Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, explains why Americans remain uncomfortable with gold despite it hitting new highs - it implies dollar weakness after 150 years of reserve currency dominance. He reveals FDR seized the Federal Reserve's gold in 1933 with little compensation, while today US gold allocation sits under 1% of portfolios versus growing central bank accumulation. Whalen defends his call for earlier Fed cuts. He sees gold reaching $5,000+ by end of 2025 as US allocations shift from under 1% toward 2%, while warning the average person without assets continues getting screwed as the Fed will eventually monetize Treasury issuance through financial repression.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance

0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis

1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut

2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint

2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point

4:17 Monetary Metals ad read

5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top

6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class

7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months

9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater

10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis

13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels

15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury

18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out

19:54 Taking profits

22:36 Watching the herd mentality

25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead

27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors

31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion

33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling

34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency

36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, presents his business cycle framework showing leading indicators crossed in November 2024 (Titanic hit iceberg), but imminent recession indicators haven't triggered yet (ship not sinking). He sees a final blow-off top with S&P potentially hitting 7,500 and NASDAQ 28,000 before a potential 50% crash that would still leave valuations at third-highest ever with market cap to GDP at unprecedented 220%. Zeberg warns gold is in a "mini bubble" front-running deflationary collapse and will decline when dollar bottoms, despite $35,000 long-term target. His most provocative thesis: after deflationary bust, Fed money printing will cause stagflation because "Mrs. Johnson" will hoard rate cut savings rather than spend, while Fed remains "way too late" using lagging indicators like "driving by looking in rear window."

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/

Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Henrik Zeberg

1:13 Zeberg Business Cycle framework - four phases explained

3:28 Leading indicators crossed November 2024 - Titanic hit iceberg

5:43 Imminent recession indicators - credit spreads, yield spreads, initial claims

8:39 Markets don't lead - unemployment bottoms before stock market tops

13:52 Market cap to GDP at 220% - unprecedented bubble territory

16:08 Elliott Wave targets - S&P 7,500, NASDAQ 28,000 possible

18:40 Singapore index - canary in coal mine for global economy

19:17 Everything bubble explained - rate suppression distorted all valuations

22:44 Most dangerous when people don't recognize bubble

24:37 Fed micromanaging creates inefficient capital allocation

27:05 S&P could fall 50% to 3,350 and still be third highest valuation ever

29:59 Gold mini bubble - front-running deflationary collapse

32:54 Dollar bottom coming - gold decline ahead despite long-term bullishness

34:03 Own physical gold but don't buy more right now

37:05 Stagflation thesis - deflationary bust then high inflation

42:49 Mrs. Johnson won't spend rate cut savings - she'll hoard it

44:57 Fed way too late - rearranging deck chairs on Titanic

48:43 Housing affordability

51:01 Central bank hubris

53:55 Fed using lagging indicators - driving by looking in rear window

57:42 Peak euphoria warning - when it feels best, be most careful

Axel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with nearly $3 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and gold's surge to record highs. In this episode, Merk explains how "fringe" fiscal sustainability concerns have moved mainstream, driving gold to new highs above $3,700. He provides a gold mining primer, distinguishing between speculative junior miners and established producers, while focusing on developers with proven management teams as the "scarcest resource." Merk criticizes the Fed's evolution into micromanaging the economy through its "toolkit," arguing this creates inefficient capital allocation and enables political irresponsibility. He notes gold's correlation breakdown due to dollar weaponization and sees continued upside potential, though warns against overexposure, emphasizing that the best investment advice is to "invest in yourself" and control spending.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

https://www.merkinvestments.com/

https://x.com/axelmerk

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Axel Merk returns after 6 months

0:38 AUM growth from $2B to $3B reflects gold space interest

1:29 Liberation Day framework - tariffs impact financial flows

3:04 Fringe views moving mainstream amid elevated valuations

3:49 Long-term fiscal sustainability concerns driving gold investment

6:08 Fed micromanaging economy enables political irresponsibility

7:47 Gold's parabolic rise - perception vs reality of "barbarous relic"

10:23 Gold mining dynamics - junior miners haven't had explosive rally yet

13:10 Gold Mining 101 - conservative vs speculative investor profiles

15:23 Big miners' over/under-investment cycle post-financial crisis

17:19 Developer focus - scarcest resource is good management

18:31 Junior vs major miners - venture capitalists with hard hats

21:14 Gold correlation breakdown - weaponization changed dynamics

24:37 Fed micromanagement critique - toolkit means intervention

26:48 Inefficient capital allocation favors big companies

27:58 Preventing recessions vs natural business cycles

31:58 Gold as 20-year hedge - glad you had it in hindsight

32:32 Silver complexity - industrial use creates volatility

36:02 Investment advice - invest in yourself first, control spending