Host Alex Evans is joined by David Steven, a senior fellow at the UN Foundation, senior fellow at NYU’s Center on International Cooperation, and Managing Director of River Path Associates. Longtime collaborators, Alex and David reflect on the "Long Crisis Scenarios" they developed during the pandemic and discuss how those ideas have fared five years on.

Key Topics:

- David’s path to international work
- Four key global risks: acute shocks, long-term stresses, deliberate disruption and folly, ignorance, neglect.
- Layers of crisis unfolding at different speeds
- The Four Long Crisis Scenarios Revisited: “Rise of the Oligarchs”, “Big Mother, “Fragile, Resilient”, “Winning Ugly”
- Reflections on risk, governance and international institutions
- The United Nations and the future of multilateralism
- Reasons to be hopeful

People:

David Steven is a seasoned analyst and consultant specialising in global governance, crisis management, and international cooperation. With experience advising the UN, World Bank, governments and more, David brings insight from decades working on global issues, policy papers, and scenario planning alongside Alex.

Alex Evans is the founder and Executive Director of Larger Us. He’s also a Visiting Professor in Practice at Newcastle University’s School of Arts and Cultures, a Senior Fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, and the author of "The Myth Gap: What Happens When Evidence and Arguments Aren’t Enough?" (Penguin, 2017). Alex is a former Campaign Director at Avaaz, where he ran campaigns on areas including Brexit. He’s also been a political adviser, including for two UK Secretaries of State for International Development and in the UN Secretary-General’s office.

Resources and Further Reading:

The Long Crisis Scenarios, Local Trust
Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalisation, Brookings Institution
Shooting the rapids: multilateralism and global risks, The Global Dashboard

Alex Evans speaks to Miriam Juan-Torres González, a leading expert on polarisation, democracy and belonging. They discuss the evolution of political polarisation since 2016, the rise of authoritarian populism and strategies for building bridges and defending democracy in turbulent times. Miriam shares insights from her research and real-world examples of successful civic campaigns, offering practical advice for anyone passionate about positive change.

Key Topics:

- Issue-based vs affective polarisation and the global landscape.
- The role of the political right and left in driving polarisation. When it can be a necessary strategy for justice.
- The importance of focusing on authoritarianism and democracy.
- The pitfalls of mainstream parties adopting far-right rhetoric. Alternative strategies for centrist governments.
- Relational organising, deep canvassing, and bridge-building.
- Do labels like “fascism” and “radical right” describe current political trends?
- The importance of electoral and grassroots strategies in defending democracy.
- A new vision of democracy.
- Integrating bridge-building with justice.

People:

Míriam Juan-Torres González is an expert on authoritarian populism, polarisation and human rights. She is Head of Research at OBI's Democracy & Belonging Forum at UC Berkeley, and advisor to Our Common Home and teaches at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. She is the co-author of “Hidden Tribes: A Study of America’s Polarized Landscape” and the lead author of “Britain’s Choice: Common Ground and Division in 2020s Britain". She is also co-chair of the Board of the Belong Network.

Alex Evans is the founder and Executive Director of Larger Us. He’s also a Visiting Professor in Practice at Newcastle University’s School of Arts and Cultures, a Senior Fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, and the author of "The Myth Gap: What Happens When Evidence and Arguments Aren’t Enough?" (Penguin, 2017). Alex is a former Campaign Director at Avaaz, where he ran campaigns on areas including Brexit. He’s also been a political adviser, including for two UK Secretaries of State for International Development and in the UN Secretary-General’s office.

Resources & Further Reading:

Chris Armitage’s blog on racism.
Corrine Fowler’s interview on the Larger Us podcast
Alex Evan's article on Radical Love and Depolarisation
Hidden Tribes (US) report
Britain’s Choice (UK) report
Research by Maria Stephan and Erica Chenoweth on nonviolent resistance
The Othering and Belonging Institute’s work on targeted universalism

Subscribe for more conversations on navigating turbulent times and building a brighter future. Music by Fogheart, with permission.

Alex Evans welcomes Adam Kahane - renowned facilitator, author, and expert in scenario planning and system transformation. Adam shares insights from his experience of scenario planning as part of peace processes in South Africa and Colombia, discusses the power of stories in shaping the future, and helps us discover practical habits which can create positive change in complex systems.

Key moments:

- Adam’s journey from Shell’s scenario team to global peace-building and system change
- The Mont Fleur scenarios: bringing together divided groups in South Africa to imagine possible futures
- The power of stories and metaphors in scenario planning
- Building trust in polarised environments
- The difference between normative (vision-driven) and analytical (possibility driven) scenario planning
- Lessons from both successful and disappointing scenario processes
- What makes system transformation possible: shared concerns, openness, and diversity of perspectives
- Everyday habits for transforming systems, including the metaphor of “finding cracks” in systems to enable change
- Adam’s perspective on hope and the importance of collective, persistent engagement

People:

Adam Kahane is a leading organiser, designer and facilitator, celebrated for facilitating the Mont Fleur scenarios in South Africa as the country was exiting its apartheid era. He has worked in more than fifty countries, in every part of the world, with executives and politicians, generals and guerrillas, community activists and United Nations officials and many more.

He is the author of several influential books, including “How to Work with People You Don’t Agree with or Like or Trust” and his latest, “Everyday Habits for Transforming Systems.”

Alex Evans is the founder and Executive Director of Larger Us. He’s also a Visiting Professor in Practice at Newcastle University’s School of Arts and Cultures, a Senior Fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, and the author of The Myth Gap: What Happens When Evidence and Arguments Aren’t Enough? (Penguin, 2017).

Alex is a former Campaign Director at Avaaz, where he ran campaigns on areas including Brexit and human rights. He’s also been a political adviser, including for two UK Secretaries of State for International Development and in the UN Secretary-General’s office, and as a consultant for organisations from Oxfam to the US National Intelligence Council.

Resources & Links:

Adam’s books, including “Everyday Habits for Transforming Systems”, can be found here.

More information about the Mont Fleur Scenarios can be found here.

Our music is "Cleanse the Corruption" by Fogheart, used with permission.

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