Welcome to this weekend edition of Watson Weekly with Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky! Today, we’re breaking down the biggest moves in retail and e-commerce from the past week..

We start with Target’s latest earnings, where a 1.7% dip in net sales has triggered a major turnaround strategy focused on beauty, food, and the Target Circle 360 premium membership. Then, we dive into Shopify’s investor event to discuss Agentic Commerce—is AI the new front door for online shopping?

Finally, we analyze the massive $50 billion investment/partnership between Amazon and OpenAI. Why is Amazon mandating the use of its Trainium chips, and what does this mean for the future of AWS?

The Watson Weekly Weekend edition is sponsored by Avalara.

Key Chapters

0:00 - Introduction

0:49 - Target Earnings: Sales Slump & The 2026 Turnaround

6:09 - Shopify’s Agentic Commerce Front Door

9:50 - Amazon & OpenAI: The $110 Billion Funding Round

#retailtech #Amazon #OpenAI #Shopify #TargetEarnings #EcommerceNews #AICommerce #AWS #WatsonWeekly

The dust has settled on Q4 and full-year 2025, and the numbers tell a fascinating story about the future of how we buy, ship, and sell. From Amazon’s record-breaking AWS growth to Walmart laying down the gauntlet, we are diving deep into the ripple effects these giants are creating across the entire ecosystem.

In this episode, Rick Watson breaks down the split personalities of Meta, the agentic jump ball between Shopify and Stripe, and why UPS finds itself in an incredibly tight spot between Amazon and union contracts. Whether you’re a David moving fast or a Goliath trying to transform, these are the trends you cannot afford to ignore.

Inside the Briefing

1. Amazon’s AI & Grocery Bet: Online stores are a $278 billion business. While physical retail has struggled, Amazon is doubling down on Whole Foods with a 20% increase in store count. Meanwhile, they are pouring $200 billion into capital expenditure, primarily for data centers and chips to fuel their AI driver.
2. The Walmart Juggernaut: Walmart is executing at an elite level, with 60% of stores now using automated freight and 50% of e-commerce shipments being automated. Their membership and ads business has scaled significantly, reaching one-third of Amazon’s operating profit.
3. The Shopify/Stripe Power Couple: Shopify saw a 30% revenue increase to $11.5 billion. Their B2B sector is a hidden gem, growing 96%. Notably, 64 cents of every dollar in Shopify’s merchant services business goes to their partner, Stripe.
4. Meta’s $83 Billion Gamble: Meta’s advertising business remains highly profitable with a 30% operating margin, but the Reality Labs division has lost $83 billion to date. Mark Zuckerberg is betting that smart glasses will be a cognitive necessity within five years.
5. UPS & PayPal in Transition: UPS is facing a massive volume decline as Amazon moves a million parcels a day away from their network. PayPal is currently described as a ship without a rudder, with rumors circulating that the company—or its crown jewel, Venmo—could be headed for a sale.

The biggest risk right now isn't being small; it's being a giant that cannot move. If you're an underdog, use your speed to your advantage because you can move faster than the incumbents.

Check out the full newsletter and more insights at: www.watsonweekly.com.

Huge thanks to our sponsors:

1. Avalara: The gold standard in tax and compliance solutions.
2. Kasama: A premier software integrator and agency.

Chapters:

Introduction

Amazon commentary

Meta commentary

Shopify commentary

PayPal commentary

UPS commentary

Walmart commentary

#watsonweekly #webinar #amazon #meta #shopify #paypal #ups #walmart

Today on our show:

1. Walmart Continues Its Tear: eCom Growth at 27%
2. Perplexity Abandons Advertising to Maintain User Trust
3. The Great Parcel Reconfiguration No One is Talking About
4. About That 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis

- and finally, The Investor Minute, which contains 5 items this week from the world of venture capital, acquisitions, and IPOs.

Today's episode is sponsored by Mirakl.

https://www.watsonweekly.com/

https://www.youtube.com/@WatsonWeekly

https://www.rmwcommerce.com/ecommerce-podcast-watsonweekly

The retail and fintech worlds are moving faster than a 150-day tariff cycle, and this week, Watson Weekly Weekend edition hosts Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky break down the seismic shifts you can’t afford to ignore. From "sharks in the water" at PayPal to Walmart’s sneaky-good transformation into a tech-first powerhouse, we’re unpacking the data behind the headlines.

Is Stripe about to carve up the "Good Ship PayPal" to fuel its own world domination? And how has Walmart managed to win over the $100k+ crowd while automating its way to record margins? We’re diving deep into the "tale of two cities" in consumer spending and why being "bold" is the only strategy for 2026.

In this episode:

1. The PayPal Pivot: Why Stripe might be circling Venmo and what it means for the future of Stablecoin.
2. Tariff Redo: Navigating the Supreme Court’s recent ruling and why your CFO shouldn't be the one making marketing decisions.
3. Walmart’s Trillion-Dollar Climb: How 72% grocery penetration and automated fulfillment are widening the gap with the competition.
4. Agentic Commerce: Is "Sparky" the real deal or just a higher AOV glitter?.

Subscribe to the Newsletter: Get the deep dives Rick and Jess mention at watsonweekly.com.

Join the Conversation: Are you a "turtle shell" business or are you playing for growth this year? Let us know in the comments.

Stay bold. Stay classy.

Chapters:

0:00 - Welcome to the Watson Weekly Weekend

1:00 - PayPal without a captain

6:29 - Trump Tariff Redux

10:06 - Walmart earnings

10:10 - https://youtu.be/K-IPpyhtwMM

#FintechNews #WalmartEarnings #Stripe #PayPal #EcommerceStrategy #WatsonWeekly #BusinessTrends2026 #SupplyChainInnovation #AgenticCommerce

The "subscription box" era might be over, but the membership era is just beginning.

In this episode, Rick Watson sits down with John Roman, CEO of BattlBox, to pull back the curtain on how they survived the collapse of the 2015 subscription craze to become a powerhouse in the outdoor and survival space.

John shares the unfiltered truth about why he prefers the term' membership' over 'subscription box,' and how shifting the focus to community and content saved their business. We dive deep into their unique content strategy—where 15% of their staff is dedicated to video production—and why John believes every modern brand should function like a media company.

In this episode, you’ll learn:

* The "CrateJoy" Origins: How BattlBox validated product-market fit on a niche marketplace before moving to their current scale.

* The Inventory Nightmare: Why scaling to 10,000+ members requires production runs and forecasting six months out.

* The Content Flywheel: Why 80% of BattlBox’s highest-value customers are regular YouTube viewers.

* Hiring Your Customers: The story of how Brandon (Current 1776), a paying customer, became a full-time face of the brand.

* Data-Driven Leadership: How John’s background as a professional poker player influences his obsession with churn, LTV, and retention.

* The Future of D2C: Why John believes 70-75% of their 2026 revenue will still come from their core membership model.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction to BattlBox and Subscription Box Era

0:58 - Evolution from Subscription Box to Membership

5:00 - Inventory Management Challenges

8:53 - The Power of Content and Community

18:02 - The "Current 1776" Story: Hiring Customers as Creators

22:20 - Data-Driven Leadership and Business Metrics

26:10 Advice for Large Retailers and the Future of D2C

Subscribe to the newsletter at https://www.watsonweekly.com/subscribe

Today on our show:

1. Stripe’s $140 Billion Question
2. Why Temu is the New Cross-Border Standard
3. The UPS $150k Exit: Strategic Rightsizing or a Teamster Trap?
4. Is Agentic Commerce a Nothingburger? The Agentic Debate Series, presented by Logicbroker.

- and finally, The Investor Minute, which contains 5 items this week from the world of venture capital, acquisitions, and IPOs.

Today's episode is sponsored by Mirakl.

https://www.watsonweekly.com/

https://www.youtube.com/@WatsonWeekly

https://www.rmwcommerce.com/ecommerce-podcast-watsonweekly

This week on the Watson Weekly Weekend edition, Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky are breaking down a massive shift in the retail and tech landscape. From the dramatic fall of a luxury giant to Walmart's historic milestone and the high-stakes risks facing Silicon Valley’s finest, we’ve got the insights you need to stay ahead.

We track the "episodic drama" of Saks Global’s decline, from unpaid vendors and empty shelves to the January Chapter 11 filing. We dive into the friction with Amazon and the aggressive store closures impacting Saks Off Fifth and Neiman Marcus.

Walmart has officially joined the elite tech-heavy $1T market cap club. We discuss how their massive investments in supply chain automation and a "dot-com culture" (thanks to the legacy of Jet.com) are now allowing them to outpace Amazon’s e-commerce growth.

FedEx is pivoting away from "tiny cheap shipments" to focus on high-margin sectors like healthcare and aerospace. We look at their Network 2.0 strategy and how they are navigating the rise of de minimus shipments from players like Shein and TikTok Shop.

+⚠️ The Existential Risks of Big Tech

What keeps CEOs up at night? We identify the "one big risk" for the giants:

1. Amazon: Will the $200B AI backlog actually materialize?
2. Shopify: Is a "high-performance sports team" culture sustainable for a 100-year company?
3. Meta: The massive bet on "face computers" and ongoing legal distractions.
4. OpenAI: The "show me the money" moment and the lack of native distribution.

#Retail #Ecommerce #Walmart #SaksGlobal #FedEx #BigTech #Amazon #SupplyChain #WatsonWeekly

Is SaaS really dead? Will AI take your job next year?

In this Watson Weekly Interview, Rick Watson talks with Dr. Daniel Hulme, Chief AI Officer at WPP and CEO of Satalia, to debunk the biggest myths surrounding Artificial Intelligence. From the changing architecture of software to the rise of "Economic Singularity," Dr. Hulme provides a masterclass on how businesses and individuals can navigate the rapidly evolving tech landscape.

We dive deep into:

1. The Future of SaaS: Why LLMs are amplifying—not killing—software.
2. The WPP Open Strategy: How AI unlocked creativity and content creation at scale.
3. Why AI Projects Fail: From "intoxicated graduate" syndrome to the trap of low-hanging fruit.
4. The Job Market: Transitioning from economic disruption to a world of abundance and UBI.
5. GSO (Generative Search Optimization): Move over SEO—learn how to brand your business inside the "brains" of LLMs.

Whether you are a SaaS founder, a marketer, or simply curious about the future of humanity, this conversation offers a grounded, expert perspective on the AI revolution.

1. 0:00 - Introduction to Dr. Daniel Hulme
2. 2:15 - Myth: Is SaaS Dead?
3. 5:40 - The 3-Layer Architecture of Modern Software
4. 8:20 - How WPP Open uses AI for Creative & Content
5. 12:45 - 5 Reasons Your AI Initiative Will Fail
6. 18:30 - AI vs. Jobs: The Path to Economic Singularity
7. 23:10 - Universal Basic Income and the Future of Work
8. 26:50 - Introduction to Generative Search Optimization (GSO)
9. 30:00 - Closing Thoughts: Living Your "True Humanity"

#AI #SaaS #FutureOfWork #WPP #MachineLearning #GenerativeAI #TechTrends