Live from Washington, DC, this episode unpacks how war, AI, financial innovation, and global institutions are reshaping monetary policy, market stability, and the future of the international economic order.

Host:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

Guest:

William C. Dudley, Chair, Bretton Woods Committee; Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

We discuss:

• Whether monetary policy can still do the heavy lifting in a war-shaken macro environment.
• AI, productivity, and the inflation debate.
• The future of the Fed as an institution.
• The rise of non-bank finance and new financial stability risks.
• How global financial institutions and digital finance must adapt to structural change.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, “War Darkens Global Economic Outlook and Reshapes Policy Priorities,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)

“Chair Powell’s Press Conference”

The Bretton Woods Committee

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks cohost Sebastian Mallaby’s new book The Infinity Machine and answers audience questions on AI, dollar dominance, the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on midterm elections, and more.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss:

• Demis Hassabis as a key architect of modern AI and the force behind DeepMind.
• AI’s upside in medicine and science, especially through AlphaFold and faster drug discovery.
• The tension between building powerful AI quickly and making it safe.
• Why the biggest AI winners may be the ones that turn models into useful products.
• Why the dollar still dominates, even as China and Europe look for ways to challenge it.
• How Trump’s foreign policy decisions on the Middle East and immigration could sway voters in the upcoming midterm elections.
• How drones and supply chain choke points are reshaping global conflict.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode dives into how the opaque growth and structural risks in private credit, combined with global supply shocks and market stress spurred by the Iran war, are creating a uniquely fragile and unpredictable economic landscape.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss:

• The rapid rise of private credit, its lack of transparency, and why recent bankruptcies are raising red flags.
• How $10 billion in redemption requests were submitted to major private credit funds in the first quarter of 2026—including major funds Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone.
• Why this moment isn’t a repeat of 2008, but still presents real risks due to government debt levels and the lack of safety nets for private credit.
• As Rebecca Patterson, CFR senior fellow, puts it: “No one has any idea what’s going to happen—and that’s exactly the challenge right now.”
• Current structural risks in private credit, including liquidity mismatches, redemption limits (“gates”), and growing exposure to retail investors.
• Why financial markets are behaving unusually, with rising bond yields and weakening traditional safe-haven assets.
• How central banks are stuck between fighting inflation and supporting growth, creating a far more complex policy environment than past crises.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House

Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.

The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.