Peter Grandich, veteran of 40+ years on Wall Street, delivers his most dire warning yet, saying he's more concerned than during the 1987 crash, dot-com bubble, or 2008 financial crisis due to deteriorating political, social, and economic conditions. He describes a dangerous "K-economy" where the top 10% own 86% of assets while the bottom 50% use credit cards for basic necessities, creating fertile ground for socialist candidates. Grandich warns markets are in a final melt-up phase driven by passive investing and computer trading, with no political cohesion to address the next crisis. He favors gold and international stocks over US equities, predicts Trump's trade war will accelerate de-dollarization, and expects Fed rate cuts won't help if long-term rates stay elevated due to massive deficit spending.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and intro

1:12 Big picture outlook - fourth time in 42-year career being this concerned

3:04 K-economy explained - top 10% own 86% of assets, bottom 50% struggling

6:53 Market structure changed - passive investing and computer trading dominate

11:46 Trade war concerns - big stick vs olive branch approach

12:58 Fed rate cuts coming but long-term rates may stay higher

17:58 Significance of rate dynamics - mortgages tied to long-term rates

21:26 1987 crash call - how he got the "Wiz Kid" nickname

22:45 More concerned than ever - political, social, economic factors all worse

26:12 Socialist candidates emerging - wealth inequality driving politics

28:26 CPI manipulation - removing long-term care costs from index

32:36 Investment allocation - favoring gold and international stocks

34:28 Gold thesis - not early anymore but still has upside

35:27 Critical minerals shortage - AI needs metals we don't have

38:07 Faith-based perspective - Catholic faith guides decisions

41:33 Trade war will backfire - accelerating de-dollarization

Links:

https://x.com/PeterGrandich

https://petergrandich.com/

https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September despite market expectations, with only a one-in-three chance due to FOMC dynamics and persistent inflation. He expects radical Fed reforms under Trump's nominee Steve Miran, including potentially moving the Fed out of Washington to restore independence. Whalen is bullish on gold as the world returns to sound money, sees housing prices weakening with a major reset possible in 2028, and highlights SoFi as outperforming Bitcoin threefold. He warns the biggest market risk comes from crypto platform implosions while remaining optimistic about Trump's policies despite concerns about subject matter expertise in new appointments.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen

1:42 Big picture outlook - Fed rate cuts unlikely despite expectations

3:22 FOMC dynamics - need majority for rate cuts, only one in three chance for September

5:09 Fed changes ahead - Steve Miran and radical reforms coming

7:17 Fed independence and getting out of Washington politics

8:39 Fiscal reality - Fed is the tail, Treasury is the dog

9:57 Gold thesis - back to sound money as world's reserve asset

11:40 Gold allocation - still early innings, most portfolios under 5%

14:13 Jobs data skepticism - government shouldn't be gathering this data

16:13 CPI and inflation - too much liquidity still in the system

18:10 Markets still have room to run - buying opportunities ahead

20:18 NYC mayoral race - Cuomo path to victory over Mamdani

22:34 Wealth divide creating socialist candidates - inflation driving pain

24:05 Fed in a corner - can't squeeze economy like Volcker did

26:19 GSE outlook - Fannie/Freddie IPO coming in Q4

31:31 Housing market - prices weakening but reset coming in 2028

34:19 Investment opportunities - SoFi outperforming Bitcoin by 3x

36:15 Biggest risks - crypto platforms about to implode

Dr. Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report, provides his characteristically pessimistic outlook, arguing that while Asian economies have bottomed out, mature Western economies are turning down amid unsustainable asset price inflation. He believes the 40-year asset bubble since 1980-81 is ending and "everything will go down eventually," making preservation of capital more important than growth. Faber is ultra-bearish on all paper currencies, expects residential real estate to decline significantly, and warns the US debt situation "will end badly" - possibly through World War III. Despite being in the financial sector that benefits from money printing, he surprisingly agrees with Powell's reluctance to cut rates, arguing money isn't actually tight despite higher interest rates.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Dr. Marc Faber returns to the show
1:18 Big picture global economy - Asia bottomed out, mature economies turning down
7:59 Asset price inflation and monetary policy - where money flows first
13:37 Monetary Metals ad read
15:23 The illusion of wealth - from millionaires to billionaires
18:46 Housing affordability at lowest level ever in America
23:21 US debt and deficit - "it will end badly" but when?
24:50 How it ends badly - World War III is a possibility
28:48 Ultra bearish on US dollar and all paper currencies
32:12 Precious metals thesis - as long as liquidity remains plenty
36:28 Cryptocurrencies - "will go up until it won't"
38:26 Fed policy - agrees with Powell not to cut rates
41:35 Real estate outlook - residential property "very vulnerable asset"
45:11 Biggest risk and opportunity - everything will go down eventually

Links:The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com

Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics, analyzes shocking jobs revisions showing only 35,000 jobs added over three months and questions whether this signals real weakness or statistical noise. Using her team's "12 million prices project," she reveals tariff pass-through is already happening with audio equipment up 11%, while services inflation may rebound as consumer sentiment improves. Drawing on White House experience during the 2019 trade war, Wong argues tariff uncertainty damages the economy more than tariffs themselves. She warns we may already be in recession and expects Fed rate cuts delayed until December.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Links:https://x.com/AnnaEconomist

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics
1:05 Big picture economy - last Friday's payroll flipped everything upside down
2:58 Forward looking indicators suggest investment picking up in second half
4:06 Massive jobs revisions - 35,000 three-month hiring trend
6:20 Are the revisions a fluke or signal of real weakness?
9:53 Three sectors driving downward revisions - construction, leisure, logistics
11:26 Non-farm payrolls as most market-moving economic indicator
14:05 Why employment data is so error-prone - birth-death model problems
16:48 Monetary Metals ad read
18:00 How Friday's report impacts Fed September meeting prospects
20:00 Fed forecasting - 80% effort on inflation and jobs data
21:18 12 million prices project tracking tariff pass-through
25:00 Services inflation vs tariff impact - the real story
30:00 Top 20% income earners driving swing consumption
32:32 Fed outlook - rate cuts likely delayed until December
34:34 White House experience in 2019-2020 - lessons on tariffs and travel bans
40:00 Markets driven by TACO and FOMO - set for huge volatility
41:02 What keeps Anna up at night - are we already in recession?
43:23 Optimism on tariff narrative shifting and uncertainty resolution
45:00 AI concerns - people in their 20s dropping from labor force

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio on Fed day to analyze the historic FOMC meeting featuring the first double dissent since 1993, arguing it could have been a triple dissent based on softened statement language. She criticizes Powell's dismissive handling of the dissenters and Trump's public attacks on the Fed chair, warning of an "Armageddon scenario" if Trump continues his pressure campaign. DiMartino Booth presents data showing the US entered recession in Q2 2024, with job losses, rising underemployment, and deflation in key sectors like hotels and airlines. She argues Powell could secure his legacy by admitting he's wrong about the job market being "solid" when data shows jobs are increasingly hard to get.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

0:00 Welcome and introduction - FOMC day reaction

1:05 Historic double dissent - first since 1993

3:04 History of Fed dissents - why they disappeared after 1996

6:48 Powell's dismissive handling of dissenters

8:26 Why dissents should be healthy for Fed decision-making

9:23 Trump's embarrassing public beratement of Powell

10:52 The Armageddon scenario - what happens if Trump pushes too hard

13:13 Will Powell stay? Hell would freeze over before he leaves

15:00 Powell's path to securing his Fed legacy

16:40 Jobs hard to get rises to highest of cycle - 18.9%

17:26 US economy entered recession in Q2 2024

19:13 Deflation signals - hotel revenues and airline travel down

20:25 Core PCE market-based pricing is negative 0.3%

21:23 Gig economy collapse - Uber drivers earning 60% less

22:41 Biggest risk - Fed's tone deafness to job market reality

Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 276 where he provides an assessment of America's financial predicament, arguing that 30 years of Federal Reserve easy money policies have created damage to the economy and society. He explains how the Treasury is attempting to manage the $36 trillion debt crisis by rolling financing to the short end of the curve while allowing banks to increase leverage ratios, creating demand for government bonds. Fleckenstein believes market analysis no longer applies due to the dominance of passive flows, making shorting ineffective and valuations meaningless. He's holding more cash than ever in his investment career and warns that we're past the point of no return financially. Beyond economics, he's concerned about wealth bifurcation driving younger generations toward financial gambling or socialism, eroding American society's fabric.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap

Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Bill returns to the show

0:56 Big picture macro view - uncertainty and Trump volatility

4:55 Bond market games - rolling debt to short end of curve

7:39 Investment strategy - holding more cash than ever

10:22 Why shorting doesn't work anymore - the passive bid problem

11:46 Passive flows and employment concerns for young graduates

14:25 Understanding the passive bid - why it matters for all ages

18:37 Fed critique - 30 years of destructive easy money policies

22:49 Mission creep and arrogance at the Federal Reserve

25:57 Bond market story - financing games and bank leverage

29:04 Is this the right policy approach? No good options left

34:24 Are we in a Fed-induced bubble? The "everything bubble"

36:45 Can the Fed control inflation? Lessons from the gold standard

40:24 Could we return to sound money? Past the point of no return

44:20 The math doesn't work - why we're too late

47:01 What keeps Bill up at night - societal breakdown and wealth bifurcation

50:09 Optimism in human ingenuity despite challenges

51:10 Quick take on gold - the one financial antidote

Nick Maggiulli, COO at Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of "The Wealth Ladder," presents his data-driven framework for understanding wealth progression. He explains his six-level wealth ladder system (from under $10K to over $100M) and introduces the 0.01% spending rule for lifestyle decisions. Maggiulli emphasizes focusing on controllable factors rather than macro predictions, shares his personal journey from working-class background to level four wealth through consistent content creation, and discusses why different strategies are needed at each wealth level. He advocates for the "just keep buying" approach for level three investors while acknowledging that business ownership becomes necessary to reach level five.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

The Wealth Ladder: https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-Ladder-Proven-Strategies-Financial/dp/0593854039/

X: https://x.com/dollarsanddata

Of Dollars and Data: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Nick's return to the show
1:19 Big picture outlook - focusing on individual control vs macro
3:14 Death of the Amex lounge - rise of the upper middle class
7:21 The wealth ladder framework - six levels explained
10:06 Spending framework - the 0.01% rule
13:03 Income vs wealth-based spending decisions
17:11 Nick's personal journey through the wealth levels
19:37 Building through content creation and consistency
23:22 Stanford experience and class differences
26:07 Progressing from level three to four - just keep buying
28:41 The book as guide and warning - when is enough enough?
30:20 Money and happiness - the logarithmic relationship
32:44 Just keep buying framework at all-time highs
36:45 Why Nick owns Bitcoin - the 5% allocation
40:39 Final thoughts - importance of income across wealth levels

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock, warns that markets are approaching a historic "blow-off top" with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 6,700-6,900 before a devastating crash. Using his business cycle model, he argues we've already hit the "Titanic moment" - where leading indicators have collapsed while markets surge to bubble extremes. Zeberg predicts this "Everything Bubble" will lead to a deflationary crash potentially worse than 2008, followed by a stagflationary period in 2026-2028. He criticizes the Federal Reserve for massive policy errors, focusing on backward-looking inflation data while ignoring consumer distress and housing market deterioration. Despite being long Bitcoin (targeting $150K-$180K), he warns it could crash 80% and sees parallels to subprime risks in corporate treasuries loaded with crypto.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/p/final-warning-the-emperors-new-clothes

0:00 Welcome Henrik Zeberg

0:43 Macro framework and business cycle model

3:29 Titanic moment explained

6:09 Blow-off top targets (S&P 6,700-6,900)

8:06 Trading vs investing in this environment

9:30 Market signposts to watch

11:21 Post blow-off top scenario

14:30 How sharp will the decline be?

18:00 Prediction markets showing 20% recession odds

18:54 Liquidity vs solvency problem

23:03 Federal Reserve policy errors

26:21 Fed credibility problems

29:11 What to ask Powell at FOMC

31:09 Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?

33:08 Bitcoin analysis and bubble concerns

37:30 Bitcoin as subprime risk

40:01 Gold outlook and inflation narrative

42:45 The "Everything Bubble" thesis

48:13 How to protect yourself

51:16 Final thoughts and where to find Henrik