2026 Land Market Outlook with Jeramy Stephens, National Land Realty

Few people in the land industry see more deals in a year than Jeramy Stephens. As compliance director at National Land Realty, he has eyes on roughly 1,700 to 2,000 transactions annually across Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Missouri, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Ohio. In this conversation, Jeramy breaks down what the land market actually looks like heading into 2026, from the squeeze tariffs and rising input costs are putting on Arkansas rice and cotton farmers, to the correction happening in rural mountain properties bought at inflated COVID-era prices. He covers why premium farmland and high-quality duck hunting ground remain surprisingly strong, how the generational transfer of wealth is quietly fueling land purchases, and why the land market is always the last asset class to move when broader economic uncertainty hits.

Talk to Jeramy Stephens

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/jeramy-stephens

Visit National Land Realty to see our listings

https://www.nationalland.com

California's agricultural land market is unlike anywhere else in the country, and right now it's navigating two forces at once: collapsing commodity prices for specialty crops like almonds and pistachios, and sweeping groundwater pumping restrictions that are rewriting land values from the ground up. Brian Neufeld, a land agent based in California's Central Valley with licenses across Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, breaks down what those forces mean for buyers and sellers heading into 2026. He covers how water supply has become the first question every buyer asks, why some properties have sat unsold while sellers wait for a market that may not return, and where hidden value exists in so-called "white land" areas with restricted water delivery. For investors willing to do the underwriting work, Brian sees opportunity in a market that is painful today but structurally limited in supply long term.

Talk to Brian Neufeld

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/brian-neufeld

Visit National Land Realty to see our listings

https://www.nationalland.com

What does the agricultural land market really look like heading into 2026? Shannon Schlachter, a land agent based in Holyoke, Colorado, just 14 miles from the Nebraska border, breaks down current conditions across northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Shannon covers why dry land acre prices have softened from $2,200 toward the $1,950 to $2,000 range, how high input costs, 9% operating note interest rates, and drought conditions are creating widespread buyer hesitation, and why FSA relief payments could be the catalyst that jumpstarts activity in Q2. She also outlines three distinct seller profiles emerging in this market and explains why, for patient investors, this valley in land values may represent a genuine buying opportunity before appreciation returns.

Talk to Shannon!

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/shannon-schlachter

Visit National Land Realty to see out Land for Sale

https://www.nationalland.com

Oklahoma land broker Dillon Smith returns to The National Land Podcast for a boots-on-the-ground update on the western Oklahoma land market — and delivers the kind of straight talk that only comes from an agent who's actually closing deals. Based in Kingfisher, Dillon breaks down exactly what's moving and what's sitting: cattle pasture is gaining value on the back of a red-hot beef market, wheat ground is softening as input costs outpace grain prices, and recreational hunting land is holding steady for the right tracts in the right spots.

The central theme of this episode is pricing discipline. Dillon explains why overpriced listings are stalling out across the board, how he handles the hard conversation with sellers who bought at peak prices and now expect peak returns, and why he believes western Oklahoma has shifted into a buyer's market — where pricing correctly isn't optional, it's the whole ballgame. He also digs into highest-and-best-use analysis, water access as a rising factor in land value near Oklahoma City's suburbs, and the land improvements (ponds, fences, access roads) that are actually moving the needle for sellers.

Whether you're buying, selling, or holding farmland, ranch ground, or hunting property in Oklahoma or anywhere in the rural Midwest, Dillon's practical advice on market timing, seller expectations, and broker pricing opinions is the kind of insight that helps you make better land decisions.

Talk to Dillon Smith

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/dillon-smith

Visit National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

Farmer Mac’s Jackson Takach returns with a title update and a clear read on the new USDA outlook. He unpacks why USDA revised 2025 net cash farm income down by about 30 billion dollars, then sets 2026 at 158 billion dollars with roughly 44 billion dollars of support payments, about 30 percent of profits. Inputs are still high for grains and oilseeds, while protein sectors benefit from cheaper feed and steady demand. Land values look similar to 2025 with strength in cattle and recreational areas, caution in the Delta, and water-sensitive pockets out West. Jackson closes with rate risk, fertilizer and trade wildcards, and a simple plan for producers to time operating, intermediate, and long-term debt.

Farmer Mac

https://www.farmermac.com/

The Feed

https://www.farmermac.com/news-events/the-feed/

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

• USDA pegs 2026 net cash farm income at about 158 billion dollars after marking 2025 down by roughly 30 billion, with about 44 billion coming from support programs.

• Grains and oilseeds face tight margins from high inputs and softer prices, while cattle, hogs, and poultry see better profitability on lower feed costs and solid demand.

• Farmland outlook echoes 2025: firmer in cattle and recreation zones and near metros, softer pressure in the Delta across soybeans, cotton, and rice, and localized water risks in the West.

• Financial health remains okay at the sector level with lower debt-to-asset ratios and easing short-term interest expense, though planning matters.

• Key swing factors for 2026 include fertilizer supply, trade flows, drought, and biofuels demand; producers should set a written plan for operating, intermediate, and long-term debt.

• Farmer Mac updates: earnings call on February 19, quarterly webinars, The Feed, and a Farmland Price Index based on actual trades coming soon.

Morse Nursery’s Tim Mills and National Land Realty agent Jacob Jenkins explain how to “row crop” hardwoods with proven genetics, tree tubes, and tight management to create reliable timber and wildlife results. From West Lafayette, Indiana, Morse grows grafted fruit and nut trees and supplies Tree Pro tubes that speed straight, tall growth. They cover black walnut and white oak veneer genetics, blight-resistant American hybrid chestnuts that bear in 3 to 5 years, planting densities of 100 to 125 trees per acre on 20-foot centers, and why weed control and pruning discipline make or break a planting. For hunters, they map staggered drop times across apples, persimmons, and chestnuts to hold deer after surrounding crops are harvested. For investors, Tim outlines chestnut orchard math at maturity around year 15, with 2,000 to 3,000 pounds per acre and common wholesale pricing near 4 dollars per pound, while guiding to a conservative target near 6,000 dollars per acre.

Morse Nursery:

https://morsenursery.com/

Talk with Jacob Jenkins:

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/jacob-jenkins

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

Forester and timber consultant Kraig Moore (KY/TN) breaks down the 2025 hardwood landscape: prices up roughly 3% YoY overall (net flat after inflation), sharp species splits (yellow-poplar +~20%, sugar maple +20–30%, white oak −~11% YoY but +~52% over 5 years; walnut +~85% over 5 years), and fragile mill capacity after 100+ sawmill closures in two years. He explains how tariffs, China’s historic pull for ~40% of U.S. lumber, and production shifting to Vietnam (labor ~⅓ cheaper than China) are reshaping demand. For landowners, the play is smart silviculture, competition-driven quality, patch clear-cuts/group selection, avoiding diameter-limit cuts, and aligning to mills within ~60–90 miles, to grow value and keep white oak (bourbon barrel essential) regenerating amid maple/beech pressure. Kentucky is ~50% forested, and with interest rates easing and housing starts improving, Kraig is cautiously bullish on hardwoods as a diversification pillar.

Episode takeaways:

• Market snapshot: Hardwood prices ~+3% YoY overall (inflation-adjusted ≈ flat), with big winners (yellow-poplar, sugar maple) and laggards (hickory; white oak down YoY but strong 5-yr trend; walnut dominant long-term).

• Capacity risk: 100+ sawmills gone in two years; if demand pops, supply could choke, pushing prices up fast.

• Trade shift: China historically bought ~40% of U.S. lumber/logs; tariffs drove processing to Vietnam (labor ~⅓ cheaper than China), altering log vs. lumber economics.

• Profit strategy for landowners: Manage for competition (natural pruning/straightness), use patch clear-cuts/group selection, avoid diameter-limit cuts, and time sales to species cycles.

• Operational realities: Best ROI when mills are within ~60–90 miles; steep terrain or helicopter logging crush margins.

• White oak future: Main challenge is regeneration, not overharvest, control shade-tolerant maple/beech, open canopy on the right aspects, and keep foresters involved.

Talk to Kraig Moore: https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/kraig-moore

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

University of Georgia’s David Dickens and National Land Realty forester-agent Steve Chapman break down how pine straw turns timberland into a cash-flowing asset before the first thinning. For longleaf stands, raking can often start around age 12–15 and run 5–10 seasons, commonly paying about $150–$250 per acre on cutover sites and $250–$400 per acre on old-field sites, with first-year old-field rakes sometimes higher. At 100 acres and $300 per acre, that is roughly $30,000 a year and up to $300,000 before a first cut. They cover species fit (longleaf leads, slash limited, loblolly has no straw value), contract traps to avoid, CRP limits, and how herbicide, spacing, and canopy closure drive straw yield.

Episode takeaways:

• Longleaf pine is the primary straw species; raking usually begins at age 12–15 once canopy closure suppresses understory, then repeats annually for 5–10 years.

• Typical annual payments: about $150–$250 per acre on cutover sites and $250–$400 per acre on old-field sites; an example 100-acre tract at $300 per acre yields about $30,000 per year pre-thinning.

• Sell straw by the acre, not by the bale; define terms if you must do bale pricing and expect year-to-year yield swings.

• Manage for clean floors and tree health: foliar-only herbicide every few years, avoid excessive raking in arid areas, watch nutrient export and moisture loss that can invite beetles on marginal sands.

• Thinning resets raking in Georgia; most contractors prefer thinned stands, so plan to harvest straw before the first thinning window.

• CRP wildlife contracts generally prohibit raking during the term; prescribed fire is fine but schedule it 2–3 years ahead of the first rake.

Dr. David Dickens

https://warnell.uga.edu/directory/people/dr-david-dickens

Talk to Steve Chapman about your land!

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/steve-chapman

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com