside.

• Insurance Industry Model:

• Reported Claims: Known losses with an estimated cost.

• IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported) Claims: Losses that have occurred but are not yet known. Insurers must reserve for both.

• Frequency vs. Severity Framework:

• Frequency: How often an event occurs.

• Severity: The impact of that event.

• Example: A broken bat is a low-frequency event, but its severity was game-ending in Game 7.

• Restaurant Industry Risk Analysis:

• High Supply: Low barriers to entry (one location is minimum viable scale).

• Low Switching Costs: Customers are incentivized to try new places.

• Commodity Costs: Food expenses are subject to volatile commodity prices.

• Success Factors:

• Habit Formation: Models that allow solo dining (e.g., Starbucks) build daily habits.

• Strong Brand: A clear identity for specific occasions (e.g., The Keg for anniversaries).

• The discussion shifted to Warren Buffett's ethical investing philosophy.

• Buffett's Stance: He would buy stock in a tobacco company (minority ownership) but would not own one outright.

• Rationale: Ethical responsibility is tied to influence. Owning stock provides no control, but outright ownership means directing activities.

• Charlie Munger's View: Criticized the cultural trend of pursuing any profitable activity that is not illegal, arguing that some actions are "beneath us."

• 
  

Amer discusses his experience attending a recent conference for his company Contracting.com, including the tactics he used for filming ads and testimonials, the lessons he learned from past conferences, and the format of the upcoming conference which will have more workshops and less lectures.

Austin and Amer compare the conference formats of Rydel's upcoming event versus Contracting.com's, noting the trend towards more interactive workshops over traditional presentations. They discuss the pros and cons of different approaches and the goal of maximizing audience engagement.

John mentions a potential podcast guest who wrote a best-selling Bitcoin book, while Amer suggests having Adel as a guest. The group expresses interest in both potential guests.

Austin shares about his enjoyable Thanksgiving weekend, including participating in a 5K fundraiser run and spending quality time with family and friends.

Austin discusses his recent purchase of a wood-fired sauna for his backyard, including plans to add a cold plunge tub nearby for recovery. Amer provides some tips on sauna options and cost-saving measures.

The meeting begins with casual conversation and banter between the participants, including discussions about Vanilla Ice, music, and personal experiences like Friendsgiving.

The participants share what they are grateful for, including their network, family's health, and the infinite game of life and business.

The group discusses how businesses have natural cycles of growth and decline, and how this relates to their own experiences and perspectives on the ups and downs of entrepreneurship.

The participants dive into the stories of the Walton, Rockefeller, and Davis families, analyzing the different approaches these families took to managing wealth, passing it on, and maintaining family relationships.

The discussion shifts to the personal and psychological implications of wealth, including the challenges of balancing financial ambition with family, relationships, and personal values.

The meeting concludes with a recap of the key insights and lessons learned, as the participants reflect on their own approaches to wealth, success, and living a fulfilling life.

• Austin is helping his mother with financial challenges, offering "sweat equity" support rather than direct financial aid

• Amer shared experiences of complex family expectations and conflicts around finances and responsibilities

• John highlighted issues of inaccurate communication vs. lying in family disputes, and the importance of taking personal responsibility

• Austin's stepfather is terminally ill, revealing financial challenges

• Austin is providing operational support to his mother's business (2-8 hours/week)

• Austin views this as his responsibility as a son, likening it to helping in an emergency

• Experienced "unspoken expectations" becoming spoken during COVID

• Complex "team" dynamics formed between family members with shared expectations

• Challenges in aligning different personalities and stress responses

• Multiple family members not speaking to each other

• Differing recollections of past events causing conflicts

• John acts as a "free agent", maintaining open communication with all

• Austin: Encouraging direct communication between conflicting parties

• Amer: Role-playing conversations to help family members prepare for difficult discussions

• John: Distinguishing between inaccurate speech and lying, extending grace for differing perspectives

• Contrast between Austin's and Amer's family expectations around financial support

• Discussion of multi-generational conflicts and resentments

• Austin to continue providing operational support to his mother's business

• John and Amer to have a follow-up conversation offline about unresolved topics

• All participants to reflect on strategies for navigating complex family dynamics and communication challenges

• 
  

.

• John's company has found success hiring experienced painters (2-3 years) from disorganized companies and women, who excel at customer service
• The group discussed approaches for handling emotionally charged conversations, emphasizing curiosity and avoiding moral high ground
• Amer shared a dramatic story about intervening to help a woman being harassed and ultimately escaping a threatening situation
• Noah has revamped hiring approach, targeting painters with 2-3 years experience from disorganized companies
• Women hires have been extremely successful, especially paired with fast but less organized male painters
• Close rate for in-office sales presentations was nearly double compared to other methods
• Group discussed challenges of workplace romances, agreeing they're difficult to prevent entirely
• John avoids strict policies, focusing instead on maintaining a professional environment
• Anecdote shared about cleaners making a suspicious offer to clean John's office late at night
• Discussed strategies for engaging in emotionally charged topics without taking moral high ground
• Emphasized importance of curiosity about others' thought processes rather than focusing on conclusions
• Amer suggested helping others construct logical arguments to better understand their positions
• Amer intervened to help a woman being harassed by an aggressive stranger
• Used de-escalation tactics and ultimately had to run to escape the pursuer
• Reflected on decision-making process and options considered during the incident
• Austin to apply learnings about avoiding moral high ground in difficult family conversations
• John to continue refining hiring practices based on recent successes
• Group to remain mindful of strategies discussed for handling emotionally charged topics

• 
  

• Austin is growing his coaching team from 4 to 7 coaches for 2026 and seeking ways to improve communication between coaches

• John shared a mental model for evaluating marketing strategies based on impressions vs conversions

• The group explored moral philosophy in business, discussing examples from Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's careers

• Austin's son Henry is now developmentally at full term, sleeping 20-21 hours a day with occasional 2-3 hour awake periods

• Austin and Miranda are working with a lactation consultant to improve breastfeeding, facing challenges due to Henry's premature birth

• John shared updates on his son's breastfeeding habits and sleep patterns

• Austin recently did a 60km bike ride, enjoying the physical demand and mind-clearing benefits

• Discussed different types of bikes (gravel vs road) and high-end bicycle technology

• John bought a used Peloton bike for home workouts, balancing exercise with family time

• John shared a mental model for evaluating marketing based on impressions vs conversions

• Discussed cost-effectiveness of various marketing channels (flyers, door-knocking, Google ads)

• Austin's company uses financing offers to boost fall sales, offering 6 months 0% interest

• Austin is expanding his coaching team from 4 to 7 coaches for 2026

• Seeking solutions to improve communication between coaches about client interactions

• Discussed potential use of AI and Zapier for automating meeting notes and information sharing

• Explored examples of moral decision-making in business from Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger

• Discussed the balance between economic decisions and moral considerations

• John argued that most moral decisions in business have underlying economic rationales

• Austin shared goals of paying off current house mortgage within 5 years before moving

• Discussed strategies for maximizing investments and tax-advantaged accounts

• Austin to explore Zapier integration for improving coach communication

• John to continue writing letters as a self-reflection and critical thinking exercise

• Amer plans to read more diverse philosophical texts to broaden his perspective

• 
  

Here’s a summary of the conversation

Big questions & themes

• How much ethical responsibility should ultra-large owners (e.g., Rockefeller then, Bezos now) bear for actions taken by distant agents or employees? Scale makes direct control impossible, so culpability is murky.

• Judging historical “robber barons” by modern standards is tricky; industrialization also delivered massive societal benefits (railroads, wartime production capacity).

• Amazon is held up as dramatically improving consumer welfare (especially for the poor) via lower prices and strong service, while critics cite worker treatment, monopoly power, and harm to small businesses.

Labor vs. capital, unions, and management

• Core debate: unions as necessary counterweight when management fails vs. unions creating “unworkability” that drives capital and jobs away (Detroit cited as cautionary tale). Costco is praised as a high-wage, high-retention alternative model.

• Employer tactics to tilt the bargain ethically: example of a company buying employees’ vehicles (tax-efficient, lowers risk for workers, boosts retention/switching costs).

• Broader historical lens: serfs vs. slaves, incentives for care and productivity, and how modern safety nets (welfare/healthcare) parallel older community/Church supports. Stoic anecdotes (Epictetus) surface around dignity and perception.

Philanthropy & legacy

• Carnegie’s Gospel of Wealth, vanity vs. anonymous giving, and building “Costco-like” efficiency in philanthropy (e.g., modern academies/foundations) as a model for high-leverage charity.

Investing, Bitcoin, and risk

• Investing philosophy favors cash-generative, mispriced assets over non-productive “greater-fool” bets. Deep-value plays can be incredible on paper but hinge on fraud risk and management quality.

• Bitcoin: skepticism despite multiple near-miss chances; best pro-BTC case framed as asymmetric payoff vs. zero, but dismissed as a gambling instrument. Includes a tragic anecdote about an early holder who sold, missed the upside, and later died by suicide (mentioned briefly without detail).

Personal/closing notes

• Reflections on reputation, how people judge with limited info, and trying to align business incentives with personal values and community. Light closing chatter about upcoming travel.