ICYMI - Poilievre: The 87% That Doesn't Matter and the 20 Points That Do

Conservative leadership popularity gap creates an impossible choice for voters. You're watching Pierre Poilievre get 87% support at the party convention. Solid A. Strong mandate. Clear leadership. But there's a 20-point gap between how much party members like him and how much the rest of Canada does. Mark Carney beats him decisively in personal popularity. That's not a polling fluctuation. That's a fundamental problem when millions of moderate voters who don't carry party cards decide elections.

Gurney calls it a confession disguised as an accusation. When Conservatives complain that Liberals steal their ideas and succeed with them, that's not theft. That's execution. If the other party consistently takes your ideas and does better with them than you can, the problem isn't intellectual property. The problem is you. And here's the part that should terrify Conservative strategists: the last election wasn't a fluke. A fluke doesn't recur. But if you go into the next election with a bombastic US leader meddling in Canadian politics and a leader 20 points behind in personal popularity, that's not luck. That's a pattern you had every reason to expect.

Three groups call themselves conservative. Party members gave Poilievre 87%. Elected officials and staff are largely aligned. But millions of Canadians who identify as conservative but don't follow political nuances? They vote based on six days of attention every four years. That's where elections get decided.

Topics: Conservative leadership problems, Pierre Poilievre popularity gap, Mark Carney advantage, Canadian election strategy, moderate voters

GUEST: Matt Gurney | http://readtheline.ca , @‌mattgurney

Originally aired on 2026-02-03