Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, explains why Americans remain uncomfortable with gold despite it hitting new highs - it implies dollar weakness after 150 years of reserve currency dominance. He reveals FDR seized the Federal Reserve's gold in 1933 with little compensation, while today US gold allocation sits under 1% of portfolios versus growing central bank accumulation. Whalen defends his call for earlier Fed cuts. He sees gold reaching $5,000+ by end of 2025 as US allocations shift from under 1% toward 2%, while warning the average person without assets continues getting screwed as the Fed will eventually monetize Treasury issuance through financial repression.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance

0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis

1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut

2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint

2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point

4:17 Monetary Metals ad read

5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top

6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class

7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months

9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater

10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis

13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels

15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury

18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out

19:54 Taking profits

22:36 Watching the herd mentality

25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead

27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors

31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion

33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling

34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency

36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, presents his business cycle framework showing leading indicators crossed in November 2024 (Titanic hit iceberg), but imminent recession indicators haven't triggered yet (ship not sinking). He sees a final blow-off top with S&P potentially hitting 7,500 and NASDAQ 28,000 before a potential 50% crash that would still leave valuations at third-highest ever with market cap to GDP at unprecedented 220%. Zeberg warns gold is in a "mini bubble" front-running deflationary collapse and will decline when dollar bottoms, despite $35,000 long-term target. His most provocative thesis: after deflationary bust, Fed money printing will cause stagflation because "Mrs. Johnson" will hoard rate cut savings rather than spend, while Fed remains "way too late" using lagging indicators like "driving by looking in rear window."

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/

Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Henrik Zeberg

1:13 Zeberg Business Cycle framework - four phases explained

3:28 Leading indicators crossed November 2024 - Titanic hit iceberg

5:43 Imminent recession indicators - credit spreads, yield spreads, initial claims

8:39 Markets don't lead - unemployment bottoms before stock market tops

13:52 Market cap to GDP at 220% - unprecedented bubble territory

16:08 Elliott Wave targets - S&P 7,500, NASDAQ 28,000 possible

18:40 Singapore index - canary in coal mine for global economy

19:17 Everything bubble explained - rate suppression distorted all valuations

22:44 Most dangerous when people don't recognize bubble

24:37 Fed micromanaging creates inefficient capital allocation

27:05 S&P could fall 50% to 3,350 and still be third highest valuation ever

29:59 Gold mini bubble - front-running deflationary collapse

32:54 Dollar bottom coming - gold decline ahead despite long-term bullishness

34:03 Own physical gold but don't buy more right now

37:05 Stagflation thesis - deflationary bust then high inflation

42:49 Mrs. Johnson won't spend rate cut savings - she'll hoard it

44:57 Fed way too late - rearranging deck chairs on Titanic

48:43 Housing affordability

51:01 Central bank hubris

53:55 Fed using lagging indicators - driving by looking in rear window

57:42 Peak euphoria warning - when it feels best, be most careful

Axel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with nearly $3 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and gold's surge to record highs. In this episode, Merk explains how "fringe" fiscal sustainability concerns have moved mainstream, driving gold to new highs above $3,700. He provides a gold mining primer, distinguishing between speculative junior miners and established producers, while focusing on developers with proven management teams as the "scarcest resource." Merk criticizes the Fed's evolution into micromanaging the economy through its "toolkit," arguing this creates inefficient capital allocation and enables political irresponsibility. He notes gold's correlation breakdown due to dollar weaponization and sees continued upside potential, though warns against overexposure, emphasizing that the best investment advice is to "invest in yourself" and control spending.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

https://www.merkinvestments.com/

https://x.com/axelmerk

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Axel Merk returns after 6 months

0:38 AUM growth from $2B to $3B reflects gold space interest

1:29 Liberation Day framework - tariffs impact financial flows

3:04 Fringe views moving mainstream amid elevated valuations

3:49 Long-term fiscal sustainability concerns driving gold investment

6:08 Fed micromanaging economy enables political irresponsibility

7:47 Gold's parabolic rise - perception vs reality of "barbarous relic"

10:23 Gold mining dynamics - junior miners haven't had explosive rally yet

13:10 Gold Mining 101 - conservative vs speculative investor profiles

15:23 Big miners' over/under-investment cycle post-financial crisis

17:19 Developer focus - scarcest resource is good management

18:31 Junior vs major miners - venture capitalists with hard hats

21:14 Gold correlation breakdown - weaponization changed dynamics

24:37 Fed micromanagement critique - toolkit means intervention

26:48 Inefficient capital allocation favors big companies

27:58 Preventing recessions vs natural business cycles

31:58 Gold as 20-year hedge - glad you had it in hindsight

32:32 Silver complexity - industrial use creates volatility

36:02 Investment advice - invest in yourself first, control spending

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Howell presents his global liquidity cycle framework showing markets are late in a 35-month bull run that began in late 2022, with early warning signs emerging in repo markets as SOFR spreads spike. He warns of a massive debt refinancing wall hitting 2026-2029 from COVID-era borrowing, while the Fed transitions from QE to "Treasury QE" under Bessent's direction to fund real economy priorities. Howell's most striking thesis involves gold price targets of $10,000 by the late 2030s and $25,000 by 2052 based on structural deficit math, driven by both US monetary inflation and China's liquidity expansion to escape its debt crisis. He advocates for monetary inflation hedges like gold and Bitcoin as central banks deliberately weaken currencies in a "Make America Great" strategy against China.

Links:

Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/

Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap

Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Michael Howell returns to discuss markets

1:14 Global liquidity cycle framework - 5-6 year cycle approaching top

3:41 Late cycle positioning - thinking end game vs beginning

6:06 Debt-liquidity integration - 80% of lending now collateral-backed

8:46 Early warning signs - SOFR spreads and repo market tensions

11:49 Debt-liquidity ratio analysis - refinancing crisis ahead

14:15 COVID debt echo effect - massive refinancing wall 2026-2029

17:04 Fed balance sheet slowdown - similar to early 2022 conditions

18:51 Treasury QE emergence - Bessent directing liquidity to real economy

20:20 Stablecoin monetization - credit providers buying government debt

22:36 Plain vanilla cycle - everything following normal script

25:00 Asset allocation phases - rebound, calm, speculation, turbulence

29:20 Gold breakout analysis - disconnect from real rates since 2022

31:45 Structural deficit math - mandatory spending blowout ahead

33:42 Gold price targets - $10,000 by late 2030s, $25,000 by 2052

35:56 Monetary vs high street inflation - currency devaluation vs CPI

39:44 Fed independence questioned - Treasury QE running the show

41:51 Make America Great currency war - deliberate dollar weakening

44:08 China's gold strategy - escaping debt crisis through monetization

46:33 Chinese liquidity expansion - driving global commodity reflation

50:05 Final thoughts - late cycle caution, gold as monetary hedge

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show for an in-person episode to recap the FOMC, discuss the state of the economy, housing, and his highest conviction ideas.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance

0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis

1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut

2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint

2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point

4:17 Monetary Metals ad read

5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top

6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class

7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months

9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater

10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis

13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels

15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury

18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out

19:54 Taking profits

22:36 Watching the herd mentality

25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead

27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors

31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion

33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling

34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency

36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the September FOMC. DiMartino Booth argues the Fed "chose independence over economy" with its 25bp cut, as Waller and Bowman sacrificed potential Fed chair positions by not dissenting for larger cuts. She presents compelling evidence the US has created zero jobs since April in the core private sector and calls a double-dip recession starting Q2 2024. DiMartino Booth's thesis is that "the Fed put is dead" - if the Fed goes to zero bound again, the 40% of stocks owned by 70+ year-olds will be forced to sell, stress-testing passive flows for the first time in history. She advocates reforming the Fed's structure, eliminating the conflicting dual mandate, and warns that unknown leverage in private markets represents the new systemic fault line.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Danielle in studio post-FOMC

0:36 Fed chose independence over economy - 25bp cut reaction

2:32 Waller's non-dissent - sacrificing Fed chair shot for integrity

3:46 US created zero jobs since April in core private sector

5:43 Monetary Metals ad read

6:43 Double dip recession call - started Q2 2024

8:53 Jobs typo in North Carolina data - continuing claims actually rose

11:14 Top 10% now account for 49% of consumption

12:21 Double dip recession explained - historical 1980-81 parallel

14:31 1.4 million full-time jobs lost since January

16:08 CEOs investing in AI to cut workers, not add jobs

17:20 Fed's dual mandate doesn't make sense - inherently conflicting

20:16 The Fed put is dead - new book thesis

23:02 Zero bound means boomers sell stocks - passive never stress tested

27:24 Fed structure needs reform - too many PhDs, need practitioners

29:01 Lehman anniversary - Fed violated law with MBS purchases

31:42 Private markets are new fault line - leverage unknown

32:32 Final thoughts - give peace a chance, listen to each other

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show his monthly appearance. In this episode, Whalen reports taking a risk-off position after 30% gains this year, noting Wall Street hedge funds are similarly going net short amid concerns about Treasury market stability. He warns that upcoming Supreme Court tariff decisions could force costly refunds while the Treasury faces mounting deficits from recent legislation. Whalen criticizes the Fed's "reckless" quantitative easing policies and predicts the dollar will lose reserve currency status as countries seek alternatives, leading to inevitable inflation as the US monetizes its debt. He sees parallels to 1924 Florida real estate speculation but expects a coming housing reset that could take prices back to 2020-21 levels, creating opportunities for patient buyers.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen returns for monthly appearance

0:56 Big picture outlook - Trump administration personalities not getting along

2:47 Risk off positioning - took 30% gains, markets losing steam

5:11 Wall Street going risk off - hedge funds net short after taking gains

8:15 Fed meeting outlook - rate cut uncertain despite expectations

10:53 Supreme Court tariff decision - could force Treasury refunds

12:57 Treasury Secretary's Fed criticism - "reckless gain of function experiments"

15:48 Treasury market crisis risk - biggest worry for Chris

18:03 Fed rate cut impact - quarter point fine, half point signals recession

19:45 Pretend and extend - massive forbearance in commercial real estate

20:04 Consumer health - okay for now but housing reset coming

23:08 Gold's changing nature - now buying on dollar/inflation concerns

24:25 Dollar losing reserve status - will be one of many currencies

26:22 Reserve currency burden - domestic inflationary component

27:39 Real estate speculation - like 1924 Florida land boom

28:53 Coming housing blow-off - prices back to 2020-21 levels

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 285 to discuss the economy and markets.

Sponsored by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Ted warns that markets are extremely expensive at 23x future earnings while the economy is flatlining. He expects coming Fed rate cuts to be an Arthur Burns-style policy mistake, creating a window to sell long bonds before higher structural inflation takes hold over the next 5-10 years. Oakley advocates significant cash positions (his firm holds 50% short-term treasuries) and exposure to commodities, energy, and gold as hedges against dollar decline and inflation. He sees concerning parallels to late 1990s day-trading mania among retail investors and emphasizes risk management over aggressive growth, particularly for older investors who need to preserve wealth rather than chase returns.

With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective.

He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.

Links:

Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors

X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and intro

0:51 Big picture outlook - market extremely expensive

2:10 Disconnect between economy and markets - flatlining economy vs rising stocks

3:20 48 years in markets - emotions never change at highs and lows

4:43 Fed rate cuts coming - Arthur Burns mistake repeating

6:24 Sell long bonds opportunity - inflation higher for next 5-10 years

9:08 Most people don't know what's in their portfolios

10:27 Rate cuts won't significantly impact 30-year rates

12:02 Can Fed solve inflation? Only through Volcker-style aggressive tightening

13:28 Jobs report

14:20 Recession outlook - wouldn't hurt to clean up system leverage

15:52 Retail investor activity - zero commissions created day trading

18:22 Warning signs from individual investors - last in, last out

19:49 Liquidity allocation by age - different strategies for different ages

22:49 Risk management key - never lose a lot of money

26:59 Finding opportunities - screening 300 good companies

29:45 Current allocation - 50% short-term treasuries across strategies

31:48 Gold and bonds relationship - hard assets hedge against dollar decline

33:48 Commodities outlook - 25-year lows present opportunity

36:15 Biggest surprise this year - tariff costs not fully passed to consumers

37:54 Biggest risk - America not as strong militarily as we think

39:11 Optimism in American resilience and young people's potential