In this episode of The Negotiation, host Todd Embley is joined by Mark Kruger, a Senior Fellow at the Yicai Research Institute, Centre for International Governance Innovation, and the University of Alberta’s China Institute. Formerly with the Bank of Canada for three decades, Mark now resides in Shanghai and writes regularly for Yicai Global, where he offers clear, data-driven analysis on China’s economy. In today’s episode, Todd and Mark dig into China’s macroeconomic outlook in the wake of proposed new tariffs from Donald Trump and why Mark believes the country’s 5% growth target remains achievable despite external pressure.

The conversation explores Mark’s recent columns, including “Is China’s 5 Percent GDP Growth Credible?” He shares insights into the resilience of the Chinese economy, fiscal and monetary policy expectations, consumer confidence trends, and the ongoing property sector adjustment. Mark also weighs in on how Canada should navigate its own economic relationship with China during a time of rising global protectionism.

Stay tuned for a sharp, timely conversation with one of the most thoughtful observers of China’s economic evolution.

Discussion Points:

• Why Trump’s tariffs may not derail China’s 5% GDP growth target
• Signs of strength in China’s Q1 economic data
• The resilience of Chinese consumer confidence
• How China’s export profile is becoming more diversified
• Potential fiscal and monetary responses from Beijing to rising trade tensions
• The role of infrastructure investment and new manufacturing sectors in bolstering growth
• The status and long-term management of China’s property sector
• Canada’s strategic positioning in the context of US-China trade tensions
• Key risks and tailwinds shaping China’s medium-term economic outlook
• What foreign businesses should keep in mind when interpreting China’s economic trajectory

In Part 2 of our conversation with Rui Ma on The Negotiation podcast, we explore the evolving consumer tech and innovation landscape in China beyond AI. Rui shares her analysis on the rise of local life services, humanoid robotics, and China's dominance in electric vehicles—highlighting the factors propelling growth and the remaining roadblocks.

We also zoom out to explore the broader dynamics between the U.S. and China’s tech ecosystems. Rui discusses rising tensions, how media and policy shape U.S. perceptions of Chinese tech, and whether meaningful collaboration is still possible.

Finally, Rui reflects on the future of China tech and whether she still believes—as she’s said before—that “the next China is China.” Listen for sharp insights, fresh perspectives, and a grounded look at where things might be headed.

Discussion Points:

• The transformation of China’s consumer tech and local life services landscape
• China's rise in the EV market and what’s fueling it
• The state of humanoid robotics in China vs. the U.S.
• U.S. public and governmental attitudes toward Chinese tech
• How geopolitical tensions are creating siloed ecosystems
• The role of Western media in shaping perceptions of Chinese innovation
• Strategies for fostering cooperation and countering bias
• Rui’s long-term outlook for China’s tech sector

In this episode of The Negotiation, we’re joined once again by Jacob Cooke, Co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies. Jacob walks us through the key insights from WPIC’s latest data report profiling the fastest-growing consumer segments in China’s e-commerce market. Drawing from GMV data across Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin, the report reveals a story of recovery, consumer optimism, and evolving channel strategies.

Jacob kicks off with an overview of China’s current consumption environment, highlighting a return of consumer confidence fueled by government stimulus, higher disposable incomes, and a willingness to spend. He then breaks down performance across platforms, noting the rapid rise of Douyin and Xiaohongshu, and explaining how brands should adapt to a more fragmented, omnichannel landscape.

We then dive into category-specific insights, from the booming beauty and fashion sectors to the rise of experiential consumption, pet care premiumization, and the ongoing expansion of health and wellness products. Jacob also discusses growth in outdoor and active lifestyle categories, with impressive gains in cycling, hiking, and ski gear.

Stay tuned for an insight-packed discussion that challenges the doom-and-gloom narrative and positions China as a dynamic and essential market for global brands.

Discussion Points

• Why consumer confidence is rebounding in China—and what that means for international brands
• Platform performance: Tmall and JD’s staying power vs. Douyin’s rise in social commerce
• Xiaohongshu’s triple-digit growth trajectory and strategic role for brand discovery
• Beauty and fashion trends: science-backed skincare, expressive makeup, men’s grooming
• The suitcase boom: post-pandemic travel + lifestyle trends = experiential consumption
• What’s fueling China’s demand for fish oil, vitamin B, and dietary fiber
• Outdoor gear goes mainstream: cycling, skiing, hiking, and the crossover with fashion
• Premiumization in pet care: what’s behind the $11.2B market
• Rising spend in the mother and baby category despite falling birth rates
• Key takeaways for brands: adopt an omnichannel, data-driven strategy for growth