The Long Crisis Scenarios with David Steven

Host Alex Evans is joined by David Steven, a senior fellow at the UN Foundation, senior fellow at NYU’s Center on International Cooperation, and Managing Director of River Path Associates. Longtime collaborators, Alex and David reflect on the "Long Crisis Scenarios" they developed during the pandemic and discuss how those ideas have fared five years on.

Key Topics:

- David’s path to international work
- Four key global risks: acute shocks, long-term stresses, deliberate disruption and folly, ignorance, neglect.
- Layers of crisis unfolding at different speeds
- The Four Long Crisis Scenarios Revisited: “Rise of the Oligarchs”, “Big Mother, “Fragile, Resilient”, “Winning Ugly”
- Reflections on risk, governance and international institutions
- The United Nations and the future of multilateralism
- Reasons to be hopeful

People:

David Steven is a seasoned analyst and consultant specialising in global governance, crisis management, and international cooperation. With experience advising the UN, World Bank, governments and more, David brings insight from decades working on global issues, policy papers, and scenario planning alongside Alex.

Alex Evans is the founder and Executive Director of Larger Us. He’s also a Visiting Professor in Practice at Newcastle University’s School of Arts and Cultures, a Senior Fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, and the author of "The Myth Gap: What Happens When Evidence and Arguments Aren’t Enough?" (Penguin, 2017). Alex is a former Campaign Director at Avaaz, where he ran campaigns on areas including Brexit. He’s also been a political adviser, including for two UK Secretaries of State for International Development and in the UN Secretary-General’s office.

Resources and Further Reading:

The Long Crisis Scenarios, Local Trust
Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalisation, Brookings Institution
Shooting the rapids: multilateralism and global risks, The Global Dashboard