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The Market Call

The Market Call

De: Progressive Equity Research
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A periodic summary of major macro events, market themes and selected UK company-specific news.© 2025 Progressive Equity Research Economía Finanzas Personales Política y Gobierno
Episodios
  • Week Ending 14/11/2025 - When does the UK get a government shutdown?
    Nov 14 2025

    Jeremy and Gareth discuss the week's events, with a greater focus on the UK, following the Reeves bombshell overnight that she has pivoted away from her previous indication that she would raise income tax for the first time in 50 years at the upcoming Budget on November 26th.

    This suggestion across most front pages today has thrown the gilts and the value of the pound into some turmoil.

    Meanwhile, in the US, the government is reopening, but to the realisation that continuing to borrow without spending has exacerbated tight dollar liquidity, as evidenced by the sharp fall in Bitcoin.

    We are entering a more volatile market phase amid the absence of official US government data on October's employment and inflation. Essentially, investors must fly blind through a period of stormy weather. What could go wrong?

    In the UK equity market, despite the politics, things are looking incrementally better, with the IPO market showing signs of fully opening up.

    Gareth highlights FDM and Jeremy 4imprint as examples of how to cope with difficult times and manage expectations. Both companies had inline or marginal upgrades, and their share prices responded strongly.

    Looking ahead, with the US remaining quiet, it's about inflation data from the UK and Japan, both high and sticky, and increasingly problematic.

    Investors in the UK will be on the latest developments from the rumour mill at No. 11. In the US, investors will be looking for unofficial signs that the authorities might be prepared to loosen conditions to ease the impact of the shutdown.

    Brought to you by Progressive Equity.


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    15 m
  • Week Ending 07/11/2025 - Fireworks postponed
    Nov 7 2025

    This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss a relatively calm week in the markets - China and the USA have reached a deal of sorts, the USD is slightly stronger but not so strong as to cause trouble elsewhere. The Fed is confused (and will be careful, likely meaning rates staying higher) because America remains in Federal shutdown and data is scarce. Still, US equity markets remain robust, and Elon Musk is rejoicing at his trillion-dollar deal.


    The UK, however, is still quaking at the impending budget, with so many possible taxes discussed that they can't all be needed...there may even be relief once the bad news is out. Trainline's results looked solid, but Tim Martin at Wetherspoon used a trading update as a platform to berate the government on everything from corporate regulation to nuclear power.


    Next week - and perhaps many weeks to come - will see the US Supreme Court deliberate the legality of Trump's tariffs...so this week's lack of fireworks may be a postponement rather than a cancellation. What will happen when Liberation Day meets its own Judgement Day...?

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    15 m
  • Week Ending 31/10/2025 - The AI boom & why net zero must die!
    Oct 31 2025

    Jeremy and Gareth discussed the week's main market news, starting with the historic meeting between Trump and Xi, and praised Treasury Secretary Bessent for his role in positioning the market.

    The Fed FOMC delivered a hawkish rate cut, which sent markets higher; however, things might get more uncertain as the US government shutdown starts to affect the collection of macroeconomic data for future releases.

    They also discuss the improved prospects for Javier Milei to deliver his small-state solution in Argentina, following a surprisingly positive congressional midterm election result.

    Meanwhile, the Mag Seven US mega tech companies continue their remarkable rise, with Nvidia still the clear winner. And the primary constraint on these tech titans' ambitions is reliable baseload energy, so it was unsurprising that Bill Gates and the UK government are signalling a retreat from specific net-zero policies and targets.

    Finally, the backdrop and outlook for the UK's stock market is looking and feeling more positive than perhaps was feared only a few weeks ago, ahead of next month's Budget. A string of IPOs and anecdotal evidence, including the update from broker Cavendish, suggests we could have a better run into year-end after the Budget is out of the way.

    Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

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    15 m
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