Ep 339 | Blue Jays Heartbreak

• Mental Game Decides Outcomes: The Dodgers' calm, strategic focus on capitalizing on mistakes (e.g., Yamamoto's intentional walk) overcame the Jays' superior talent, proving that composure under pressure is the ultimate differentiator.

• Risk is Frequency x Severity: True risk understanding requires analyzing both how often an event occurs (frequency) and its impact (severity). This framework explains why high-severity, low-frequency risks (like product liability) are so dangerous.

• Restaurant Industry is a "Supply Trap": The restaurant business is inherently difficult due to low barriers to entry (high supply), no scale advantage, and high customer switching costs. Success requires a habit-forming model (e.g., Starbucks) or a strong brand for milestone events (e.g., The Keg).

• Ethics Vary by Influence: Warren Buffett's distinction between owning stock (no control) and owning a company outright (directing activities) highlights that ethical responsibility is tied to one's level of influence.

• The Dodgers' World Series win over the Blue Jays was attributed to their superior mental game and composure under pressure.

• Key Play Analysis (Game 7):

• Context: Bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, runner on 2nd.

• Yamamoto's Intentional Walk: Yamamoto walked the hot-hitting Addison Barger on 4 pitches to face the slower-running Alejandro Kirk.

• Rationale: This strategic move increased the probability of a double play, as a home run's severity (game over) was the same regardless of runners on base.

• Outcome: Kirk hit a broken-bat grounder, resulting in a game-ending double play.

• Jays' Critical Mistakes:

• Game 6: Addison Barger was picked off 2nd base.

• Game 7: IKF took too small a lead on 3rd base, preventing him from scoring on a wild throw.

• Game 7: Kirk's broken bat on the final play.

• The World Series analysis led to a discussion on understanding risk in business.

• Defining Risk Understanding: True understanding goes beyond stating risks; it requires explaining how to mitigate them and living with the downside.

• Insurance Industry Model:

• Reported Claims: Known losses with an estimated cost.

• IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported) Claims: Losses that have occurred but are not yet known. Insurers must reserve for both.

• Frequency vs. Severity Framework:

• Frequency: How often an event occurs.

• Severity: The impact of that event.

• Example: A broken bat is a low-frequency event, but its severity was game-ending in Game 7.

• Restaurant Industry Risk Analysis:

• High Supply: Low barriers to entry (one location is minimum viable scale).

• Low Switching Costs: Customers are incentivized to try new places.

• Commodity Costs: Food expenses are subject to volatile commodity prices.

• Success Factors:

• Habit Formation: Models that allow solo dining (e.g., Starbucks) build daily habits.

• Strong Brand: A clear identity for specific occasions (e.g., The Keg for anniversaries).

• The discussion shifted to Warren Buffett's ethical investing philosophy.

• Buffett's Stance: He would buy stock in a tobacco company (minority ownership) but would not own one outright.

• Rationale: Ethical responsibility is tied to influence. Owning stock provides no control, but outright ownership means directing activities.

• Charlie Munger's View: Criticized the cultural trend of pursuing any profitable activity that is not illegal, arguing that some actions are "beneath us."

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