BEEF: I've been saying for a few weeks now it would not be a bad idea to keep well ahead of your needs. I’m doubling down on this as the reduced production we’ve seen this year is impacting product availability and pricing. Inventories will be tighter still with reduced production and increasing demand. Last week’s harvest was 521k head, running a full 10% behind last year’s reduced production. Markets are responding hard to this tight inventory, everything, I mean everything is moving higher. Led by middle meats, ribeyes, tenderloins, and strip loins, but all cuts are seeing increases. I’ve seen a couple analysts have the opinion this surge will scare off consumers and turn back down. I hope they are right and I’m wrong, but right now all I see in increases and strong demand. I’d buy now, waiting will cost you money.

Chicken will be the alternate protein of choice for consumers moving from higher priced beef. Wings are lower a third week, I don’t see this lasting much longer while boneless skinless randoms and tenders are moving higher. I do expect chicken increases to continue. Proudction is running about 2% ahead of last year and demand is keeping the product moving.

On the Avian Flu front, another difficult week, 20 new cases reported affect 3.5 million birds, mostly egg layers. The northern migration is in full swing now, I do hope we get some relief soon

Soy and canola have another strong week moving higher. Its been so long since we’ve seen a bull market in soy oil but demand and moving product to biofuels has spurred this market higher. Not so for corn and wheat continuing to trade sideways.

Pork bellies leveled off at $153 same as last week. Bacon prices will be moving up but hopefully we get a few weeks breather. Loins, butts, ribs, all still a good value. Pork continues to be a great protein value.

The dairy market went on a tear last week, giving back almost all the gains this week. As of Thursday’s CME close, butter is down 16, barrel and block are both down 2. We’ll see what next week brings.

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Beef production continues restrained to keep prices up and packer losses as small as possible. 516K head produced last week, same as the previous week. Heading into spring this is keeping the beef supply tight and prices supported. We have the smallest beef herd since 1951 when there were half as many people in the country. That is not turning around anytime soon. Regarding current market prices, everything is going up. Ribeyes and strip loins will be leading prices higher for the next few weeks. Grind demand is strong and prices moving up as well. Chuck had a nice few weeks of declines, that is over, rounds never lost support and continue to move higher. I do think middle meats and thin meats, flanks, skirts, sirloin flap, will all be tight and expensive, already looking at Cinco de Mayo. We are at the start of a steady move higher, I’d advise buy sooner, rather than later, waiting will cost you money. Keep well ahead of your needs, this market is going to be expensive and tight.

Poultry production continues to run about 2% ahead of last year. Demand is good, production is strong, pricing is holding up, though wings declined a second week in a row. Boneless skinless breasts and tenders… holding steady. It’s a good time to menu chicken. On the Avian flu front, its ugly. 23 new cases reported in the last week affecting 4.8Millioin birds, 4 million of those birds were egg layers. I’m not feeling good about spring migration.

Soy markets continue to climb. Its been so long since we’ve seen a bull market in soy. Soy oil and canola oil, both moving higher with good export demand and higher biofuel usage. We may see this plateau in the next couple weeks, but right now, soy is on a tear. Corn and wheat… not so much . Still trading sideways and I don’t see that changing.

Pork bellies continue to march higher, today’s close $153 up from last week $148. I don’t think we are done by any stretch. Bacon will be going up. Contrary to rest of the pork complex, plenty of inventory, prices are good. Yes, menu pork.

Butter took a huge run up this week. Thru Thursday’s close on the CME butter is up 24! That’s a big move. Barrel and block both up 3 but butter is the big mover. We’ll see if the markets hold these recent gains, but for now all signs point to a higher dairy costs.

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Beef is tight. Bellies are climbing. Birds are under watch. The seasonal shift may bring more than warmer weather.

BEEF: Production is down 10% YTD, with last week at just 516K head. The smallest herd in 75 years keeps supply tight as spring demand builds. Strips and ribeyes look ready to lead a March run – and thin meats may feel it first.

POULTRY: Production is up 2%, but hatch rates under 79% raise questions. Wings dip while breasts hold steady. Thirteen new avian flu cases hit 550K birds – just as migration ramps up.

GRAINS: Soy keeps climbing on export deals and biofuel demand. Corn and wheat stay stuck. Three weeks into the rally, and now we see if it has legs.

PORK: Bellies jumped to $146, nearing $150 faster than expected. Bacon will follow, and elevated pricing could stick into summer. The rest of pork remains a value, but for how long?

DAIRY: Barrel up 5. Block up 6. Butter up 7. Dairy is clearly moving higher, and it doesn’t look finished yet.

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