After an early sell-off, equities rebounded during the trading session following President Trump’s comments that further negotiations with Iran - and a potential deal - remain within reach in the coming days. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 moved back into positive territory for the year, while oil prices slipped below USD 100 per barrel once again. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on cybersecurity and explains why we remain constructive on the theme going forward.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (07:08) - Cybersecurity in focus: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (10:41) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Last week’s market rally was driven by ceasefire optimism and a sharp drop in oil prices, lifting equities despite growing signs of economic strain and energy‑led inflation pressures, although US core inflation in March (excluding energy) remained contained. Over the weekend, geopolitical risks moved back to centre stage as failed US–Iran talks and an effective embargo on Iranian oil pushed energy prices higher, shifting markets into a cautious risk‑off stance. The earnings season begins in earnest today, with results set to test whether corporate profits can withstand rising costs and heightened uncertainty. Notable companies reporting today include LVMH and Goldman Sachs. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, highlights an improvement in market breadth in US equities, and explains why semiconductor stocks are in favour.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:39) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (08:52) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

The US and Iran have agreed to a two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, but the deal continues to look fragile. Markets have reacted swiftly, with crude oil prices falling sharply while gold and equity markets rebounded. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping energy supply risks firmly in focus. In this complex backdrop, how attractive is the current market risk‑reward, and how might the geopolitical landscape evolve from here?

Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, to assess the implications for global markets and China. They discuss whether investors should chase the recent rebound or stay defensive, the outlook for oil, gold, and the US dollar, and why China’s equity market has shown relative resilience. The conversation also covers China’s economic momentum, sector preferences, and the role of defensive, value, and high‑dividend stocks -- particularly Chinese banks -- in navigating ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty.

This episode was recorded on 9 April, 2026.

• (00:00) - A fragile ceasefire and the market rebound
• (02:00) - Assessing the market risk-reward, geopolitical landscape
• (04:44) - Has the USD/gold long-term trend changed?
• (09:22) - How vulnerable is China to high oil prices?
• (14:58) - Green shoots in China’s economy – signal or seasonal?
• (19:05) - China’s consumption sector – staples vs discretionary
• (24:02) - Views on Chinese banks

Equity markets are trading higher amid renewed optimism that the ceasefire will hold, reinforced by Israel’s signal that it is ready to enter direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rebound following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Investors’ focus now turns to today’s US CPI data for March. In this episode, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his perspective on what lies ahead for the US dollar.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (06:45) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions
• (10:00) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

The last 24 hours were a game of two halves for equity markets – Europe and the US rallied as they celebrated the Middle East ceasefire and crude oil ended Wednesday 16% lower. But then the cracks in the terms of the ceasefire appeared – Israel attacked Lebanon, which Iran said breached the agreement, and Iran claimed that it has the right to enrich uranium, which the US says it does not. And so, oil rose again and Asian equity markets fell. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the podcast today to unravel the reaction of commodity markets to the ongoing situation. He explains how the ceasefire fits into a pattern in which extreme price spikes trigger both behavioural and political responses, and that markets respond in a monochrome fashion. Tune in to find out more about the possible shades of grey that need consideration.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (05:38) - Reaction of commodities to ceasefire: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (10:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Oil fell the most in nearly six years, while stocks surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before a Trump-imposed deadline, giving markets a brief respite from Middle East–driven turbulence. Asian equity markets jumped, Treasuries rallied, the US dollar weakened, and precious metals advanced. Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategist, discusses the implications for bond markets, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to outline what to expect from the upcoming earnings season.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (06:02) - Bond market update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research
• (09:55) - Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
• (13:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Equity gains on Monday were modest and fragile. Risk appetite is fading as investors focus on President Trump’s deadline, rising oil prices, and Middle East tensions. Strong US payrolls on Friday contrast with weaker services employment and rising input costs on Monday, leaving uncertainty over whether inflation pressures will persist. Technology remains a key theme: strong AI demand supported Samsung and Broadcom, while potential IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI point to rising competition for a limited pool of capital. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, comments on developments in energy markets ahead of President Trump’s deadline.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:29) - Energy: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
• (10:01) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Despite a significant selloff following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global emerging market equities have demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience. What explains this contained drawdown, and how should investors differentiate across regions even as volatility persists?

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:11) - Current resilience of emerging markets
• (01:59) - Earnings revisions and relative performance
• (03:18) - Market sensitivity and the nature of the drawdown
• (04:23) - Energy costs and financial conditions
• (06:16) - Monetary policy impact and US dollar outlook
• (07:00) - AI as a growth driver in emerging markets
• (07:30) - Outlook for EM equities
• (09:14) - Closing remarks and legal information