Episodios

  • Market Flash of January 13, 2026

    Market Flash of January 13, 2026
    Jan 13 2026
    In this episode:

    • The year opens with a strong start for markets after a challenging December: the historically positive signal from the first days of the S&P 500 reinforces the core message from the end of 2025, namely the transition into a new market phase that is less concentrated and increasingly driven by sector rotation.
    • The political and geopolitical backdrop is already complex, as is typical of a mid-term year in Trump’s second term, with fiscal, monetary and regulatory policies seemingly moving in the same direction, supported by an unprecedented push for innovation.
    • From a technical perspective, very constructive signals are emerging: upside breakouts across European indices, the S&P 500 approaching the 7,000 level and, above all, a continued broadening of market participation.
    • As earnings season gets underway, attention will focus on AI-related capex and guidance, against a backdrop of exceptionally low volatility, elevated positioning and strong retail participation—factors that argue for a more cautious approach.
    The key message for 2026 remains constructive but selective: global equities are favored, with strong rotations, regional divergences and risks to monitor, alongside attractive opportunities particularly in Europe and Asia, in infrastructure-related themes, defense and sectors benefiting from productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence.
    For more insights, listen to the latest episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.
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    10 m
  • Market Flash of December 16, 2025

    Market Flash of December 16, 2025
    Dec 16 2025
    In this episode:

    • We are approaching the end of an extraordinary year, while looking ahead to a 2026 that is likely to be more volatile but potentially richer in opportunities, provided portfolios are managed with a more dynamic and flexible approach.
    • After one of the worst starts on record, with the S&P 500 down nearly 15% by early April, the market staged an exceptional rebound: eight consecutive months of gains and a recovery of around 37%, a move historically seen almost only after deep bear markets.
    • The rally was overwhelmingly driven by artificial intelligence: roughly 80% of the upside came from just 73 stocks, with Nvidia, Broadcom and Google alone contributing more than all non-AI sectors combined, highlighting an unprecedented level of concentration.
    • Commodities have been among the top-performing asset classes of 2025, but deep fractures are emerging between physical and paper markets, driven by geopolitics, supply concentration and strategic stockpiling by central banks.
    In a world where geography matters more than geology, politics more than price, and physical assets more than derivatives, these shifts represent a crucial input for strategic asset allocation heading into 2026. For more insights, listen to the latest episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.
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    14 m
  • Market Flash of November 25, 2025

    Market Flash of November 25, 2025
    Nov 25 2025
    In this episode:
    After weeks of warning signals, a sharp correction has arrived, concentrated in the most crowded trades:

    • The Momentum factor is down 25% from its highs and Bitcoin has erased all year-to-date gains, while market liquidity dries up and investors are forced to cut exposure rapidly.
    • Volatility is not driven by panic but by excess leverage: systematic funds were fully invested, retail investors heavily exposed through ETFs and derivatives, and asset manager cash levels at twenty-year lows.
    • The core issue is AI: the main driver of US growth and S&P 500 performance, now under scrutiny for its dependence on credit, sustainability of cash flows and “circular financing”; Nvidia’s latest figures fuel concerns that the cycle may be entering a more mature and fragile phase.
    • The global economy is running at different speeds: Europe remains weak with Germany stuck in structural stagnation, while in the US the strong aggregate demand masks a “K-shaped” divide between high-income consumers and households with shrinking savings.
    • Despite tensions, earnings season is solid with 15% year-on-year growth and broader sector participation: a setup that favors healthier rotations and a market less dependent on a handful of names.
    In this transition phase, prudence and resilience remain essential, but the correction is creating new opportunities: volatility can become a chance to build positions in a market that is finally broader and more balanced. For more insights, listen to the latest episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.
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    11 m
  • Market Flash of November 11, 2025

    Market Flash of November 11, 2025
    Nov 11 2025
    In this episode:

    We’ve entered the final stretch of an exceptional year, but signs of change are multiplying.

    • After six consecutive months of gains, the S&P 500 is showing its first cracks: extreme concentration in the “Magnificent 7” and recent weakness in the AI sector mark the start of a more selective phase.
    • High valuations and early profit warnings in consumer companies reveal a polarized U.S. economy, where the strength of the wealthy coexists with the fragility of middle-income households.
    • In the background, the U.S.–China truce highlights that the real battleground remains technology, while automation accelerates and reshapes the labor market.
    In an environment of rising volatility and sector rotations, it’s time to refocus on real value: prudence, stock picking, and resilient portfolios will be key in the months ahead. To learn more, listen to the new episode of the Market Flash podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.
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    12 m
  • Market Flash of October 28, 2025

    Market Flash of October 28, 2025
    Oct 28 2025
    In this episode:
    • The market remains solid but increasingly selective, with rising volatility forcing several funds to cut exposure through ETFs.
    • In the United States, signs of stress are emerging in private credit and among regional banks, while retail investors continue to dominate with “buy the dip” strategies and spectacular short squeezes.
    • The crypto sector is experiencing a shock in altcoins, while gold is correcting after excessive leverage. The coming earnings season will be a key test for AI, with major players — including OpenAI — introducing the first “agentic” features.
    • Meanwhile, the federal shutdown enters its fourth week, weighing on confidence. With half of S&P 500 companies set to report results, a phase begins in which stock picking becomes central again.
    To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the podcast series by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.
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    9 m
  • Market Flash of October 14, 2025

    Market Flash of October 14, 2025
    Oct 14 2025
    In this episode:
    • September surprised everyone with the strongest S&P 500 performance in fifteen years: six consecutive months of gains and a full-on melt-up phase, fueled by strong volumes, record flows into leveraged ETFs and call options. Even lagging sectors like biotech and unprofitable tech have come back to life.
    • Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown is reigniting concerns over deficits and public spending, while precious metals soar: gold has broken above $4,000, silver trades over $50, and platinum and palladium are rallying sharply. A move that reflects both euphoria and a search for safety amid abundant liquidity.
    • Artificial intelligence remains the central theme but is entering its “phase two”: less hype, more execution. The big players are building an increasingly circular ecosystem, focusing on software integration and real-world applications, while questions grow around returns and sustainability.
    • The Pharma sector is also back in focus after the Trump–Pfizer deal, which reshapes incentives for domestic production and adds a pragmatic twist to policy. Between liquidity, confidence in AI and evolving fiscal priorities, the coming months will reveal where real value is being created.
    • In Europe, the Eurostoxx 50 has finally broken higher, led by pharma, luxury and mining stocks, even as France and Germany remain fragile. The auto sector faces additional headwinds — margin pressure, credit risks, and operational vulnerabilities highlighted by the Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack.I
    It’s a fascinating but fragile picture: enthusiasm and caution coexist in an overstretched market. The key watchpoints ahead remain liquidity, AI and economic policy — the three pillars that will shape the next market phase.
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    14 m
  • Market Flash of September 30, 2025

    Market Flash of September 30, 2025
    Sep 30 2025
    In this episode:
    • The MSCI World ends September up +35% from April lows, powered by the AI boom that lifted giants like Intel, Nvidia, Micron, and Alibaba. The “Magnificent 7” now account for over 40% of the S&P 500, but beneath the calm of the indices lies record volatility in individual stocks.
    • The Fed remains in focus: after dovish signals, markets are watching closely to see whether the two rate cuts expected by year-end will materialize. Meanwhile, mortgages and cyclical sectors are showing signs of recovery.
    • Gold shines (+43% YTD, +130% over three years), fueled by central banks and retail investors, while copper surges after the Indonesia mining accident, confirming its role as the key metal of the energy transition.
    • The US economy still appears resilient, supported by AI investments and top-end consumer spending, though inequality continues to widen.
    To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the podcast series curated by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.
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    9 m
  • Market Flash of September 16, 2025

    Market Flash of September 16, 2025
    Sep 16 2025
    In this episode:
    • The S&P 500 keeps climbing, up more than 30% in just five months, driven by the AI boom and “mechanical” flows such as buybacks and systematic funds. Oracle shocked markets with a +36% move in a single day, while AI-related companies now account for 40% of the index’s market cap.
    • On the macro side, U.S. labor data is showing cracks, with downward payroll revisions and rising unemployment, even as the Fed continues cutting rates.
    • In Europe, the picture remains fragile: inflation is proving stickier than expected, France faces political turmoil, and spreads are widening to multi-year highs. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are intensifying with Russia, while China, Russia and India are strengthening ties.
    More than chasing the rally, the key now is to understand whether market strength rests on solid foundations or on extraordinary factors. The motto still applies: don’t fight AI and the Fed — but caution is warranted in such a one-sided consensus. For more insights, listen to the new episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.
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    11 m
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