Conservative leadership popularity gap creates an impossible choice for voters. You're watching Pierre Poilievre get 87% support at the party convention. Solid A. Strong mandate. Clear leadership. But there's a 20-point gap between how much party members like him and how much the rest of Canada does. Mark Carney beats him decisively in personal popularity. That's not a polling fluctuation. That's a fundamental problem when millions of moderate voters who don't carry party cards decide elections.

Gurney calls it a confession disguised as an accusation. When Conservatives complain that Liberals steal their ideas and succeed with them, that's not theft. That's execution. If the other party consistently takes your ideas and does better with them than you can, the problem isn't intellectual property. The problem is you. And here's the part that should terrify Conservative strategists: the last election wasn't a fluke. A fluke doesn't recur. But if you go into the next election with a bombastic US leader meddling in Canadian politics and a leader 20 points behind in personal popularity, that's not luck. That's a pattern you had every reason to expect.

Three groups call themselves conservative. Party members gave Poilievre 87%. Elected officials and staff are largely aligned. But millions of Canadians who identify as conservative but don't follow political nuances? They vote based on six days of attention every four years. That's where elections get decided.

Topics: Conservative leadership problems, Pierre Poilievre popularity gap, Mark Carney advantage, Canadian election strategy, moderate voters

GUEST: Matt Gurney | http://readtheline.ca , @‌mattgurney

Originally aired on 2026-02-03

Winter loneliness hits harder than you think. You're staying in because it's cold, because the ice makes sidewalks dangerous, because your energy is low. That's reasonable. But here's what you don't know: spending more than 20% of your time alone triggers measurable health damage. Not sadness. Actual physical harm comparable to smoking 15 cigarettes daily.

Loneliness is worse than obesity, worse than sedentary living, worse than binge drinking, worse than air pollution. Your emotions aren't just feelings you process internally. They're entirely social experiences that need outlets. When you're sad, that's a signal you need support. When you're angry, something unjust is happening. Without people around you, those signals have nowhere to go. Card explains why the old chemical imbalance theory of mental health is breaking down and what's replacing it.

The hierarchy matters: in-person beats video, video beats phone, phone beats text. Your brain picks up on how real the social experience is. Card's research shows that even companionship without direct interaction, just being around people while you each do your own thing, delivers benefits that isolation can't match.

Topics: winter loneliness, social connection and health, seasonal isolation, emotional well-being, loneliness health risks

GUEST: Kiffer Card | https://theconversation.com/winter-changes-more-than-the-weather-it-changes-how-we-connect-heres-how-to-stay-socially-engaged-273684

Originally aired on 2026-02-03

Canadian military capability deficit creates impossible nuclear weapons debate. You're watching former Chief of Defense Staff Wayne Eyre recommend Canada reconsider its hardline no on nuclear weapons. Trump threatens sovereignty. Japan's Prime Minister questioned their nuclear taboo. South Korea explored programs. You're thinking Canada needs dramatic deterrence now. But you can't defend your own airspace. American F-22s intercepted the Chinese balloon over Canada because you barely have fighters capable of protecting your country.

Shimooka calls the nuclear debate backwards. Canada can barely defend itself with conventional capabilities. You don't need nuclear weapons to threaten a country that can't protect its own borders with basic fighters. The American ambassador already said it: if Canada doesn't have F-35s, America will have to defend Canadian airspace. That's not future tense anymore. The Chinese balloon intercept happened with an American F-22 over Canadian territory because Canada lacked capability. Submarine procurement jumping from four to twelve reveals massive Arctic capability deficit. Even those are conventionally powered, not designed for under-ice operations. One will operate in peri-ice conditions just to patch the security hole.

The nuclear weapons debate assumed Canada's security problem is dramatic deterrence. America still defends Canadian airspace because Canada won't fund conventional capabilities. Submarines matter more than warheads when you can't patrol your own territory. The dependency isn't the nuclear umbrella. It's the conventional capability collapse.

Topics: Canadian military capability deficit, nuclear weapons debate, conventional defense gaps, Arctic submarine procurement, F-35 fighter dependency

GUEST: Richard Shimooka

Originally aired on 2026-02-03