Peter Grandich, veteran of 40+ years on Wall Street, delivers his most dire warning yet, saying he's more concerned than during the 1987 crash, dot-com bubble, or 2008 financial crisis due to deteriorating political, social, and economic conditions. He describes a dangerous "K-economy" where the top 10% own 86% of assets while the bottom 50% use credit cards for basic necessities, creating fertile ground for socialist candidates. Grandich warns markets are in a final melt-up phase driven by passive investing and computer trading, with no political cohesion to address the next crisis. He favors gold and international stocks over US equities, predicts Trump's trade war will accelerate de-dollarization, and expects Fed rate cuts won't help if long-term rates stay elevated due to massive deficit spending.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and intro

1:12 Big picture outlook - fourth time in 42-year career being this concerned

3:04 K-economy explained - top 10% own 86% of assets, bottom 50% struggling

6:53 Market structure changed - passive investing and computer trading dominate

11:46 Trade war concerns - big stick vs olive branch approach

12:58 Fed rate cuts coming but long-term rates may stay higher

17:58 Significance of rate dynamics - mortgages tied to long-term rates

21:26 1987 crash call - how he got the "Wiz Kid" nickname

22:45 More concerned than ever - political, social, economic factors all worse

26:12 Socialist candidates emerging - wealth inequality driving politics

28:26 CPI manipulation - removing long-term care costs from index

32:36 Investment allocation - favoring gold and international stocks

34:28 Gold thesis - not early anymore but still has upside

35:27 Critical minerals shortage - AI needs metals we don't have

38:07 Faith-based perspective - Catholic faith guides decisions

41:33 Trade war will backfire - accelerating de-dollarization

Links:

https://x.com/PeterGrandich

https://petergrandich.com/

https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September despite market expectations, with only a one-in-three chance due to FOMC dynamics and persistent inflation. He expects radical Fed reforms under Trump's nominee Steve Miran, including potentially moving the Fed out of Washington to restore independence. Whalen is bullish on gold as the world returns to sound money, sees housing prices weakening with a major reset possible in 2028, and highlights SoFi as outperforming Bitcoin threefold. He warns the biggest market risk comes from crypto platform implosions while remaining optimistic about Trump's policies despite concerns about subject matter expertise in new appointments.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen

1:42 Big picture outlook - Fed rate cuts unlikely despite expectations

3:22 FOMC dynamics - need majority for rate cuts, only one in three chance for September

5:09 Fed changes ahead - Steve Miran and radical reforms coming

7:17 Fed independence and getting out of Washington politics

8:39 Fiscal reality - Fed is the tail, Treasury is the dog

9:57 Gold thesis - back to sound money as world's reserve asset

11:40 Gold allocation - still early innings, most portfolios under 5%

14:13 Jobs data skepticism - government shouldn't be gathering this data

16:13 CPI and inflation - too much liquidity still in the system

18:10 Markets still have room to run - buying opportunities ahead

20:18 NYC mayoral race - Cuomo path to victory over Mamdani

22:34 Wealth divide creating socialist candidates - inflation driving pain

24:05 Fed in a corner - can't squeeze economy like Volcker did

26:19 GSE outlook - Fannie/Freddie IPO coming in Q4

31:31 Housing market - prices weakening but reset coming in 2028

34:19 Investment opportunities - SoFi outperforming Bitcoin by 3x

36:15 Biggest risks - crypto platforms about to implode

Dr. Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report, provides his characteristically pessimistic outlook, arguing that while Asian economies have bottomed out, mature Western economies are turning down amid unsustainable asset price inflation. He believes the 40-year asset bubble since 1980-81 is ending and "everything will go down eventually," making preservation of capital more important than growth. Faber is ultra-bearish on all paper currencies, expects residential real estate to decline significantly, and warns the US debt situation "will end badly" - possibly through World War III. Despite being in the financial sector that benefits from money printing, he surprisingly agrees with Powell's reluctance to cut rates, arguing money isn't actually tight despite higher interest rates.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Dr. Marc Faber returns to the show
1:18 Big picture global economy - Asia bottomed out, mature economies turning down
7:59 Asset price inflation and monetary policy - where money flows first
13:37 Monetary Metals ad read
15:23 The illusion of wealth - from millionaires to billionaires
18:46 Housing affordability at lowest level ever in America
23:21 US debt and deficit - "it will end badly" but when?
24:50 How it ends badly - World War III is a possibility
28:48 Ultra bearish on US dollar and all paper currencies
32:12 Precious metals thesis - as long as liquidity remains plenty
36:28 Cryptocurrencies - "will go up until it won't"
38:26 Fed policy - agrees with Powell not to cut rates
41:35 Real estate outlook - residential property "very vulnerable asset"
45:11 Biggest risk and opportunity - everything will go down eventually

Links:The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com