Welcome to this weekend edition of Watson Weekly with Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky! Today, we’re breaking down the biggest moves in retail and e-commerce from the past week..

We start with Target’s latest earnings, where a 1.7% dip in net sales has triggered a major turnaround strategy focused on beauty, food, and the Target Circle 360 premium membership. Then, we dive into Shopify’s investor event to discuss Agentic Commerce—is AI the new front door for online shopping?

Finally, we analyze the massive $50 billion investment/partnership between Amazon and OpenAI. Why is Amazon mandating the use of its Trainium chips, and what does this mean for the future of AWS?

The Watson Weekly Weekend edition is sponsored by Avalara.

Key Chapters

0:00 - Introduction

0:49 - Target Earnings: Sales Slump & The 2026 Turnaround

6:09 - Shopify’s Agentic Commerce Front Door

9:50 - Amazon & OpenAI: The $110 Billion Funding Round

#retailtech #Amazon #OpenAI #Shopify #TargetEarnings #EcommerceNews #AICommerce #AWS #WatsonWeekly

The dust has settled on Q4 and full-year 2025, and the numbers tell a fascinating story about the future of how we buy, ship, and sell. From Amazon’s record-breaking AWS growth to Walmart laying down the gauntlet, we are diving deep into the ripple effects these giants are creating across the entire ecosystem.

In this episode, Rick Watson breaks down the split personalities of Meta, the agentic jump ball between Shopify and Stripe, and why UPS finds itself in an incredibly tight spot between Amazon and union contracts. Whether you’re a David moving fast or a Goliath trying to transform, these are the trends you cannot afford to ignore.

Inside the Briefing

1. Amazon’s AI & Grocery Bet: Online stores are a $278 billion business. While physical retail has struggled, Amazon is doubling down on Whole Foods with a 20% increase in store count. Meanwhile, they are pouring $200 billion into capital expenditure, primarily for data centers and chips to fuel their AI driver.
2. The Walmart Juggernaut: Walmart is executing at an elite level, with 60% of stores now using automated freight and 50% of e-commerce shipments being automated. Their membership and ads business has scaled significantly, reaching one-third of Amazon’s operating profit.
3. The Shopify/Stripe Power Couple: Shopify saw a 30% revenue increase to $11.5 billion. Their B2B sector is a hidden gem, growing 96%. Notably, 64 cents of every dollar in Shopify’s merchant services business goes to their partner, Stripe.
4. Meta’s $83 Billion Gamble: Meta’s advertising business remains highly profitable with a 30% operating margin, but the Reality Labs division has lost $83 billion to date. Mark Zuckerberg is betting that smart glasses will be a cognitive necessity within five years.
5. UPS & PayPal in Transition: UPS is facing a massive volume decline as Amazon moves a million parcels a day away from their network. PayPal is currently described as a ship without a rudder, with rumors circulating that the company—or its crown jewel, Venmo—could be headed for a sale.

The biggest risk right now isn't being small; it's being a giant that cannot move. If you're an underdog, use your speed to your advantage because you can move faster than the incumbents.

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Huge thanks to our sponsors:

1. Avalara: The gold standard in tax and compliance solutions.
2. Kasama: A premier software integrator and agency.

Chapters:

Introduction

Amazon commentary

Meta commentary

Shopify commentary

PayPal commentary

UPS commentary

Walmart commentary

#watsonweekly #webinar #amazon #meta #shopify #paypal #ups #walmart

Today on our show:

1. Walmart Continues Its Tear: eCom Growth at 27%
2. Perplexity Abandons Advertising to Maintain User Trust
3. The Great Parcel Reconfiguration No One is Talking About
4. About That 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis

- and finally, The Investor Minute, which contains 5 items this week from the world of venture capital, acquisitions, and IPOs.

Today's episode is sponsored by Mirakl.

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