Market Watch Q3: Tariffs, Tight Margins, & Midwest Bankruptcies

Farm margins are tight and the headlines aren’t lying—tariffs, fertilizer and machinery costs, and labor constraints are hitting producers. Jackson Takach (Farmer Mac) breaks down what’s signal vs. noise.

What we cover:

• Tariffs 101: Section 301 (unfair trade), 232 (national security), and IEEPA actions (the biggest bucket and under legal challenge). Why these hit steel/aluminum and fertilizer components—and how that flows to implement and input prices.

• Costs that pay back vs. pure drag: seed tech and risk-reduction can be worth it; fertilizer, machinery and labor are harder to offset—2026 looks tighter than 2025.

• Adaptation that actually helps: proven tech + regenerative practices to reduce input reliance.

• Bankruptcies: Chapter 12 filings are up in Arkansas and Nebraska—rising from 2023–24 lows back toward 2018–20 levels.

• Regional stress drivers: soy/rice/cotton marketing pain and flooding in AR; feedlot squeeze and weaker soy export pull in NE.

• Policy + relief: ongoing US–China trade talks; ~$15–20B of prior-year USDA aid still to deploy; Farm Bill politics and PLC “facelift” dynamics.

• Opportunities: growing global protein demand, renewable diesel/SAF, and more U.S. soybean crush capacity.

• Labor & immigration: H‑2A works for seasonal crops; year‑round gaps push automation.

• AI’s real role: better data sense‑making and lending workflows—not replacing credit decisions.

• Land values: Midwest stabilizing/slipping, Southeast firming, West = water‑dependent. Introducing the Farmland Price Index (Farmer Mac × AcreValue) built on transactions, not surveys.

Farmer Mac

https://www.farmermac.com/

The Feed - Farmland Price Index (By Farmer Mac)

https://farmermac.com/thefeed/q2-2025-farmland-price-index-update/

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com