It is Friday, February 13th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market. In this evening edition, we analyze massive market corrections forcing us to bail on Niagara and George Mason while holding our convictions on Princeton, Yale, and Iona.

We dive deep into the late-night board on Polymarket and Kalshi to find value in the Big Ten and Mountain West matchups. Our analysts explain why the odds are shifting toward Wisconsin at home and why Boise State is a strong play against UNLV. Whether you are tracking movement on prediction market apps or looking for last-minute college basketball odds, this episode covers the volume-driven shifts you need to know.

• Bail: Niagara & George Mason
• Hold: Princeton, Yale, & Iona
• Late Adds: Wisconsin & Boise State

Questions? Reach out to feedback@predictionmarketshq.com.

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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It is Friday, February 13, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

With the NBA heading into the All-Star break, sharp money is flooding the college basketball markets. Today, we break down five specific picks where the probability is mispriced. We leverage real-time data from Polymarket and Kalshi to identify where the betting value lies, from Niagara's perimeter shooting advantage to Villanova's efficiency margin against Butler.

We also reveal our Dog of the Day, highlighting a high-variance environment where the current odds don't match the true win probability. Whether you are tracking the MAAC or the A-10, this episode provides the data-driven insights needed to navigate tonight's board.

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Read Transcript

It is Friday, February 13, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

In this episode of Prediction Market HQ, the team conducts a deep-dive portfolio audit. We analyze a frustrating moneyline loss on the KINGS and look at how the odds shifted during the PACERS and BUCKS matchup. Marcus breaks down the systemic failure in pricing the Bobby Portis prop and why paying a premium for 'safe' bets on the SEAHAWKS is a losing long-term strategy on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

We also discuss 'Missed Alpha' in the Joel Embiid markets and how to adjust your risk calibration to ensure your winning bet translates to maximum PnL. Whether you are trading NBA spreads or NFL team totals, understanding the implied probability of these odds is key to becoming a profitable trader.

Questions or comments? Reach out to: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Read Transcript