In this week’s episode of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast, we unpack a tidal wave of economic data that’s painting a clear — and sobering — picture for Canada’s housing and financial landscape. The big headline? There will be no rate cut in July. Inflation is ticking up again, job numbers came in scorching hot, and bond yields are surging — all of which are keeping fixed mortgage rates in the uncomfortable mid-4% range.

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We begin with an announcement for homeowners: our team is hosting a live webinar that breaks down how Bill 44 (the Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing Initiative) is reshaping Vancouver’s real estate game. With over 700 building permits already submitted between Vancouver and Burnaby and projects under construction right now, homeowners can now partner with developers, leverage new zoning allowances, and walk away with up to $1 million more than a traditional home sale. Curious? We’ll show you real numbers, real case studies, and a clear step-by-step process on how to get involved. Register at www.thevancouverlife.com/multiplex

Next, we highlight the launch of our latest project, Sarena, a new 7-unit boutique townhome development in Richmond. Each 3-bed, 3-bath home is priced under $1M, allowing first-time buyers to claim the GST rebate while enjoying private outdoor space, timeless design, and air conditioning. Visit SarenaLiving.com for details.

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On the macro side, Canada’s June jobs report beat expectations, adding 83,100 jobs instead of the predicted 3,000 loss. While impressive on paper, most were part-time roles. Youth unemployment remains stuck at 14.2%, and wage growth continues to outpace inflation. Speaking of inflation — it’s back up to 1.9%, and core measures remain sticky. That’s why bond markets are pricing in zero chance of a July rate cut.

We then shift to the June housing data for Canada: home sales are up modestly month-over-month and year-over-year, especially in the GTA. Inventory is hovering just below long-term averages, and national home prices are down only 1.3% year-over-year. It’s what we call a "flatline market" — stable, slow-moving, and possibly already past the bottom of this cycle.

Toronto gets its own spotlight. While condo prices are down 22% from peak and back to March 2021 levels, cash flow metrics are improving. Negative carry is down from -$950/month to -$300, and factoring in mortgage pay down, investors are now in slightly positive territory. Still, sales are tepid and inventory is high — a tipping point is coming, but we’re not there yet.

Then comes the gut punch: Toronto’s pre-sale condo market is collapsing. Q2 saw only 502 new condo sales — a shocking 91% below the 10-year average. Over 4,300 units have been cancelled since 2024, and inventory has ballooned to 60 months of unsold stock. Developers are pulling back, new launches are rare, and some are converting to rentals to stay afloat.

This episode is a wake-up call and a roadmap — whether you’re a homeowner, investor, or buyer, understanding what’s happening beneath the headlines is critical to making informed real estate decisions in 2025.

👉 Register for our free webinar at www.thevancouverlife.com/multiplex
👉 Explore Richmond’s newest townhomes at SarenaLiving.com

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Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Even with high interest rates, record-breaking mortgage renewals, a historic surge in pre-sale inventory, and the highest resale listings we've seen in over a decade, Vancouver real estate prices haven’t crashed. Over the past 12 months, prices have only declined 2.8%, and though they’re down 7% from the peak three years ago, they’re still up 12% compared to five years ago.

So, the obvious question is: Why?

Why have home prices remained so stable—especially when consumer sentiment is low, lending standards are tighter than ever, and the economic outlook feels bleak? The answer lies in a series of critical financial indicators that reveal the underlying resilience of the Canadian housing market.

Let’s start with household net worth, which reached a record $17.7 trillion in Q1 2025, up 0.8% in the quarter and a staggering 82% over the last decade. Debt-to-disposable income has improved to 172%—a 10-year low—and the debt servicing ratio is down from last year’s peak. Most significantly, Canada’s asset-to-debt ratio now stands at $6.68 to $1, near all-time highs. This means Canadians, on average, hold six times more assets than they owe in debt.

This growing wealth has profound implications. Over 50% of Vancouver homes are mortgage-free. And when sellers don't get their desired price, they’re increasingly choosing to delist rather than drop their asking price. In May, delistings jumped 47% year-over-year. This is not a market where sellers are forced to capitulate—many are simply choosing to wait.

That said, this resilience doesn’t reflect the experience of younger Canadians. Homeownership remains elusive, and as Boomers eventually look to sell, there’s real concern about whether younger buyers will have the purchasing power to step in—unless wealth starts being more evenly distributed.

Even insolvency data suggests a market in transition. While consumer insolvencies fell 2.6% in May, they’re still 7.6% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Business insolvencies are down 13.3% year-over-year, indicating stabilization, but we’re far from robust economic health.

And a deeper divide is growing. The Bank of Canada’s latest vulnerability report shows the highest share of delinquent borrowers in a decade—now at 2.6%. People are skipping payments on retail installment loans, credit cards, and car loans before defaulting on their mortgage or HELOC. This reflects rising stress among middle-income Canadians, the group that drives the broader economy—and that stress is slowing GDP and pushing unemployment higher.

Meanwhile, developers are facing their own struggles. But a recent win: the BC government now allows 75% of development fees to be deferred until occupancy, easing the upfront financial burden. In Burnaby, for example, that could mean deferring up to $375,000 on a sixplex—money that can be used to fund construction instead.

This episode breaks it all down: the financial landscape, the market psychology, the policy shifts, and what it all means for buyers, sellers, renters, and developers. Whether you’re navigating the market today or preparing for what’s next—this is a must-watch.

Subscribe for more Vancouver real estate insights, and don’t forget to check the links in the description for how to connect with us directly!

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

In this week’s Vancouver real estate update, we dive into the latest data and indicators painting a complex picture of the market. We start with the Housing Affordability Index, a measure of median household income against mortgage payments, taxes, and utilities. According to this index, Canadian homes have never actually been considered affordable—not once in the last 40 years. The most affordable period came in the late 1990s, when the metric dipped to 34%, just shy of the “ideal” target of 33%. Today, affordability sits at 55%. While that’s a meaningful improvement from the record high of 63.5% in Q4 2023, it still remains well above the threshold of sustainable home ownership.

Interestingly, Canadian affordability is now at the same level it was in 1990—just before a decade-long improvement in affordability followed. Whether or not that trend repeats remains to be seen. RBC’s latest forecast doesn’t think so. They project affordability will bottom later this year around 52%, then begin worsening again in 2026.

On the inflation front, May CPI came in at 1.7%, unchanged from April. This marks the 18th consecutive month within the Bank of Canada’s 1–3% target range. Core inflation registered at 2.9%, the upper end of the band but still acceptable. Mortgage interest costs remain a key driver, adding 0.4% to the CPI. It’s important to note that most other countries exclude mortgage interest from their inflation basket. Without it, Canada’s inflation would have been closer to 1.3%. Rented accommodations contributed 0.3%, but StatsCan’s data appears to lag. While they report rents up 4.3% annually, Rentals.ca shows a 3.3% decline in the last year.

Turning to interest rate expectations: markets are only pricing in a 30% chance of a rate cut at the July 30th Bank of Canada meeting. And as of now, there is just one more rate cut expected for the remainder of 2025. That outlook has cooled considerably, given earlier projections of more aggressive easing.

Now to the July 2025 housing stats. Total home sales in Greater Vancouver hit 2,186 units in June, down 9.5% from last year and a staggering 26% below the 10-year average. It was the second slowest June on record—worse than the Global Financial Crisis and COVID shutdowns. This follows what was already the slowest May on record. The spring market never materialized, and current indicators suggest a muted summer and fall ahead.

New listings reached 6,301 in June, up 10% year-over-year but down 5% from May. Inventory sits at 16,852 active listings, down 1% month-over-month but still 19% higher than a year ago and 44% above the 10-year average. At the time of reporting, inventory has climbed to over 18,200 active listings. The Sales-to-Active-Listings ratio remains at 13%—signaling a balanced market—for the 13th straight month. Detached homes are at 10%, townhomes at 17%, and condos at 14%.

Prices continue to slide. The Home Price Index (HPI) dropped for the third straight month in 2025, down 0.3% month-over-month to $1,173,100. That puts prices 2.8% lower than one year ago. The median price stayed flat at $985,000, but remains up $70,000 year-to-date. The average price rose $9,000 to $1,275,000, its highest point in 2025, and up $68,000 YTD.

The Vancouver housing market remains stable but sluggish and perhaps increasingly so. Affordability is slowly improving but remains historically poor

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com