Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen."

In this episode, Whalen calls Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond buyback idea "idiotic" and says institutional investors aren't the problem with housing - the Fed buying 30-year mortgages and driving up home prices 50% in five years was the real culprit. He explains the Fed has been "operating like a hedge fund" with dangerous variable duration securities that won't pay off for over 10 years. On Venezuela, Whalen says it should have happened long ago - the Iranians had offensive missiles there that could strike the US, and he's astounded previous administrations tolerated it. He warns AI hype is now a systemic risk to tech valuations, with Oracle's Larry Ellison risking his company to chase the crowd, and predicts 2025's "magical year with no apparent cost for risk" is ending as banks prepare for consumer credit deterioration in 2026-27.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira796

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen

00:48 Non-farm payrolls report - weakness supports those saying economy is weak

01:46 Rate cuts likely this year on short end, but long-term rates not coming down

02:45 Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond idea - Chris calls it "idiotic"

07:25 Housing correction already building in weaker markets

08:24 Institutional investors not the problem - Fed buying 30-year mortgages was the problem

12:04 What would actually help housing? Build more houses, change zoning

13:04 NYC

18:16 Venezuela should have happened long ago

24:49 AI hype now a systemic risk to tech valuations?

27:06 Buying cheap financials - Flagstar below book, knows the team

28:39 2025 magical year with no apparent cost for risk - that's changing

30:05 Bank earnings next week

30:35 Viewer question: Deregulation impact on banks and real estate

32:53 Viewer question: If correction coming, wouldn't metals also fall?

34:52 Wrap up and parting thoughts

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, argues the world changed forever after the US captured Maduro on January 3 in "Operation Absolute Resolve" - the first time in 100 years a country took out another head of state without consent. He explains this signals the death of the rule-based international order, making gold extremely bullish as countries can no longer trust the dollar system. Woo's key trades for 2026: short oil (December contract heading to high 40s/low 50s) as Trump needs to win the affordability argument for midterms, and he gives 65% odds of a massive $2,000 tariff rebate stimulus package. He admits getting gold completely wrong last year (up 60%) but remains bullish, warns the K-shaped economy consensus is about to be upended if lower oil and stimulus help the bottom 80%, and identifies the AI bubble bursting as the biggest risk - with Microsoft's January 28 earnings as a crucial date.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).

Links:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome David Woo

01:28 Macro picture - don't fight Trump

02:31 Midterm election is the biggest story of 2026

05:17 Affordability argument - Venezuela about oil - not democracy, not drugs

12:45 Tariff rebate? 65% chance of massive fiscal stimulus before midterms

16:10 Don't fight Trump - theme of 2026

16:35 Gold was up 60% - the ultimate Trump trade of 2025

17:15 Short oil is the ultimate Trump trade of 2026

19:03 K-shape economy consensus about to be upended

20:43 What David got wrong on gold last year

26:17 The world is not the same - Venezuela changes everything

31:45 US tech lead over China shrinking from 2-3 years to 6 months

33:54 Knock-on effects: Bearish emerging markets, bullish defense, bullish gold

38:57 OPEC biggest loser - lost Venezuela, may lose Iran

42:04 TACO or FAFO?

44:44 Why does stock market matter to Trump?

49:34 Biggest risk for 2026: Bursting of AI bubble

52:10 Retail buy-the-dip crowd - most powerful force in markets

54:14 Wrap up and where to find David Woo

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, warns that despite stock markets hitting all-time highs, the real economy is sinking fast - private job creation has fallen below recessionary levels seen in 2007, and 90% of US consumers are now worse off than going into both the 2008 financial crisis and the 1929 depression. Using his Titanic metaphor, he explains first class passengers (top 10%) are still at the bar while third class is already in the water. Zeberg predicts a blow-off top with the S&P potentially hitting 8,200 before a crash worse than 2008, driven by central bank hubris that will trigger stagflation when the Fed inevitably intervenes. He's long-term bullish on gold and silver but warns of a short-term pullback as the dollar spikes to 120+ on the DXY during the deflationary bust, and explains why there's no easy way out this time - we've exhausted the free lunch of money printing.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/

Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201

TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H

00:00 Intro and welcome Henrik Zeberg

01:22 Macro view, the real economy is about job creation, not financial markets

04:13 90% of consumers worse off than going into 2008 and 1929

05:58 Titanic metaphor: First class denying while third class already in water

06:56 Chart: ADP private job creation declining to recessionary levels

08:26 Illusion of stability: Stock market disconnect from economy

09:07 Stock market doesn't predict recessions - look at unemployment

11:15 Zeberg business cycle model pointing to recession

14:55 Bond market sniffing out problems - yield curve signals

20:02 Central banks and the Fed: The hubris problem

23:02 2020 changed everything - inflation is back as a factor

25:26 Gold and silver starting to show end game signs

26:20 If Fed intervenes with more stimulus, it creates stagflation

28:03 Henrik's views on gold and silver clarified

30:55 Dollar regime coming - DXY could spike

32:12 Long-term bullish gold/silver but short-term pullback expected

35:35 Navigating different regimes as an investor

38:19 Strong dollar implications

39:06 Current regime still risk-on, riding the blow off top

43:29 Why this recession will be worse than 2008

48:21 No easy way out - we're at the end of the Keynesian curve

49:12 Can we get back to sound money? Only through pain

51:41 Under the radar trend: Realization of how bad consumer really is

53:55 AI won't save us short-term - actually reduces jobs needed

54:25 Wrap up: Think for yourself, do your own research